The binomial distribution is the probability

distribution that results from doing a binomial

experiment. Binomial experiments have the
following properties:

1. the experiment consists of n repeated trials.

2. Each trial has two possible outcomes, a
success and a failure.
3. P(success)=p (and thus: P(failure)=1p), for all
trials.
4. The trials are independent, which means that
the outcome of one trial does not affect the
outcomes of any other trials.
 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION.

If a binomial trial can result in a success with a probability p

and a failure with probability q=1p, then the probability

distribution of the binomial random variable X, the number of

successes in n independent trials is

n r nr
br; n, p p q
where: r
n = number of trials
X = number of successes of which probability we
are computing
p = probability of success in one trial
q = probability of failure in one trial
Binomial Experiment also known as Bernoulli trial.

Binomial Probability - the probability that an n-

trial binomial experiment results in exactly r
successes, when the probability of success on
an individual trial P.

Cumulative Binomial it refers to the probability

that the binomial random variable falls within a
specified range.
Binomial Distribution
If a binomial trial can result in a success with probability p and a
failure probability q = 1-p, then the probability distribution of the
binomial random variable x, the number of successes in n
independent trial is ;
n r nr
br; n, p p q
r
The mean and variance of the binomial distribution b(x;n;p) are :
Mean = n(p) and variance = n(p)(q)
1. You are about to take a multiple-choice test with 20 questions. Each
question has 5 possible choices but only one choice is correct. If you
were to guess randomly on all questions,
a) what is the probability of guessing exactly 3 correct answers?
b) what is the probability of guessing fewer than 4 correct answers?
c) what is the probability of guessing at least 3 correct answers?

2. Over a long period of time it has been observed that a given

marksman can hit a target on a single trial with probability equal to
.80. Suppose he fires four shots at the target.
a) What is the probability that he will hit the target exactly two
times? = .1536
b) What is the probability that he will hit the target at least once?
= .9984
 MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

The binomial experiment becomes a multinomial experiment

if we let each trial to have more than two possible outcomes

An experiment consisting of n identical, independent

trials, each with k possible outcomes.
A multinomial experiment is one that possesses the
following properties:
- the experiment consists of n repeated trials
- There are k possible outcomes to each trial
- Constant probabilities of the k outcomes
- the repeated trials are independent
 MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
If a given trial can result in the k outcomes E1, E2,
, Ek with probabilities p1, p2, ., pk, then the
probability distribution of the random variables X1,
X2, ., Xk, representing the number of occurrences
for E1, E2, ., Ek in n independent trials is
1. Suppose a card is drawn randomly from an ordinary deck of
cards, then put back in deck. This exercise is repeated 5 times.
What is the probability of getting 1 spade, 1 heart, 1 diamond
and 2 clubs? = .0586
2. A box contains 5 red, 4 white balls and 3 blue balls. A ball is
selected at random from the box and its color noted. Find the
probability that out of 6 balls, 3 are red, 2 are white and 1 is
blue. = .120
3. According to the theory of genetics, a certain cross of guinea
pigs will result in red, black and white offspring in the ratio of
8:4:4. Find the probability that among 8 such offspring 5 will be
red, 2 black and 1 white = .0820
 HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
The hypergeometric probability distribution is useful for
determining the probability of a number of occurrences
when sampling without replacement. It counts the number of
successes (x) in n selections, without replacement, from a
population of N elements, S of which are successes and (N-S)
of which are failures.

k N-k
x n-x
h(x; N,, n , k)
N
where:
X = number of successes n
n = number of trials or the sample size
N = population from which the sample is taken
k = total number of items in N which are assigned as successes.
A hypergeometric experiment is on that possesses the following
two properties:

1. A random sample of size n is selected from the population of

N items
2. K of the N items maybe classified as successes and N k
classified as failures
1. Suppose we randomly select 5 cards without replacement
from an ordinary deck of cards. What is the probability of
getting exactly 2 red cards? = 0.3251
2. If 7 cards are dealt from an ordinary deck of cards what is the
probability that at least one of them will be a queen? = 0.4496
3. If 5 cards are dealt from a deck of cards, what is the
probability that 3 will be hearts? = 0.081

4. From a lot of 10 missiles, 4 are selected at random and

fired. If the lot contains 3 defective missiles that will not fire,
what is the probability that
b. All four will fire
c At most two will not fire
Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution

- If the population of size N can be partitioned

into the k cells
A1, A2, . Ak with a1, a2, . ak elements, respectively,
then the probability distribution of the random
variables X1, X2, ., Xk, representing the number
of elements selected from A1, A2, . Ak in a random
sample of sixe n is
1. A foreign student club lists as its members 2 Canadians,
3 Japanese, 5 Italians and 2 Germans. If a committee of 4
is selected at random, find the probability that all
nationalities are represented? 0. 1212 all nationalities
except the Italians are represented? = 0.3429
2. A group of 10 individuals is used for a biological case
study. The group contains 3 people with blood type O, 4
with blood type A, and 3 with blood type B. What is the
probability that a random sample of 5 will contain I
person with blood type O, 2 people with blood type A,
and 2 people with blood type B? = 0.2143
 NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

The negative binomial distribution is useful for determining

the probability of the number of trials made until the desired
number of successes are achieved in a sequence of Bernoulli
trials. It counts the number of trials X to achieve the number
of successes s with p being the probability of success on each
trial.

