Effects-based Operations:

An Overview

Dr. Maris “Buster” McCrabb

(757) 508-8735
Buster@dmmventures.com

1
 Overview

• Introduction
• Definitions
• Models
• ATD Technologies
• EBO in Operation ALLIED FORCE

2
 Effects-Based Operations

Plan Disrupt
Effect
Delivery of POL

Destroy Bridge 4 Destroy Bridge 6 Tasks

Bridge 4 Destroyed …desired behavioral outcomes.

Global Air Air
Indicator Situation Objectives Tasks T
s A
Awareness S Air & Space
K Control
L Force
E Support
V
Bridge 6 Destroyed E
L

CRISIS A
N
A
L
Y Force
S
I Application
S

Physical effects that lead to… Now

Force
Enhancement
3
 Effects-Based Operations

"Effects based operations is a methodology for planning,

executing and assessing operations to attain the effects required
to achieve desired national security objectives.“ AFDD 1
EBO
EBO… …
••is
isan
anapproach,
approach,aaway
wayof
ofthinking
thinking

••supports
supportsall
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missionsfrom
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••utilizes
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••offers
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Economy-of-Force

••offers
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toEffects-based
Effects-basedDynamic
DynamicISR
ISRManagement
Management
The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actions 4
produce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time
Comparison of Effects-Based, Objectives-Based
and Targets-Based Operations

Target-Based (TBO)
• ID enemy entities, destroy them
• Focus: physical effects at target level
• Looks at 1st and 2nd order effects only
• No dynamic assessment
• No explicit timing considerations
Effects-Based
Objectives-Based (OBO) (Strategies-to-Task)
• Strategies at one level become objectives for next
• Focus: objectives at every level
Objectives-Based • Considers linkages between objectives and
(Strategies-To Task)
strategies to achieve those objectives
• No dynamic assessment
• No explicit timing considerations

Target-Based Effects-Based (EBO)

• Address causality between actions and effects
• Focus: desired effects (physical and behavioral)
• Encompass both target and objective-based methods
• Models the enemy-as-a-system w/adversary reaction
• Considers Direct, Indirect, Complex (synergistic),
Cumulative & Cascading effects
• Timing explicitly considered
5
• “Overcoming” mechanism stated & assessed
 Definitions

• No doctrinal template in approved Joint doctrine

– USAF Doctrine has rudimentary definitions
• Physical => Behavioral
– destroy (damage), disrupt (Kosovo), degrade, dislocate, decapitate, divert,
delay (isolate), deny (halt), deceive, defend, deter (D 11)
– coerce: punish, threaten (George, Schelling)
• Historically and theoretically behavioral most important but hardest
– therefore, traditionally military operations focus on physical effects
• Major problems with behavioral effects:
– causality between action & effect
– observability of effect
– uncertainty of intervening variables

6
 AFDD 2-1 Definitions

• Direct Effect
• Indirect Effect
• “Effects” described
• Limitations:
– Precise definitions of “effects”
– Effects versus Objectives
– Conflating Mechanism
– Connections between Direct & Indirect Effects
– Complex or Cascading Effects
7
 AFDD 2-1 Definitions

• Direct Effect: “Result of actions with no intervening

effect or mechanism between act and outcome.
Direct effects are usually immediate and easily
recognizable.” (AKA 1st order effect)
• Indirect Effect: “Result created through an
intermediate effect or mechanism to produce the
final outcome,which may be physical or
psychological in nature. Indirect effects tend to be
delayed,and may be difficult to recognize.” (AKA
2nd, 3rd,…, n-order effects)

8
 Effect

• A result from some action

– Assumes a causal connection
– “IF x THEN y” is a statement of (direct) effect
• Point of View dependent

Effect Effect

Cause

Action Action
AFDD 2-1 EBO CONOPS 9
 Mechanism

• Actions Cause Results (Effects)

• Mechanism explains cause
– Rationale explains purpose (Commander’s Intent)
• IF (x; action) THEN (y; result) BECAUSE (a, b, … ; mechanism)
– Uncertainty in action, result and cause suggest a probability-
based approach (Bayes)
• Clausewitz: if you defeat an enemy’s fielded force, then a rational
leader will submit because his country is undefended.
• Douhet: if you terrorize the population, then a rational leader will
submit because the populace will rise up, rebel, and force
submission.

