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How Earthquakes Work Can We Predict Them?: Effects Visible Today From M 7.3 1959 Hebgen Lake, Montana Earthquake
How Earthquakes Work Can We Predict Them?: Effects Visible Today From M 7.3 1959 Hebgen Lake, Montana Earthquake
How earthquakes
work
Can we predict them?
DD
6.2
ELASTIC REBOUND
Over many years, rocks on opposite sides of the fault move,
but friction on fault "locks" it and prevents slip
DD 6.3
Receivers on ground
record signals and find
their position
from the time the
signals arrive
Conceptually like
locating earthquakes
DD 9.8
1970’s optimism
Discounting
misfit of
1934 quake
predicted
higher
confidence
Science, 10/8//04
No precursors in seismicity
(foreshocks), strainmeters,
magnetometers, GPS, creepmeter
Maybe lots of tiny earthquakes happen frequently, but only a few grow
by random process to large earthquakes
0.5
2x**2-1
Series1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Series2
-0.5
-1
Starting values
-1.5
Series 1: 0.750
time Series 2: 0.749
Deterministic contributor - stress changes
This is consistent with the observation that in 75 years before the 1906 earthquake,
the area had 14 earthquakes with Mw > 6, whereas only three occurred since
Stress
change
SAF
USGS
Status today
Meaningful prediction involves specifying the location, time,
& size of an earthquake before it occurs
Short-term prediction:
-Find precursors - changes in earth before earthquakes
consistently resolvable from normal variability