Chng 8

TNG CU & CHNH SACH

TAI KHOA
I. CAC THANH PHAN CUA TONG
CAU
Tong cau (AD) trong nen kinh te m:
AD = C + I + G + X - M
1. Tieu dung: C = C0 + CmYd
2. au t: I = I0 + ImY
3. Chi tieu cua CP: G = G0
4. Xuat khau: X = X0
5. Nhap khau: M = M0 + MmY

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 2

1. Tieu dung (C):
Tieu dung cua HG phu thuoc:
Thu nhap kha dung (Yd)
Cua cai (tai san), lai suat
Thoi quen hay tap quan tieu dung
Thu nhap thng xuyen va gia thuyet
vong i

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 3

 Trong ieu kien cac yeu to khac
khong oi, C co quan he ong
bien vi Yd:
+ Yd tang C tang
+ Yd giam C giam

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 4

 Ham so tieu dung
C = Co + Cm Yd (Cm 0)
vi: Co: Tieu dung t nh
Cm: Tieu dung bien

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 5

 Thu nhap kha dung c s dung
cho hai muc ch tieu dung va tiet
kiem:
Yd = C + S

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 6

Ham tiet kiem:
S = Yd C
= Yd - Co - Cm Yd
= - Co + (1 Cm)Yd
at: So = - Co
Sm = 1 Cm
Ham tiet kiem c viet lai:
S = S o + Sm Y d
So: Tiet kiem t nh
Sm: Tiet kiem bien

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 7

 Moi quan he :
C + S = Yd
Cm + Sm = 1
Co + So = 0

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 8

2. au t (I)

au t va anh hng en cau

(trong ngan han), va anh hng
en cung (trong dai han).

au t chu anh hng cua nhieu

nhan to: thue, lai suat tien te, san
lng quoc gia,...

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 9

 Trong ieu kien r khong oi, I la
mot ham ong bien vi Y
Ham au t: I = Io + Im Y (Im
0)
Vi: Io: au t t nh
Im: au t bien

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 10

I

I(Y)
I2
I1

I0

0 Y
Y1 Y2
ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 11
3. Chi tieu cua chnh phu
Ngan sach chnh phu:
Thu ngan sach
Nguon thu quan trong cua ngan sach cua
chnh phu la thu t thue.
Ham so thue rong (T):
T = TX - Tr
Vi: TX = Td + Ti
Tr: Chi chuyen nhng
Neu: Tr = Tr0
TX = Txo + TmY
Txo: Thue t nh (Thue khoan)
Tm: Thue bien

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 12

Nh vay :
T = TX - Tr = (Txo + Tm.Y) - Tro
= (Txo - Tro) + Tm.Y
at: To = Txo - Tro
T = To + Tm .Y

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 13

 Chi ngan sach
Chi ngan sach cua chnh phu gom 2
phan:
+ Chi mua hang hoa va dch vu (G)
- Trong ngan han: G = Go = hang so
- Trong dai han: G = f (Y)
Gii han : G = Go
+ Chi chuyen nhng (Tr)
Gii han : Tr = Tro

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 14

 Ngan sach chnh phu (B)
B = Thu ngan sach Chi ngan
sach
= TX - (G + Tr)
= (TX - Tr) - G
= T -G

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 15

 Neu B > 0: Thang d ngan sach
Neu B < 0: Tham hut ngan sach
Neu B = 0: Can bang ngan sach

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 16

4. Xuat, nhap khau va can can
thng mai
4.1. Xuat khau
Nhng nhan to anh hng:
+ Thu nhap cua quoc gia nhap khau
+ Ty gia hoi oai thc (er)
+
Ham so xuat khau (X):
X = X0 = const

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 17

4.2. Nhap khau
Nhng nhan to anh hng:
+ Thu nhap quoc gia (Y)
+ Ty gia hoi oai thc (er),
Ham so nhap khau (M):
M = f(Y)
Neu M la ham tuyen tnh:
M = M0 + MmY
Vi: M0 : nhap khau t nh
Mm: nhap khau bien
Mm > 0

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 18

4.3. Can can thng mai (NX)
NX = X M
Neu NX > 0: Thang d mau dch
(Xuat sieu)
Neu NX < 0: Tham hut mau dch
(Nhap sieu)
Neu NX = 0: Can can thng mai can
bang