10
 Mechanism continued

• Slessor: if you interdict infrastructure or supply, then

fielded forces will be less combat capable, making
them easier to defeat which leads to…an undefended
country.
• Schelling: if you threaten things leadership value, then
they will submit rather than lose those things.
• Warden: if you isolate leadership, then they are
prevented from doing something which would thwart
our will. They submit because the imposed paralysis
prevents them from doing otherwise.

11
 Mechanism finished

• In reality these are few, if any, single mechanisms at

work.
– Direct and indirect effects combine to form complex
and cumulative effects
– Effects cascade for good or ill
• Predicting, then assessing, how physical actions
spawn behavioral effects (I.e., results from actions) is
the major challenge.

12
 Actions & Tasks

• Tasks are work (actions) to be done

– Operationally, tasks are normally assigned to
tactical units (squadrons, brigades, CVBGs, etc.)
• EBO theory is agnostic to the originator of action

Effect (Result)

Mechanism (Cause)

Action (Tasks) 13
 Direct & Indirect Effects

• Direct Effects result from (caused by) direct actions.

• Indirect Effects result from (caused by) indirect
actions.
• Indirect actions may be the result of a (previous) direct
effect.

Direct Effect (Result) Direct Effect (Result) & Indirect Action

Mechanism (Cause) Mechanism (Cause)

Direct Action (Tasks) Indirect Effect (Result) 14

 Complex & Cumulative Effects

• Complex Effects are a combination of effects, either

direct or indirect, at an instant in time & space.
– Mechanism explains how these effect combine
• Cumulative effects are complex effects as viewed over
some time interval.
– Effects do have persistence, though that generally
varies

Complex/Cumulative Effect (Result)

Mechanism (Cause)

Direct Effect (Result) Indirect Effect (Result) Indirect Effect (Result)

15
 Cascading Effects

• Cascading effects are direct, indirect, complex or

cumulative effects that ripple through a system
– Captures the notions of an acceleration or a
multiplier effect (from economics)
– Requires a systems perspective: relationships,
dependencies, or connections between elements
• Cascading effects can be vicious or virtuous but
which they are is point of view (POV) dependent
– What’s bad for the bad guys is good from our POV
but bad from theirs
– In a HUMRO, what’s good for the object of our
attention is good from our POV and theirs
16
Effects-Based Plan Representation

EBO Terms

Objective
Effect Desired

(Isolate the Battlefield) • direct effect

• indirect effect
• complex effect
• cumulative effect

(Deny Access) Indicator

Task/Activity

(Mechanism)

17
 Indicators

• Are not effects

• Better to be observable then not but “not seen” does
not mean “not there”
Traffic Density
Acceleration of Win the War
Straggler Count Units in Bivouac

Destroy Will Stop Second Echelon

River Clear (Isolate the Battlefield)

Carpet Bomb Drop Leaflets Prevent River Destroy

Crossing Fuel Res.
(Deny Access)
Objective/Task/Activity Destroy Destroy
Effect Desired
Indicator Br1 Br2
DMPI 1 DMPI 2 18
 Strategy: Definitions

• The art & science of employing the armed forces…to

secure the objectives of national policy by the
application of force or the threat of force. [JP 1-02]
• A means1 to accomplish an end. [AFDD 2-1]
• The use of engagements for the object of the war. [Clausewitz]
• The art of distributing & applying military means2 to
fulfill the ends of policy. [B.H. Liddell Hart]
• A plan of action designed in order to achieve some
end; a purpose together with a system of measures for
its accomplishment. [RADM J.C. Wylie]
1 tool, implement resources
2

