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Ch7 Hypothesis Testing: - It Is Like Placing A Bet On Unknowns
Ch7 Hypothesis Testing: - It Is Like Placing A Bet On Unknowns
Ch7 Hypothesis Testing: - It Is Like Placing A Bet On Unknowns
0.4
Z ~ N(0, 1)
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Pr (Rejection region)
= level of significance = α
0.3
0.2
0.1
Rejection Acceptance Rejection
region region region
0.0
0.4
Z ~ N(0, 1)
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0.3
0.2
0.0
Type I and Type II errors in hypothesis testing
• What kinds of error could happen in a court room?
1. Sending an innocent person to jail
2. Not sending bad guys to jail
• Hypothesis testing is associated with a given error (similar to interval estimation associated with a
confidence interval)
• Type I error: reject H0 given H0 is true
• Type II error: accept H0 given H0 is false
Ex7.1
Jerry claims the population mean is 168 cm for HKUST
students. Should this hypothesis be accepted given α
= 5% with sample mean = 168.2 and sample SD = 5
from 10 samples
i) H0: μ = 168
t-dist with DOF = 9
ii) H1: μ ≠168 (two-tail)
0.4
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iii) Statistics: 0.3
0.2
= 0.12
X 0.1
t
S / nrejection region
iv) Determine 0.0
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iii)Statistics:
0.3
0.2
( n 1 ) S 2
2 12 0.1
2
0.4
Pr (Rejection region)
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= level of significance = α
0.3
0.2
• The larger the α, the larger the rejection zone, the more easily H 0 got rejected
• Given H0 not rejected with
0.1
both 1%-α and 10%-α tests, the latter one is more critical for H0 not
being rejected; so it should be the reason why α is referred to as “level of significance.”
0.0
• With level of significance = 5%, it means there
is 5% chance that H0 will be rejected
5%
=> Small size => t 0.0
2.01
Ex7.3
The steel company claims that its steel can sustain more than 2650 pounds. Randomly select 6 samples and their
strengths are: 2680, 2780, 2450, 2620, 2480, 2500
Should we trust the statement of the company given level of sig. = 5%?
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Since t
S/ n 0.3
t 1.22
130.2 / 6
0.1
=> Accept H0
0.0
2.01
=> Reject the company’s statement
• In Ex7.3, why not set
H0: μ > 2650
H1: μ < 2650
In this case, when H0 is accepted, the company’s
statement is trustworthy?
0.4
t-dist with DOF = 5
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0.0
-2.01
How to set a solid H0 and H1
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H1: μ ≠ 12
H1: μ > 12 0.3
X 5%
Z 2.6
S/ n 0.0
1.64
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H1: μd ≠ 0 0.3
H1: μd > 0
0.2
H1: μd < 0
0.1
X d -2.57 2.57
t 0.4
Sd / n
=> accept H0 => no difference in
Ex7.6
Selecting 21 samples for each production line:
0.4
f-dist with DOF1 = 20 and DOF2 = 20
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0.1
1%
0.0
2.94
P-value
• When level of significance is not given, we calculate
p-value for decision making
Z(0, 1)
=> when p-value is small
0.4
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0.3
(< 0.05), reject H0
0.2
0.1
0.4% = p-value = Pr(A > calculation)
0.0
2.6
• P-value
right-tail test left-tail test
0.4
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0.4
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0.3
P-value 0.3
P-value
= Pr (A > a*)
0.2
0.2 = Pr (A < a*)
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0