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Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping: Prague
Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping: Prague
Fast-start technology
roadmapping
Prague
Thursday 9th October 2003, 09:00 - 13:00
Dr Robert Phaal
Centre for Technology Management
Workshop aim
To provide:
Agenda
09:00 Overview
09:10 Technology roadmapping - principles & practice
10:30 Break
11:00 T-Plan fast-start approach
11:20 Group activity - the bicycle of the future
12:30 Discussion - getting started
13:00 Review and close
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Technology roadmapping -
principles & practice
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Market M1 M2
P1 P2 P3
Product
P4
T1 T2
Technology
T3 T4
R&D RD 1 RD 2 RD 4 RD 6
programmes RD 3 RD 5
prediction / investment
Time is a key dimension
Short term Medium term Long term
Uncertainty / risk of
New (?):
- Markets
- Products
- Technologies
- Capabilities
- Organisational structures
- Distribution channels
- Competition
Time
Operations Innovation Strategy
qualitative focus
quantitative focus
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Performance
Technology as a dynamic resource
Technology New dominant
discontinuity technology
(disruptive??)
Base Technology S curves
Current
dominant Shape influenced by:
Key
technology Market demand
Scientific knowledge
Pacing
Emerging Turbulence Investment / innovation
Adapted from Bower & Christensen, 1995
Time
Strategic Postures
1. Shape the future 2. Adapt to the future 3. Reserve the right to play
Performance
Performance
Performance
Time Courtney et al (HBR, 1997) Time Time
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Technology roadmapping
Relationship to the strategic planning process
Market Information
Where are the
boundaries of
the roadmapping
Product-Market analysis process?
Technology Assessment
Identification of Technology
Available / Feasible / Possible Source: EIRMA, 1997
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Technology roadmapping
Two extremes
Project 3
management
Synchronise Corporate
2 planning
Forecasting Product
Persuade Portfolio
1 planning management
Flexibility of roadmapping
Flexibility is a key strength (and challenge) of the roadmapping
approach, in terms of:
The wide range of aims that roadmapping can contribute towards
The timeframe covered by the roadmap (past and future)
The structure of the roadmap (layers and sub-layers), which can be adapted to
fit the particular application
The process that is followed to develop and maintain the roadmap/s
The graphical format that is selected to present information and communicate
the roadmap
The set of existing processes, tools and information sources in the firm, which
the roadmap and roadmapping process need to integrate with
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Single layer
Long range
planning
Graph
Generic TRM Text
Knowledge asset
planning
Pictorial
Programme
planning
Flow
Process
planning
Integration
planning
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Technology /
Competences / resources
Knowledge (know-how)
Other resources:
Skills / Partnerships / Suppliers /
Facilities / Infrastructure / Organisation /
Standards / Science / Finance / R&D Projects
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Technology roadmaps
Examples of applications
Motorola
- To encourage business managers to give proper attention to the technological future
- To provide a vehicle for organising the forecasting process
- To communicate to design & development engineers and marketing personnel which
technologies will be required in future products
Lucas
- To provide integrated project planning for engineering systems
- To supply sound technological inputs to the budget process
External influences
External
1 2 3 4
Influences 1.
2.
System 3.
Demonstrator 4.
.
