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Term Loan Appraisal: A New Manufacturing Unit Wants A Term Loan - Will The Bank Appraise It ?
Term Loan Appraisal: A New Manufacturing Unit Wants A Term Loan - Will The Bank Appraise It ?
Term Loan Appraisal: A New Manufacturing Unit Wants A Term Loan - Will The Bank Appraise It ?
Cash Flows
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Credit Worthiness
Repayment
Personality of capacity of the
the borrower borrower
Results of
Willingness to Management economic
repay talents activities
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3 stages of any new business
Project
Gestation Period Earning Profits
Implementation
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3 stages of any new business
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3 stages of any new business
Gestation Period
The unit comes into
operation and starts
generating cash but
takes time to reach the
Interest is accrued
break-even point.
during this period to
include it into the
cost of product.
No money movement takes place between the
borrower and the bank.
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3 stages of any new business
This is the stage when enough
cash flows are expected to be
generated from the business to
meet the instalments (including
interest and principle).
Technical Evaluation
Financial Evaluation
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Economic Evaluation
The demand of the product is evaluated.
There should be a demand-supply
gap, price advantage, timing and other
such benefits.
The prime attention is that the project
should survive the three stages of the
business (implementation, gestation
and operations).
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Economic Evaluation
Thus the bank prefers loans where there is a large gap between the
supply and current demand.
E.g.:
Where a manufacturer of tables needs a loan:
1) Demand = 10000 Units
The market already
Supply = 12000 Units has enough supply
New Project = 2000 Units (prices might also fall).
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Economic Evaluation
Case Study #1:
A company specialising in plastic engineered goods
wants to setup a plant for manufacturing large
computer keyboards (back in 90’s) seeing the large
market demand.
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Economic Evaluation
Case Study #1:
A company specialising in plastic engineered goods
wants to setup a plant for manufacturing large
computer keyboards (back in 90’s) seeing the large
market demand.
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Economic Evaluation
Case Study #2:
A person wants to set up a mini cement plant in the
local area. However UltraTech, Ambuja etc rule the
current market.
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Economic Evaluation
Case Study #2:
A person wants to set up a mini cement plant in the
local area. However UltraTech, Ambuja etc rule the
current market.
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Economic Evaluation
Case Study #3:
A Small Power Project in Himachal or in New Delhi ?
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Management Evaluation
Case Study #1:
A “Lalaji” from Bihar (with enough land there), seeing
the rise in IT Industry, too wants to start a new IT
Company.
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Management Evaluation
Case Study #1:
A “Lalaji” from Bihar (with enough land there), seeing
the rise in IT Industry, too wants to start a new IT
Company.
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Management Evaluation
Case Study #1:
A “Lalaji” from Bihar (with enough land there), seeing
the rise in IT Industry, too wants to start a new IT
Company.
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Technical Evaluation
Technical Evaluation is closely linked to the
Economic and Managerial Evaluation. The
technical competencies of the Management and
technicalities are evaluated in economic
specifications.
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Financial Evaluation
This is the ultimate part of the evaluation process
where all the things are summed up in the terms of
money.
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Cash Flow Structure
Cash from Operations:
Profit generated by the production & sales of goods and services
+/- Adjustments for the expansion and tightening of working assets
+/- Adjustments for non-cash income and expense items
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Analysis of Cash Flows
The most commonly used indicators for
doing this are:
• Debt Service Coverage Ratio
(DSCR); and
• net cash flow after loan repayment
or “free net cash flow.”
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Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR);
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Case Study
The new manufacturing which wants a four year term loan has
following projected cash flows:
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Case Study
The new manufacturing which wants a four year term loan has
following projected cash flows:
Loan Application Net Cash Flow before Loan repayment Free Net Cash Flow
The free Net Cash Flow is negative in the first year and too low
in the second year. Thus, it is recommended to reschedule the
loan and provide necessary moratorium period.
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Financial Evaluation
The interest rates are fixed based on the degree of
risk. This risk is computed based on the concepts
of probability and margin of safety.
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RISK
Chinese Symbol- “The first symbol is the symbol for ‘danger’, while
the second is the symbol for ‘opportunity’, making risk a mix of
danger and opportunity.”
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RISK
The second is not “Uncertainty” but “Risk”
2)Risk: These are those decisions relating
to events which are risky and might not
happen as expected.
These are the decisions where the profits are made. The
banks give the loans on evaluation of risk and thus
charge a higher interest.
This is based on the same principle as the principle of
insurance business.
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RISK
In insurance business the loss of few people is
distributed among a large group (via
premiums).
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Common Practices
One of the common practices in the market is that
once a person gets a loan, he floats it in the market
at even higher rates.
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A Good Bank ?