ECOLOGY: AN

EXPERIMENTAL AND
EMPIRICAL SCIENCE
Qs:
Who is it about?
What happened?
When did it take place?
Where did it take place?
Why did it happen?
How did it happen?
 Why?
To study the relationship of
organisms to their environment,
specifically on its factors that affect
distributions and abundance

How?
By conducting experiments in
the laboratory or fieldwork

Where and What?

The ecosystem and the
organism or species involved
 Example
Studying development of vegetation
in forest
Observation only is inadequate
Quadrate method is developed
Square plots: plants were listed,
counted and mapped
 Goals of ecology
To understand the patterns and processes
related to life on Earth

how animals and plants adapted to the

environment and between one another

their interaction as well as the abiotic

factors
 Scientific Method
1. Observations and previous experience
Collect data (preliminary)
Describes pattern or phenomenon

2. Question (Hypothesis)
Explanation of observed pattern or phenomenon
(Components of a stated hypothesis: 1) pattern & 2) explanation )

3. Predictions
if...then statement
yes no statement (null hypothesis) (courtroom analogy)

4. Experimental test of the prediction

(sometimes requires a manipulation)
Constitutes Experimental treatment
Collect data and analysis

5. Results (based on data analysis)

6. Conclusion (support or reject hypothesis?)
 Scientific Method
1. Observations and previous experience
Collect data (preliminary)
Describes pattern or phenomenon

2. Question (Hypothesis)
Explanation of observed pattern or phenomenon
(Components of a stated hypothesis: 1) pattern & 2) explanation )
Repeat the processes
3. Predictions Replication
if then statement
yes no statement (null hypothesis)

4. Experimental test of the prediction

(sometimes requires a manipulation)
Constitutes Experimental treatment
Collect data and analysis

5. Results (based on data analysis)

6. Conclusion (support or reject hypothesis?)
 Scientific Method
1. Observations and previous experience
Collect data (preliminary)
Describes pattern or phenomenon
Different Hypothesis
2. Question (Hypothesis) (alternative)
Explanation of observed pattern or phenomenon
(Components of a stated hypothesis: 1) pattern & 2) explanation )
Repeat the processes
3. Predictions
if then statement New Explanation
yes no statement (null hypothesis)

4. Experimental test of the prediction

(sometimes requires a manipulation)
Constitutes Experimental treatment
Collect data and analysis

5. Results (based on data analysis)

6. Conclusion (support or reject hypothesis?)
 Scientific Method
1. Observations and previous experience
Collect data (preliminary)
Describes pattern or phenomenon

2. Question (Hypothesis)
Explanation of observed pattern or phenomenon
(Components of a stated hypothesis: 1) pattern & 2) explanation )

3. Predictions
if then statement
yes no statement (null hypothesis)

4. Experimental test of the prediction

(sometimes requires a manipulation)
Constitutes Experimental treatment
Collect data and analysis

5. Results (based on data analysis)

6. Conclusion (support or reject hypothesis?)
FOUR STEPS TO HYPOTHESIS
TESTING
Step 1: State the hypotheses.
Step 2: Set the criteria for a decision.
Step 3: Compute the test statistic.
Step 4: Make a decision.
Exp :
 Fig 2.2 shows that the plants vary in their growth
response mainly due to genetic variation

so some degree of inherent variation exists

independent of treatments

So how do we evaluate this variation?

Are the estimates of plant growth under the 2x

levels of gas concentration different, or is it due
to natural variations among the plants sampled

Question natural variation or due to treatment?

 So we develop a measure of expectation under the null
hypothesis. Assume that the natural variation of the growth
of the plants approximates a normal (bell shaped)
distribution (Fig. 2.3). This distribution has 2 parameters:

1) mean () central tendency, = xi/n (xi, dependent

variables; n, is the sample size or number of replicates or
observations)

2) variance (2)

- 2 is the population variance measure of dispersion

about the mean

- 2 = (xi )2/N, where is the population mean)

3) the square root of the variances the standard deviation

(sd)
68%
95%
99%
 Models & Predictions
Done after hypothesis testing, to
formulate a relationship between
dependent and independent variable
Model-an abstract representation of the
real system
To test whether it will work based on
hypothesis formulated
May also be tested on other species
 Statistical
models

Analytical Types of Nonstatistical

models models models

Simulation
models
 Statistical models
Mathematical description of data
Predict the value of dependent variable
(plant growth) using mathematical
equation
y = ax + b, y is the dependent (plant
height) and x the independent (fertilizer)
a & b can be solved when we have paired
values of x & y
 Stem density and estimated snowshoe hare (Lepus
americana) density (Fig. 1.7) (Litviatis et al., 1985)
1. Linear relationship hare increase as
understorey stem density increase
2. The regression equation is a statistical model for
predicting the density of hares (y) given a value
of stem density (x).
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
0 2 4 6 8 10

Positive Correlation
Negative Correlation
4.5
4
3.5

2.5
3
Three types
1.5
2
of
1 correlation
0.5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10

No Correlation
Nonstatistical models
- They go beyond the description of
the relationship between dependent
and independent variables and
assign a mechanism to the
parameters

The non statistical model gives the

complex process of plant processes
(Fig. 1.9)
 Analytical models
Are part of the nonstatistical model
Can be solved mathematically and it
is deterministic
eg., dn/dt = rN(K N)/K
(Population Ecology Chapter)
 Simulation models
Cannot be solved analytically
E.g group of models known as individual based population
models.
1. UPM- A crop simulation model (CERES-Maize model) - to
identify the suitable planting time and maize was used as
an indicator crop.

2. USM- Landslide Prediction Simulation System (LPSS) factor

of safety (F) value, assist the authority on decision making
on how to measure disaster prevention

3. IIUM- Decentralized Signal Control on Four Intersections in

Malaysia Traffic Systems.
- Capture the problem of the network traffic congestions,
estimates vehicles flow and traffic can be calculated.
- image detectors could predict the future traffic flows at
various levels and conditions.
 Validation of model
To test of how much confidence can be placed in
the model
E.g does the model really agree with behavior of
the real life system it is trying to copy?
Can it produce correct predictions?
E.g, hydrodynamic models for construction in
coastal areas artificial islands, bridges, wave
breakers.
DEDUCTIVE VS INDUCTIVE
Deduction: reasoning from general
premises, which are known or
presumed to be known, to more
specific, certain conclusions.

Induction: reasoning from specific

cases to more general, but
uncertain, conclusions.
Sample Deductive and Inductive Arguments
Example of Example of
Deduction Induction
major premise: conclusion:
All tortoises are Bessie is a
vegetarians vegetarian
minor premise: minor premise:
Bessie is a Bessie is a
tortoise tortoise
conclusion: major premise:
Therefore, Therefore, all
Bessie is a tortoises are
vegetarian vegetarians