BUSINESS B8

Emerging Trends and

Technologies
Learning Outcomes

1. Identify the trends that will have the greatest

impact on future business

2. Identify the technologies that will have the

greatest impact on future business

3. Explain why understanding trends and new

technologies can help an organization
prepare for the future

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Introduction

Obtaining a broad view of emerging trends

and new technologies as they relate to
business can help an organization anticipate
and prepare for the future

Organizations that can most effectively grasp

the deep currents of technological evolution
can use their knowledge to protect
themselves against sudden and fatal
technological obsolescence

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Trends
Trend analysis the examination of a trend to identify its
nature, causes, speed of development, and potential impacts
Trend monitoring trends viewed as particularly important
in a specific community, industry, or sector are carefully
monitored, watched, and reported to key decision makers
Trend projection when numerical data is available a trend
can be plotted on graph paper to display changes through
time and into the future
Computer simulation complex systems can be modeled
by means of mathematical equations and different scenarios
can be run against the model to determine what if analysis
Historical analysis the study of historical events in order
to anticipate the outcome of current developments

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Top reasons organizations should study trends

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Trends Shaping Our Future

Worlds population will double in the next 40 years

Population in developed countries is living longer
Growth in information industries creates a
knowledge-dependent global society
The global economy is becoming more integrated
The economy and society are dominated by
technology
Pace of technological innovation is increasing
Time is becoming one of the most precious
commodities
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The worlds population will double
over the next 40 years

Potential business impact:

Global agriculture will be required to supply as much food
as has been produced during all of human history to meet
needs over the next 40 years
Developed nations will find that retirees will have to
remain on the job to remain competitive
Developed nations will begin to increase immigration limits7
Population in developed countries is
living longer
Potential business impact:
Global demand for elderly products and services will grow
quickly in the coming decades
The cost of health care is destined to skyrocket
Pharmaceutical companies will be pushed for advances in
geriatric medicine

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The growth in information industries is
creating a knowledge-dependent global society
83% of American management personnel will be knowledge
workers by 2005
A typical large organization in 2010 will have fewer than half the
management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about 1/3 the
number of managers
Potential business impact:
Top managers must be computer-literate to retain their jobs and
achieve success
Knowledge workers are generally higher paid and their
proliferation is increasing overall prosperity
Entry-level and unskilled positions are requiring a growing level
of education
Information now flows from front-office workers to higher
management for analysis
Downsizing, restructuring, reorganization, outsourcing, and
layoffs will continue
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The global economy is becoming more
integrated
International outsourcing is on the rise
The European Union has relaxed its borders and capital
controls
Internet users numbered about 500 million worldwide in
2003, Internet users are growing by 6% monthly

Potential business impact:

Demand for personnel in distant countries will increase the
need for foreign language training and employee
incentives suited to other cultures
E-business and the Internet will reduce the cost of doing
business
The Internet will allow small companies to compete with
worldwide giants with relatively little investment
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The economy and society are
dominated by technology
Computers are becoming a part of our environment
By 2007, artificial intelligence and expert systems will help
most companies and government agencies assimilate
data and solve problems beyond the range of todays
computers
Personal robots will appear in the home by 2010

Potential business impact:

New technologies provide dozens of new opportunities to
create businesses and jobs
Automation will continue to decrease the cost of products
and services, making it possible to reduce prices while
improving profits
Demand for scientists, engineers, and technicians will
continue to grow
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Pace of technological innovation is
increasing
Medical knowledge is doubling every eight years
50% of what students learn in their freshman year of
college is obsolete, revised, or taken for granted by
their senior year
All of todays technical knowledge will represent only
1 percent of the knowledge that will be available in
2050

Potential business impact:

Shortened time-to-market for products and services
Tighter competition based on new technologies

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Time is becoming one of the worlds
most precious commodities
U.S. workers spend 10% more time on the job than they
did a decade ago
European executives and nonunionized workers face the
same trend
This high-pressured environment is increasing the need
for any product or service that saves time or simplifies life

Potential business impact:

Companies must take an active role in helping their
employees balance their work and lives
Stress-related problems affecting employee morale and
wellness will continue to grow
Use of the Internet will continue to grow as the time to
perform activities, such as shopping at a mall, evaporates
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The following technologies have the
potential to change our future
Digital ink
Digital paper
Radio frequency identification (RFID)
Teleliving
Alternative energy sources
Autonomic computing

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Digital Ink (or Electronic Ink)
refers to technology that digitally represents handwriting in its
natural form
Digital ink can be used in many applications:
Point-of-sale signs
Next generation displays in mobile devices and PDAs
Thin, portable electronic books and newspapers
RadioPaper dynamic high-resolution electronic display that
combines a paperlike reading experience with the ability to
access information anytime, anywhere

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Digital Paper (or Electronic Paper)

any paper that is optimized for any type of digital

printing
The major difference between paper produced from a
tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that
information on a digital paper sheet can be altered
thousands of times and not degrade over time

Potential business impact:

Paperlike displays will replace newspapers,
magazines, and books
Reusable paper is an environmentally sound idea

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Digital Paper
Digital ink and digital paper
past, present, and future
Radio frequency identification (RFID)
RFID uses active or passive tags in the form of chips or smart
labels that can store unique identifiers and relay this information
to electronic readers
RFID systems are automated, reducing the need for manual
scanning, such as required with a bar code

Potential business impact:

Reduces the labor required to monitor goods movement and
inventory flow through a supply chain
Allows manufacturers and retailers to complement existing
systems while gathering more information
Provides complete supply chain visibility without the prohibitive
labor costs and error rates associated with a manual system
RFID helps enforce security by conducting automatic inventory
counts
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Comparison of bar code labeling to RFID
Closing Case One:
Mail with PostalOne
United States Postal Services (USPS) productivity has grown
by only 11 percent over the past three decades
USPS is pursuing several e-business projects to help increase
growth including:
NetPost Mailing Online
Post Electronic Courier Service
NetPost.Certified
EBillPay

1. Do you think the USPSs steps are far-reaching enough to

ensure its relevance in e-business?
2. What other strategic alliances, akin to its partnership with
CheckFree, can the Postal Service develop to stay
competitive?
3. Why would the USPS compete in a market that private
companies already serve well?
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Teleliving
Teleliving refers to using information devices and the Internet
to conduct all aspects of life seamlessly
Includes shopping, working, learning, playing, healing, and even
praying
Each year, four billion chips are embedded in everything from
coffee makers to Cadillacs

Potential business impact

In the future, people will move through a constant stream of
information summoned at the touch of a finger
Virtual assistant (VA) a small program stored on a PC or
portable device that monitors e-mails, faxes, messages, and
phone calls. VAs will mimic real assistants helping individuals
solve problems
Robotic salespeople will take on human appearances and
perform all tasks associated with a sales job
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Alternative Energy Sources
Wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and other
alternative energy sources will account for 30 percent of
all energy use
By 2010 nuclear plants will supply 16% of Russia and
eastern Europes energy

Potential business impact:

China, India, South America, and Russia are modernizing
their economies, which increases their needs for energy
Cost of alternative energy sources is decreasing
Deregulation of the energy industry is expected to
increase innovation and foster a wide variety of new
energy sources
Oil will remain the worlds most important energy source
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Autonomic Computing
Autonomic computing a self-managing computing
model named after, and patterned on, the human bodys
autonomic nervous system

Potential business impact:

Autonomic computing will be used in complex IT
infrastructures for security, storage, network management,
and redundancy/failover
Computers will monitor components and fine-tune
workflows
Autonomic computers will be able to self-heal
Autonomic computers will be able to self-protect
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Autonomic Computing