19
 Strategy, Objectives & Effects

• Goal, Strategic Aim, End-State: the realm of policy—the decisive results

– An end-state is the set of required conditions that achieve the
strategic objectives. [JP 3-0]
• Operational Art: determines where, when & for what purposes [why2]…
forces will be employed
– Use resources efficiently & effectively to achieve strategic objectives
[JP 3-0]

– Defines the parameters of operations (restraints & constraints) [FMFM 1-

1]

• Effects: the result (outcomes) of direct actions (e.g., missions) and

“indirect” actions (e.g., functions) [AFDD 2-1]

2 rationale

20
 Ends, Ways, Means, Risk

• Ends: What military conditions must be produced…to

achieve the strategic goal?
• Ways: What sequence of actions is most likely to
produce [those] condition(s)?
• Means2: How should resources…be applied to
accomplish that sequence of actions?
• Risk: What is the likely cost…in performing that
sequence of actions
[JP 3-0]

21
 Strategy, CONOPS & COA

• A verbal or graphic statement, in broad outline, of a

commander’s assumptions or intent in regard to an
operation….It is included primarily for additional
clarity of purpose. [JP 1-02]
– Commander’s Intent: end-state, purpose, method &
risk
• A plan that would accomplish a mission. Includes
CONOPS. Basis for the development of an OPLAN or
OPORD. [JP 1-02]
– Tasks—work to be done—given to tactical
(engagement level) units to accomplish.

22
Models

23
 Basic Model

Actions cause.. Mechanism explains Cause.. ..indirect effects

Attack BSA
Fielded Forces
Fielded Forces & MECHANISM MECHANISM Losses
Isolated; Supply &
Selected Advantage
Logistics Reduced
Infrastructure Over BiH
…direct effects and...
MECHANISM

Key Requirements: Bosnian

1. Predictive Models (e.g., IPB, Adversarial) Serbs
2. Common Ontology Accede to
3. Robust MS&A (e.g., Wargaming) NATO’s
Demands
24
 JIPB, ONA, PBA & EBO
ONA: JIPB + COA Options (JFHQ Con. Of Employment)
PBA: JIPB + ISR Planning + ISR Management (PBA CONOPS)
FUNCTIONS SUPPORTED BY DATA FUSION

Level 0
Level 1 Level 4
Describe Object
Sub-object
Situation Impact Determine
Level 2
Process
Level 3

Define EvaluateAssessment Refinement

OER
Data Assoc. Refinement
Refinement
Environment’s
& Estimation Adversary
Environment Adversary
Effects COAs
Effects-based
Entities Relationships Events Discovered operations is the
(Shallow (Intermediate (Intermediate, & Inferred
Extraction) Extraction) Deep Extraction) Knowledge ‘engine’ that drives
Increased Emphasis IPB, dynamic C2,
On PMESI SofS Analysis and ISR
management.
FUNCTIONS SUPPORTED BY EBO
Monitor Assess Plan Execute AF/XO IPB White Paper
Databases Increased Emphasis
& On Predicting Behaviors
Sensors
Supports JP 3-56.1 Stage I: Operational Environment Research 25
 Working Together

JBI

JBI Finds What’s

EBO Requests Known and Tasks
While the IPB process is sequential,
Actionable Information Generation of New
it is also continuous and cyclical. Information

EBO Fusion

Fusion Engines & Fuselets Generate New

26
Information & Pass to EBO
 EBO Macro Model

2. Operations &
Anticipated Predicted Effects
Responses
Campaign

Campaign
1. Desired
Plan Behavior Assess
(COG/TS Level)

Observed Effects
Combat
Combat

3. Actual
Operations
4. Actual
(Target Set /
Target / DMPI Responses
Level) (COG/Target System
Level)
27
Semantic Network