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 19

II. SAN LNG CAN BANG TRONG
NEN KINH TE M

Tong cung: AS = Y
Tong cau: AD = C + I + G + X - M
San lng can bang c xac nh
khi:
AS = AD
<=> Y=C+I+G+X-M

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 20

 Vi C, I, G, T, X, M la cac ham so
c gia nh nh tren:
C = C0 + CmYd
C = C0 + Cm (Y - T)
C = (Co - Cm T0) + Cm(1 - Tm)Y
I = I0 + ImY
G = G0
X = X0
M = M0 + MmY

C0 Cm T0 I 0 G0 X 0 M 0

1 Cm (1 Tm ) I m M m
ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 21
III. MO HNH SO NHAN
1.So nhan tong quat (k):

k phan anh mc thay oi cua san

lng khi tong cau thay oi 1 n v.

k = Y/ AD

=> Y = k . AD

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 22

 Cong thc tnh:
1
k = -----------------------------
1 - Cm (1 - Tm) Im + Mm

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 23

 V d:
Trong mt nn kinh t m c cc hm s sau:
C = 320 + 0,75Yd
I = 120 + 0,2Y
T = 40 + 0,2Y
G = 580
X = 340
M = 200 + 0,05Y
Yp = 4480
Un = 5%
a. Xc nh sn lng cn bng. Cho bit tnh trng
ngn sch v cn cn thng mi.
b. Tnh t l tht nghip theo nh lut Okun.
c. Gi s li sut tng lm cho u t ca cc DN
thay i 20. Xc nh sn lng cn bng mi.
ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 24
2. So nhan ca biet:
So nhan cua tieu dung: kC = Y/ C = k
So nhan cua au t: kI = Y/ I = k
So nhan cua chi tieu CP: kG = Y/ G = k
So nhan cua thue: kTx = Y/ Tx =
-k.Cm
So nhan cua Tr: kTr = Y/ Tr = k.Cm
So nhan cua xuat khau: kX = Y/ X = k
So nhan cua nhap khau: kM = Y/ M = -
k
So nhan can bang ngan sach:
kB= kG + kT = k(1-Cm)
ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 25
IV. CHNH SACH TAI KHOA
1. Muc tieu va cong cu ca CSTK
1.1. Muc tieu
Giam s dao ong cua chu ky kinh doanh.
Duy tr nen kinh te mc san lng
tiem nang: Y = YP
U = Un

1.2. Cong cu
Thue (T)
Chi ngan sach (G)

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 26

2. Nguyen tac hoach nh chnh sach
tai khoa
2.1. Khi nen kinh te suy thoai (Y < YP)
Ap dung chnh sach tai khoa m
rong:
* giam thue va/hoac tang Tr
Khi: TX, hoac Tr
Yd C AD Y
* hoac/va tang chi tieu CP
Khi: G Yd C AD Y
ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 27
2.2. Khi nen kinh te lam phat (Y > YP)
Ap dung chnh sach tai khoa thu
hep
* tang thue va/hoac giam Tr
Khi: TX, hoac Tr
Yd C AD Y
* hoac/va giam chi tieu CP
Khi: G Yd C AD Y

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 28

3. nh lng cho chnh sach tai
khoa

Xc nh s thay oi () san lng mot

lng:
Y = Yp Y

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 29

 S dung cong cu Thue
T = Y/ -k.Cm

S dung cong cu Chi ngan sach

G = Y/ k

S dung hon hp Thue va Chi ngan

sach
- k.Cm.T + k.G = Y
ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 30
Bi tp:
Trong mt nn kinh t m c cc hm s sau:
C = 20 + 0,9Yd
I = 150 + 0,05Y
T = 100 + 0,1Y
G = 520
X = 440
M = 20 + 0,11Y
Yp = 4280
Un = 5,5%
a. Xc nh sn lng cn bng.
b. Tnh mc tht nghip thc t theo nh lut Okun
c. Cho bit tnh trng cn bng ca ngn sch v cn cn ngoi thng
d. Chnh ph mun ci thin cn cn ngoi thng. Nh mt s
bin php tch cc, xut khu tng thm c 40. Xc nh mc
sn lng cn bng mi.
ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 31
e. T kt qu cu d, chnh ph tng chi tiu mua hng ho
thm 10 v tng chi tr cp tht nghip thm 8. Xc nh
mc sn lng cn bng mi.

f. Mun cho sn lng cn bng cu e tin v mc sn

lng tim nng th chnh ph phi p dng chnh sch ti
kho nh th no?

ThS Pham Ngoc Khanh 32