USAGE AND DEMAND

OF WATER SUPPLY

CHAPTER 2
 CONTENT
• At the end of this chapter, student could be
able to
• 2.1 Understand on water demand
• 2.2 Know the population growth estimation
• 2.3 Understand the water demand forecasting
 ESTIMATE FUTURE POPULATION
USING VARIOUS METHODS
a. Arithmetic Increase Method
b. Geometric Increase Method
c. Incremental Increase Method
d. Decreasing Rate of Growth Method
e. Simple Graphical Method
f. Comparative Graphical Method
g. Ratio Method
 ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD
• This method is based on the assumption that
the population is increasing at a constant rate.
The rate of change of population with time is
constant.
• The population after ‘n’ decades can be
determined by the formula

Pn = P + n.C
 ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD
Pn = P + n.c
where
P = population at present
n = No. of decades
c = Constant determined by the average of increase
of ‘n’ decades.
c = dP/dt
dP = Total of population
dt = Total of decade
• EXAMPLE :The following data have been
noted from the census department. Find the
probable population in the year 1980, 1990
and 2000

Year Population
1940 8000
1950 12,000
1960 17,000
1970 22,500
• Solution
Year Population Increase in
Population
1940 8000 -
1950 12,000 4000
1960 17,000 5000
1970 22,500 5500
Total 14,500
dP/dt Average Inverse (C) 4,833
Year Population
1980 22,500 + (1 x 4833) = 27,333
1990 22,500 + (2 x 4833) = 32,166
2000 22,500 + (3 x 4833) = 36,999
 GEOMETRIC INCREASE METHOD
• This method is based on the assumption that
the percentage increase in population from
decade to decade remains constant.
• In this method the average percentage of
growth of last few decades is determined, the
population forecasting is done on the basis
that percentage increase per decade will be
the same.
 GEOMETRIC INCREASE METHOD
• The population at the end of ‘n’ decades is
calculated by

where
P = population at present
C = average percentage of growth of ‘n’
decades
 SOLUTION

Year Population Increase in Percentage increase in

Population population

1940 8000 -
1950 12000 4000 (4000/8000) x 100 = 50%
1960 17000 5000 (5000/12000) x 100 = 41.7%
1970 22500 5500 (5500/17000) x 100 = 32.4%

total 14500 124.1

Average per 4833 41.37

decade
The population at the end of various decades
shall be as follows:

YEAR EXPECTED POPULATION

1980 22500 + (41.37 / 100) x 22500 = 31808

1990 31800 + (41.37 / 100) x 31800 = 49935

2000 49935 + (41.37 / 100) x 49395 = 68524

INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD
• This method is improvement over the above
two methods. The average increase in the
population is determined by the arithmetical
method and to this is added the average of
the net incremental increase once for each
future decade.
 The population after ‘n’ decade

• where
• P = population at present
• Ia = Average Arithmetical increase
• Ic = Average incremental increase
• n = decade
 SOLUTION
Year Population Increase in Incremental
Population increase i.e
Increment on the
increase
1940 8000 - -
1950 12000 4000 -
1960 17000 5000 1000
1970 22500 5500 500
Total 14500 1500
Average 4833 750
Use formula

Year Expected Population

1980 22500 + 1 x (4833 + 750) = 28083
1990 28083 + 1 x (4833 + 750) = 33666
2000 39249 + 1 x (4833 + 750) = 39249

Year Expected Population

1980 22500 + 1 x (4833 + 750) = 28083
1990 22500 + 2 x (4833 + 750) = 33666
2000 22500 + 3 x (4833 + 750) = 39249
 DECREASING RATE OF GROWTH
METHOD
• In this method, the average decrease in the
percentage increase is worked out, and is then
subtracted from the latest percentage
increase to get the percentage increase of
next decade
Year Population Increase Percentage Decrease
in increase in in the
Population population percentage
increase
1940 8000 - - -
1950 12000 4000 (4000/8000) x -
100 = 50
1960 17000 5000 (5000/8000) x +8.3
100 =41.7
1970 22500 5500 (5500/8000) x +9.3
100 = 32.4

Total 14500 14500 17.6

Average 4833 4833 8.8
 • Now the population at the end of various
decades shall be as follows:

Year Net percentage Expected Population

increase in
population
1980 32.4 – 8.8 = 23.6 22500 + 23.6/100 x 22500 = 27810

1990 23.6 – 8.8 = 14.8 27810 + 14.8/100 x 27810 = 31926

2000 14.8 – 8.8 = 6.0 31926 + 6/100 x 31926 = 33842

 SIMPLE GRAPHICAL METHOD
• In this method, a graph is plotted from the
available data, between time and population.
The curve is then smoothly extended up to
the desired year. This method gives very
approximate results and should be used along
with other forecasting methods
 COMPARATIVE GRAPHICAL METHOD
• In this method, the cities having conditions
and characteristics similar to the city whose
future population is to be estimated are
selected. It is then assumed that the city
under consideration will develop, as the
selected similar cities have developed in the
past.
 RATIO METHOD
• In this method, the local population and the
country's population for the last four to five decades
is obtained from the census records.
• The ratios of the local population to national
population are then worked out for these decades.
• A graph is then plotted between time and these
ratios
• This ratio is then multiplied by the expected national
population at the end of the design period, so as to
obtain the required city's future population.