Principal Participants/Collaborators
Time Window
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Business Planning
PP+TRMs
GapAnalysis
Gap Analysis
Gap Analysis
Benchmarking Acquisition
External : Benchmarking
Benchmarking Planning
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Markets Make Buy
Competitors Acquisitions
Technology
Technology
Technologies Technology R&D JVs
Audit
Audit
... Audit Projects Licensing
Technology Base
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Ongoing
Best practice Cost reduction & efficiency improvements
Evolve
E capability E-business fulfilment
Environmental
Colours relate to
Key: Requires investment
existing sub-themes
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Industry E
E Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties
P
drivers I
Performance
Evolution of required and desirable functional
measures performance of road transport systems of the future
and targets
80-85% of journeys Growth in personal mobility (70% of Individual 2010: Passenger 2015: 150% 2031: 57% increase in Cheap,
by car 39,40,103 drivers use car for leisure day trips time numbers through increase in UK road traffic, safe,
75% of all journeys every week or month; 50% expect to be budget for UK airports international air compared to 1996 80,103 reliable,
are under 5 miles making more by 2020) 42 travel increase by 50% 30 traffic; 100% clean
and 45% are less remains increase in 2031: 40% increase convenient,
Journey times increasing (70% longer 2010: 20-50% 2012: Bicycle in bus / coach
than 2 miles 31 constant ? domestic, comfortable
by 2016 in peak travel periods) 67 increase in European journeys vehicle miles,
compared to transport
road passenger and double
31
Nearly one third of Vehicles sold increasingly as Increasing 1995 1 compared to 1996 1 for all
UK households do lifestyle choices ? complexity of haulage traffic 13,80
Key: Mobility & congestion Lifestyle & attitudes Demographics Health, safety & security
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comfortable,
clean and
Increased mobile and home working
secure
Continued growth of transport
More single person households Continued growth of cities and towns
South East for all
Consumer demand for greater variety, quality and performance of products and services
Aim for 2005: 70% user 2010: 80% user 2020: 85%
equitable satisfaction with satisfaction with user
mobility all transport all transport satisfaction
Vehicle
(same price modes (measure modes with all adaptability
for same of convenience) transport
journey for modes
2010: Vehicle security (resistance to attack) 5 Urban people
Society
all groups
in society) - Door locks: 5 minutes; Secure storage area in vehicle: 5 transport
minutes
- Alarm systems: 5 minutes; Immobilisers: 20 minutes; Window
glass: 2 minutes Effective
selling and
2005: Road 2010: Road traffic 2020: Road traffic noise reduced
traffic noise noise reduced by by 6dBA;
customer
reduced by 3dBA 4dBA Homologated noise reduction of support
from 1998 levels 4dBA and 8dBA for light and
heavy vehicles, respectively
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Sustainable
Continuous improvement in terms of range, life, safety and vehicle fuel
Increasing Pilot trials and local Hydrogen fuel
performance; development of legislation and standards
cell and engine
fuelled vehicles
Aims:
To develop a first-cut technology roadmap for Faraday Partnership,
bringing together industrial and research communities
To collect, structure and share knowledge about recent and future
developments in markets and technology, together with requirements
and capabilities of future applications
To identify key emerging strategic issues, research challenges,
and way forward
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Applications 3 3) Applications
- Map
2b 2b - Research challenges
- Skills
Technology 1b - Way forward
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Useful references
Willyard and McClees (1987), Motorola's Technology Roadmap process, Research Management, Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19
EIRMA (1997) Technology Roadmapping - delivering business vision, Working Group Report No 52
Groenveld (1997) Roadmapping integrates business and technology, Research Technology Management, Vol 40, No. 5, pp. 48-55
Kostoff, R.N. (1997), Science and Technology Roadmaps, Defense Technical Information Center,
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/kostoff/index.html
Garcia & Bray (1997) Fundamentals of technology roadmapping, Sandia National Lab, http://www.sandia/gov SAND97-0665
Schaller(1999) master roadmap bibliography: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rschalle/master.html
Kappel (2001) Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future, Journal of Product Innovation Management,
Vol 18, pp39-50
Research Technology Management - special edition on technology roadmapping, Vol 42, No. 2, March 2003 (5 papers, including
Domino Printing Sciences, Lucent Technologies, Roche and Rockwell Automation experience)
OEM Roadmaps - lots of links to (mainly) sector roadmaps: http://www.oemroadmaps.com
US Department of Energy guide to applying science and technology roadmapping in environmental management (Draft), DoE-EM50,
July 2000, http://emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/links.html
Australian guide to developing technology roadmaps - technology planning for business competitiveness, August 2001:
http://industry.gov.au/library/content_library/ 13_technology_road_mapping.pdf
Industry Canada - Technology roadmapping - a strategy for success, including a guide for government employees:
http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/internet/intrm-crt.nsf/vwGeneratedInterE/Home
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Roadmapping challenges
50
45
40
Response (%)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Starting up Developing a Roll-out of Keeping the Other
the TRM robust TRM the TRM TRM process
process process process 'alive' on an
ongoing
basis
Source: CTM survey, 1999
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T-Plan aims
To support the start-up of company-specific TRM processes
To establish key linkages between technology resources and
business drivers
To identify important gaps in market, product and technology
intelligence
To develop a first-cut technology roadmap
To support technology strategy and planning initiatives in the firm
To support communication between technical and commercial
functions
http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/pubs/TPlan/index.htm
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T-Plan Applications
Sector / product Aims
Industrial coding (x3) - Product planning
Postal services (x10) - Integration of R&D into business; business planning
Security / access systems - Product planning
Labelling software - Product planning
Surface coatings - New product development process
Medical packaging (x2) - Business reconfiguration
Automotive sub-systems - Service development & planning
Power transmission - Business opportunities of new technology
Railway infrastructure (x3) - Capital investment planning and technology insertion
National infrastructure - Research programme planning
Building controls - New product / service opportunity; business reconfiguration
Road transport - Defining the national research agenda for the sector
Technical consulting (x6) - New product / service development, strategy
Automotive / Aerospace - Corporate co-operation and synergy
Academic (x2) - Strategic planning
Biochemicals - Research priorities / network development
Satellite navigation - Research priorities / network development
Food processing - Research priorities / network development
Pneumatic systems - Innovation strategy
Emerging technologies - Research priorities
Automotive - Innovation opportunities
Retail (x2) - Business and product strategy
Construction - Global production strategy
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Planning Roll-out
Customised process
General strategic
planning
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Setting up Following on
Managing the process
the process from the process
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Product features
Market
Service /
Production
Technology /
Resources
Analysis
Grids
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Example Market-Product grid (Softco)
Market Softco
Ranking:
Prioritisation: Major Pharmaceutical: 9 10 7 6 1 2 6 5
5 7 9 6 10 =1 = -1
(scale of 10) CRO: 9 10 10 2 8 4 7 7
Cell scores x Driver priority
D. Motivation of staff
Business
Pharmaceutical
2. Integrity of trial
C. Time to market
5. Leading edge
Drivers
4. Globalisation
7. Connectivity
8. Future proof
6. Ease of use
3. Cost of trial
A. Reusability
Product
Feature
B. No. 1
Softco
Major
CRO
Concepts
* * *
Prioritisation: Major Pharmaceutical: 5.5 4.7 8.7 5.0 10.0 9.6 5.9 6.8 0.7 3.2 Ranking:
- from Grid 1 CRO: 4.8 4.2 8.3 4.1 10.0 9.9 5.8 7.5 0.8 4.2 =1 = -1
(scale of 10) Sofco 4.5 1.1 4.9 3.8 3.0 9.5 2.5 10.0 2.7 5.2
Cell scores x Driver priority
8. Flexible implementation
Normalised: max score = 10
Product
9. Softco requirements
2. Validated software
5. Data management
Feature
Pharmaceutical
7. Global solution
Concepts
6. Labelling
4. Services
1. Security
Technology
Softco
CRO
Major
Areas
Other Raise
x million
Recruitment
New TAx = link to Technology
software &
Resources management
building Area x
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Group activity -
the bicycle of the future
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Biko: Introduction
Biko, a small traditional but well regarded bicycle manufacturer
has just been taken over by a large sports equipment and
clothing manufacturer, Sportco
Biko: Instructions
Feedback
Planning
(customisation checklist)
Context: scope, focus, aims and resources
Standard process:
Roadmap architecture - Follow the guide
Customised process:
Process - Creative and collaborative
design activity
Participants
Workshop scheduling
Integration: systems, processes & information
Preparatory work
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Domain
knowledge
dialogue
Implementing roadmapping
Individual planning & discussion
Other
Communication roadmaps
Conclusions
Benefits of roadmapping:
A focus for integrated strategic planning
Can be applied in a wide range of contexts
Supports communication and network development
Challenges of roadmapping:
Not a magic bullet - initially more questions than answers likely
Maintaining the process - the real benefit lies in its ongoing use
The process and roadmap typically need to be customised
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Review
Has the workshop met your expectations?
Will you give roadmapping a try?
Any questions?
Further support:
Contact us: Rob Phaal at rp108@eng.cam.ac.uk
TRM User Group: http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/trmug.htm
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Close
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Trends: leisure, health, disposable income Competition Legislation: VAT off bikes; cycle paths, etc.
Drivers
Super-bike
Product
Ergonomic Moulded
Comfort Customised frame 500-1000
design seat
Technical Direct drive Chip-on-bike Automatic
Networked Networked
Internet mass customisation
business factory
Technology