28
 Effects Based Operations (DTO IS.71)
Approach to Modeling EBO
JP 3-56.1 Campaign Planning Model Warden’s “Enemy As A System” Model
Target Systems
Infrastructure’s COGs Leadership
COGs System Essentials
Leadership Infrastructure
TGT Analysis
Missions Population
Objective Objectives Mechani sm Strategy System Essentials Forces
COA
Resources
COA Infrastructure
COG Analysis Tasks Population
Objectives Mechani sm Strategy
TGT Analysis
COA
Forces
Resources

COA Objectives Mechani sm Strategy

Resources
COA The System Essentials of Infrastructure’s COGs
Target Sets
Leadership
System Essentials
Infrastructure
Population
Fig. 7: Modified JP 3-56.1 Campaign Planning Model Forces

Barlow’s “National Elements of Value” Model McCrabb’s “Enemy Reactions” Model

6 Sensory Boundary
7 5 Internal Model
Internal Model
2 &&
Adaptation Space Library
Library
4 1
Intervening
3 Variables
Could Can
1. Leadership, 2. Industry, 3. Armed Forces, 4. Population,
5. Transportation, 6. Communications, 7. Alliances ”Target"
”Target" Should
Input Process Output Outcome

Size = Importance of NEV to National Leadership

Thickness = Importance of Connection to other NEV
 Campaign Model

Stage I: OER (IPB)

TGT Analysis
Campaign/ Mechanism
Mission/Activities
Objectives Strategy
Objectives Resources
COA COA
COG Analysis
Force/Tasks
Objectives Mechanism Strategy COA

Resources TGT Analysis

COA Objectives Mechanism Strategy

Resources
COA

Campaign Assessment

Combat Assessment

30
Modified from JP 3-56.1
Barlow’s NEVs

Stage III: COG Identification

31
 Warden’s “Rings” (Stage III)

Leadership
System Essentials
Infrastructure’s COGs Infrastructure
COGs Population
Leadership Forces

System Essentials
Infrastructure
Population
Forces

The System Essentials of Infrastructure’s COGs

Leadership
System Essentials
Infrastructure
Population
Forces
32
 McCrabb’s Agent Adaptation Space
(Stage I-V)

Sensory Boundary
Internal
InternalModel
Model
&
&
Adaptation Space Library
Library
Intervening
Variables

Agent
Agent
Input Process Output Outcome

33
 The (Almost) Complete Puzzle
(Stage I-V)

Objectives/
Commander’s Intent Desired Effects
(Stage II)

IPB Tools EBO/DTT

& Processes T&Ps
Bra
n ch
Wargaming Enemy COA vs.
Stage V COA Selected Friendly COA
(Stage IV)
a nch
Br 34
 Effects-Based Planning

Everything Starts from Commander’s Intent….

Identify Potential Identify Linked

Strategic COGs Operational Systems

Identify Specific
Identify “Targets”
Desired Effects

Generate COA

Supports JP 3-56.1 Stages II-V

Modified from Dave Deptula’s “Firing for Effect” 35
 Effects & Operational Art

What Conditions (End-States)

Results (Effects) =

Cause (Mechanism) Indicators Events

Why

How
Actions (Direct and/or Indirect) = Tasks + With, Who,
Where, When
= COA
Strategy (Ways, How): A Plan of Actions (Tasks)
that employ resources (means, with) 36

To accomplish Ends (What)

 Planning (Stage V)

What
Results (Effects) = Conditions (End-States)

Indicators
Cause (Mechanism) (Measures Events
Why Of Success)

How
Actions (Direct and/or Indirect) = Tasks + With, Who,
Where, When
= COA
37
 Execution & Assessment

Complex Effects Cascading Effects

Effect Achieved
Direct Effects Indirect Effects

Indicators Yes Effect Desired?

Cause Cause
No

Direct Actions Previous Effects Problem? Opportunity?

