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A Review of Statistical Principles Useful in Finance
A Review of Statistical Principles Useful in Finance
A Review of Statistical Principles Useful in Finance
1
Statistical thinking will one day be as
necessary for effective citizenship as the
ability to read and write.
- H.G. Wells
2
Outline
Introduction
Theconcept of return
Some statistical facts of life
3
Introduction
Statistical principles are useful in:
The theory of finance
4
The Concept of Return
Measurable return
Expected return
Return on investment
5
Measurable Return
Definition
Holding period return
Arithmetic mean return
Geometric mean return
Comparison of arithmetic and geometric
mean returns
6
Definition
A generaldefinition of return is the benefit
associated with an investment
In most cases, return is measurable
E.g., a $100 investment at 8%, compounded
continuously is worth $108.33 after one year
The return is $8.33, or 8.33%
7
Holding Period Return
The calculation of a holding period return
is independent of the passage of time
E.g., you buy a bond for $950, receive $80 in
interest, and later sell the bond for $980
The return is ($80 + $30)/$950 = 11.58%
The 11.58% could have been earned over one year
or one week
8
Arithmetic Mean Return
The arithmetic mean return is the
arithmetic average of several holding period
returns measured over the same holding
period:
n
Ri
Arithmetic mean
i 1 n
10
Geometric Mean Return
The geometric mean return is the nth root
of the product of n values:
1/ n
n
Geometric mean (1 Ri ) 1
i 1
11
Arithmetic and
Geometric Mean Returns
Example
Solution:
n
Ri
Arithmetic mean
i 1 n
Solution:
1/ n
n
Geometric mean (1 Ri ) 1
i 1
1.0084 0.9955 1.0021 1.0000 1
1/ 4
0.001489 14
Comparison of Arithmetic &
Geometric Mean Returns
Thegeometric mean reduces the likelihood
of nonsense answers
Assume a $100 investment falls by 50% in
period 1 and rises by 50% in period 2
15
Comparison of Arithmetic &
Geometric Mean Returns
Thegeometric mean must be used to
determine the rate of return that equates a
present value with a series of future values
16
Expected Return
Expected return refers to the future
In finance, what happened in the past is not as
important as what happens in the future
17
Return on Investment (ROI)
Definition
Measuring total risk
18
Definition
Returnon investment (ROI) is a term that
must be clearly defined
Return on assets (ROA)
19
Measuring Total Risk
Standarddeviation and variance
Semi-variance
20
Standard Deviation and
Variance
Standard
deviation and variance are the
most common measures of total risk
21
Standard Deviation and
Variance (contd)
General equation for variance:
n 2
Variance 2 prob( xi ) xi x
i 1
n i 1
22
Standard Deviation and
Variance (contd)
Equation for standard deviation:
n 2
23
Semi-Variance
Semi-variance considers the dispersion only
on the adverse side
Ignores all observations greater than the mean
Calculates variance using only bad returns
that are less than average
Since risk means chance of loss positive
dispersion can distort the variance or standard
deviation statistic as a measure of risk
24
Some Statistical Facts of Life
Definitions
Propertiesof random variables
Linear regression
R squared and standard errors
25
Definitions
Constants
Variables
Populations
Samples
Sample statistics
26
Constants
A constant is a value that does not change
E.g., the number of sides of a cube
E.g., the sum of the interior angles of a triangle
27
Variables
A variable has no fixed value
It is useful only when it is considered in the
context of other possible values it might assume
29
Variables (contd)
Quantitative variables are measured by real
numbers
E.g., numerical measurement
30
Variables (contd)
Independent variables are measured
directly
E.g., the height of a box
34
Populations (contd)
A binomial distribution contains only two
random variables
E.g., the toss of a die
35
Populations (contd)
Aninfinite population is one where not all
observations can be counted
E.g., the microorganisms in a cubic mile of
ocean water
36
Populations (contd)
A bivariate population has two variables of
interest
E.g., weight and size
37
Samples
A sample is any subset of a population
E.g., a sample of past monthly stock returns of
a particular stock
38
Sample Statistics
Sample statistics are characteristics of
samples
A true population statistic is usually
unobservable and must be estimated with a
sample statistic
Expensive
Statistically unnecessary
39
Properties of
Random Variables
Example
Central tendency
Dispersion
Logarithms
Expectations
Correlation and covariance
40
Example
Assume the following monthly stock returns for Stocks A
and B:
Month Stock A Stock B
1 2% 3%
2 -1% 0%
3 4% 5%
4 1% 4%
41
Central Tendency
Central tendency is what a random variable
looks like, on average
The usual measure of central tendency is the
populations expected value (the mean)
The average value of all elements of the
population
1 n
E ( Ri ) Ri
n i 1
42
Example (contd)
The expected returns for Stocks A and B are:
1 n 1
E ( RA ) Ri (2% 1% 4% 1%) 1.50%
n i 1 4
1 n 1
E ( RB ) Ri (3% 0% 5% 4%) 3.00%
n i 1 4
43
Dispersion
Investors are interest in the best and the
worst in addition to the average
A common measure of dispersion is the
variance or standard deviation
E xi x
2 2
E xi x
2 2
44
Example (contd)
The variance ad standard deviation for Stock A are:
2 E xi x
2
1
(2% 1.5%) 2 (1% 1.5%) 2 (4% 1.5%) 2 (1% 1.5%) 2
4
1
(0.0013) 0.000325
4
2 E xi x
2
1
(3% 3.0%)2 (0% 3.0%) 2 (5% 3.0%) 2 (4% 3.0%) 2
4
1
(0.0014) 0.00035
4
50
Correlations and Covariance
Correlationis the degree of association
between two variables
COV ( A, B) AB E ( A A)( B B )
COV ( A, B)
AB
A B
52
Example (contd)
The covariance and correlation for Stocks A and B are:
1
AB (0.5% 0.0%) (2.5% 3.0%) (2.5% 2.0%) (0.5% 1.0%)
4
1
(0.001225)
4
0.000306
COV ( A, B) 0.000306
AB 0.909
A B (0.018)(0.0187)
53
Correlations and Covariance
Correlation ranges from 1.0 to +1.0.
Two random variables that are perfectly
positively correlated have a correlation
coefficient of +1.0
54
Linear Regression
Linearregression is a mathematical
technique used to predict the value of one
variable from a series of values of other
variables
E.g., predict the return of an individual stock
using a stock market index
Regression finds the equation of a line
through the points that gives the best
possible fit
55
Linear Regression (contd)
Example
0.004
0.002
0
-0.01 -0.005 -0.002 0 0.005 0.01
-0.004
-0.006
Return (Market)
57
R Squared and
Standard Errors
Application
R squared
Standard Errors
58
Application
R-squared and the standard error are used
to assess the accuracy of calculated
statistics
59
R Squared
R squared is a measure of how good a fit we get
with the regression line
If every data point lies exactly on the line, R squared is
100%
Standard error
n
61
Standard Errors (contd)
The standard error enables us to determine
the likelihood that the coefficient is
statistically different from zero
About 68% of the elements of the distribution
lie within one standard error of the mean
About 95% lie within 1.96 standard errors
About 99% lie within 3.00 standard errors
62