n 1 r n r
b * (n; r , p) p q , x r , r 1, r 2,
r 1
n = is the no. of trials required to produce r successes
r = is the number of successes
p= probability of success of an individual trial
Negative Binomial Random variable
it is also called Pascal Distribution
-it is the number of x of repeated trials to
produce r successes

b* (n; r, p ) = C
n-1 r-1 (p r) (1-p)n-r
Negative Binomial
1. Find the probability that a man flipping a coin gets fourth
head on the ninth flip. = .1094
2. Bob is a basketball player. He is a 70% free throw shooter
during the championship period. What is the probability that
Bob makes his third free throw on his fifth shot? = .1852
3. Suppose the probability is 0.80 that any given person will
believe a tail about life after death. What is the probability
that:
a) The sixth person to hear it is the 4th one to believe it?= .1638
b) The 3rd person to hear this tale is the 1st to believe it? = .032
 GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

Within the context of a binomial experiment, in which

the outcome of each of n independent trials can be
classified as a success (S) or a failure (F), the geometric
random variable counts the number of trials until the
first success..

n 1
g ( x; p) pq x 1, 2, 3,...
Geometric Distribution it is a special case of
negative binomial, it deals with the number of trials
required for a single success. The number of
successes (r) is equal to 1.

Bob is a basketball player. He is a 70% free throw

shooter during the championship period. What is
the probability that Bob makes his first free throw
on his fifth shot? = .00567
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION
The Poisson probability distribution is useful for determining the
probability of a number of occurrences over a given period of time
or within a given area or volume. That is, the Poisson random
variable counts occurrences over a continuous interval of time or
space. It can also be used to calculate approximate binomial
probabilities when the probability of success is small (p 0.05) and
the number of trials is large (n 20).

Poisson probabilities are useful when there are large number

of independent trials with a small probability of success on a
single trial and the variables occur over a period time
e- x
P ( x;) = --------------- x = 0, 1, 2
x!
Where is the average number of outcomes occurring in the given
time interval e is the base of natural logarithms (e=2.71828...).
The Poisson Approximation of the Binomial
Distribution

In a binomial experiment, when n is large (n

30), and p or q is close to zero such that
np 5 or nq 5, the resulting binomial
probability distribution may be approximated
using the Poisson distribution.
with np
Poisson
1. The average number of homes sold by Tan Realty company is 2
homes per day. What is the probability that exactly 3 homes
will be sold tomorrow? = .180
2. Suppose the average number of lion seen on a 1-day Safari is
5. What is the probability that tourist will see fewer than four
lions on the next 1-day safari? = .2650
3. On the average a certain intersection results in 3 traffic
accidents per month. What is the probability that in any given
month at this section:
a) Exactly 5 accidents will occur? = .1008
b) Less than 3 accidents will occur? = .4232
A company makes electric motors. The probability an electric
motor is defective is 0.01. What is the probability that a sample
of 300 electric motors will contain exactly 5 defective motors? =
.10099

In certain industry facility accidents occur infrequently. It is

known that the probability of an accident on any given day is
.005 and accidents are independent of each other.
a. What is the probability that any given period of 400 days
there will be no accident on one day? = .135
b. What is the probability that there are at most three days with
an accident?
 Additional Problems:

A. A safety engineer claims that only 40% of all workers wear

safety helmets when they eat lunch at the workplace.
Assuming that his claim is right, find the probability that
4 of 6 workers randomly chosen will be wearing their
helmets while having lunch at the workplace.

B. If a pair of dice is tossed 6 times, what is the probability

of obtaining a total 0f 7 or 11 twice, a matching pair
once, and any other combination thrice?

C. A card is drawn from a deck of cards, the result recorded,

and the card replaced. If the experiment is repeated 5
times, what is the probability of obtaining 2spades and 1
heart?
 D. In a certain district in Manila the need for money to
buy drugs is stated as the reason for 75% of all
thefts. Find the probability that among the next five
theft cases reported in this district,
a. exactly two resulted from the need for money
to buy drugs
b. at most three resulted from the need for
money to buy drug

E. An airline claims that 98% of passengers with tickets

actually show up for the flight. The airline overbooked a
flight by selling 145 tickets for the aircraft that has 138
seats. What is the probability that the number of
passengers with tickets who show up is between 135
and 138, inclusive?
F. The probabilities are .40, .20, .30 and .10
respectively, that a delegate to a certain seminar
arrived by air, bus, automobile or train. What is
the probability that among 9 delegates randomly
selected at this seminar, 3 arrived by air, 3 by
bus,1 by automobile and 2 arrived by train.

G. box contains 5 red and 10 white marbles. If 8

marbles are to be chosen at random without
replacement. Determine the probability that
a). 4 will be red
b). All will be white
 H. The ABC company manufactures toy robots. About 1 toy
robot per 100 does not work. You purchase 35 ABC toy
robots. What is the probability that exactly 4 do not work

I. From a lot of 10 missiles, 4 are selected at random and

fired. If the lot contains 3 defective missiles that will not fire,
what is the probability that
b. All four will fire
c At most two will not fire

J. The probability that a student pilot passes the written test for a
private pilots license is 0.70. Find the probability that the
student will pass the test
a. on the first try
In an NBA championship series, the team which wins four games out
of seven will be the winner. Suppose that team A has probability 0.55
of winning over the team B and both teams A and B face each other
in the championship games.
a. What is the probability that team A will win the series in six
games?

b. What is the probability that team A will win the series?

c. If both teams face each other in a regional playoff series and
the winner is decided by winning three out of five games, what is the
probability that team A will win the playoff?