Re-Plan

Other & Previous Actions 38

 Adversarial Models
Model
Components,
Applications
Applicationsofof
Advanced Links, Processing
AdvancedModels
Modelsofof to Validate Human-in-the-Loop
Human-in-the-Loop
Complex, Dynamic
Complex, Dynamic Investigations
Decision Investigations
DecisionMaking
Makinginin Measures of
AADM/IO
AADM/IO Validation
Environment MOPs
Environment Necessary
Selection
Selectionof
of Characteristics for
Application
ApplicationArea
Area Vulnerable Process Investigations
Components Candidate
Characterization Characterizations Displays
Characterizationof
of Characteristics of
Application the Systems of Human Improved
Improved
Application Understanding
Environment
Environment
Dependencies & Understandingofof
Vulnerabilities Cultural
Cultural
Dependencies
Dependencies&& Differences
Differences&&
Vulnerabilities
Vulnerabilitiesofof Effects
Research Human Effects
Research HumanAiding
AidingSystem
System Dependencies &
Specifications
Specifications Potential
Potential Vulnerabilities
Countermeasures Needing Support Candidate
Countermeasures Displays MOPs
Display Solutions
Improved
Improved
Information
Information
Representations
Representations&&
Enhanced Operational Understanding Theoretical Understanding Multimodal
to Improve Subsequent Design to Support Displays Multimodal
Displays
Displays

Characteristics
Characteristicsofof
Improved
Improved Integration
Integration
Human
Human
Performance
Performance
Prototype
Prototype
Development
Development
&&Tests
Tests Requirements
Requirementsfor
for
Optimal
OptimalDesign
Design&&
Employment
Employment ofof 39
DF-based
DF-basedDAs
DAs
 Big Picture

Enemy’s Will
• EBO ATD seeks an (Leadership)
integrated set of strategy, Limited Occurrences ofEnemy
wargaming, COG analysis, Collateral Damage Military
and campaign assessment Compounding Will Enemy
tools. Political
environmental factors
Resolve
• Doctrinally sound; not Resolve of
dogmatically rigid
Effects Enemy’s
• Support EBO planning & population
assessment plus
objectives-based or Enemy Military Enemy Regional and
targets-based assessment CR’s, CV’s & CC’s International
National Enemy Support
• Major Theater War => Coalition
infrastructure
Humanitarian Relief; lethal
Unity
& nonlethal; kinetic & non- Physical
kinetic (e.g., Info Ops) Each vector needs a
damage
consistent scale or
(Enemy’s Available Militaryrelationship
traceable Worth) 40
 EBO Toolkit of the Future
for Dynamic Tasking

Campaign Planning Execution Combat Execution

& Assessment Planning & Assessment
Commander’s Intent
Observations Combat Assessment:
ISR Assistant Advanced Sensor Fusion
EIPB
Indicators Special
Targeting
Strategy Instructions
(JTT)
Development:
Campaign
- COA Develop Blue COAs
Assessment Dynamic
- COG Analysis Aerospace Executing
- Templates Execution Units
Target Set Analysis Order
Blue COAs MIDB

Operations
Controller
Wargaming
Asset Asset
Sourcing Pairing
Offensive Defensive TACS
* Reference AFRL/AC2ISRC CONOPS Controller Controller Controller
41
for Effects-Based Operations AODB
 EBO Key Products
• Strategy Development Tool
Strategy Development Tool
– produces blue COAs
– tightly integrates effects, center of
gravity/target system analysis & strategy Objectives Determination and
identification COG & Target Systems Analysis
– cross center of gravity interactions
– strategy & mission templates

Blue COA Probability of Blue

• Campaign Assessment Tool COA success
Campaign Assessment Tool
– predicts the probability of achieving
Commander’s intent for a blue COA

– model plan’s cause/effects relations

for a given campaign over time

– tradeoff analysis/drill down capability 42

 Strategy Development Tool Overview
File Edit Tools Templates Missions Show Help

Legend

Objective

Effect

(Isolate the Battlefield)

Effect
Indicator

(Deny Access)
Task

Mechanism

Task/Activity

43
 Campaign Assessment Tool Overview

Build A Causal Model Compile to a

Bayes Net Analyze Results

(Isolate the Battlefield)

(Deny
Access)

44
 EBO Approach to Homeland Defense
Financial Diplomacy
Lead To Indicator
Blue Red
Actions Decisions

Military Action

Influence Net
Red
Indicator Decides to
negotiate

EXECUTABLE MODEL

COAs
Red Decides to
(actions/ times) Terminate
Hostilities

Red Decides to
use WMD
GMU
George Mason Probability Profiles
 SDT:
ATD vs. Objective System
Anticipated Capabilities
• Limited coverage of
strategies, JFC/JFACC
missions; Limited IW
• Limited COG/TS analysis; no
Mission Analysis/Situation
Development
• No COA analysis/comparison
capability
• No JAOP development
support past COA option
development
• No CS (e.g., Logistics,
Mobility), TACS, or Space
considerations/Risk Analysis
Required Capabilities
• Covers all strategy options
• Covers all JFC missions (e.g.,
HUMRO, PK/PE, etc.)
• Covers all JFACC missions
(e.g., CA, SA, CL, etc.)
• Incorporates lethal/nonlethal,
kinetic/non-kinetic
applications of force
• Supports Joint Air Estimate
Process through JAOP
development (JP 3-30)
• Supports JFACC Daily
Guidance planning (JP 3-30)
46
 CAT:
ATD vs. Objective System
Anticipated Capabilities
• Outcome assessment at
Force and Campaign levels
• Limited ability to incorporate
evidence
• Complete drilldown,
predictive and reconstructive
assessment
• Value-of-information ISO
collection management and
branch planning
Required Capabilities
• Predictive assessment ISO
COA development
• Assessment of outcomes ISO
Engagement, Battle, Force
and Campaign execution
• Reconstructive assessment
of outcomes ISO plan
refinement
• Incorporation of all-source
information
• Drilldown to action, causes,
and mechanism level
47
 Summary

• Definitional issue only a start

– No approved dictionary let alone glossary or
encyclopedia
• Ontology common to all applications
– A common task but a common ontology server
– Basis for library
• Not just EBO: IPB (Fusion), JBI, IW, TUT, TST, etc.
• Shared language essential to shared understanding
– Shared understanding alone insufficient
48
Operation ALLIED FORCE

49
 Operation Allied Force EBO Example (1)
(from DOD AAR)

Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions

(total Desired Effect)

Air Attacks Solidarity of NATO

(Military Effect) (Diplomatic Effect)

Russian Diplomacy Buildup of NATO Ground Power

(Military-Diplomatic Effect)
(Diplomatic Effect)

Kosovar Albanian Attacks Sanctions, etc.

(Military Effect) (Economic Effect)

Expanded on Next Slide

50
 Operation Allied Force EBO Example (2)
(from DOD AAR)

Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions

(total Desired Effect)

Air Attacks on Strategic Targets Air Attacks on National C2 Targets

Air Attacks on Fielded Forces Targets Air Attacks on Military-Industrial Targets

Expanded on Next Slide

51
 Operation Allied Force EBO Example (3)
(from DOD AAR)

Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions

(total Desired Effect)
Desired
Political
Desired Degraded National C2 Effects
Military
Effects
Degraded Ability Degraded Ability
to C2 FRY Forces to Resupply Forces

Attacks on Infrastructure Freedom to Attack Attacks on Electrical Power

(e.g., bridges) (e.g., plants)

Degraded IADS
Physical
Actions Attack Serbian AF Avoid Serbian SHORAD
(e.g., aircraft, airbases) (e.g., fly above)

52