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Modeling Derechos Using WRF Uems
Modeling Derechos Using WRF Uems
WRF UEMS
By Joshua Anzalone
Introduction
• Then the modeled data would be compared to the real data to see
how well the modeled data ran.
Introduction Continued
• This storm extends 400km or greater in length. The wind gusts are at least 93km/h for most of its
duration.
• It also included gusts that are separated far apart that are at least 121km/h.
• Furthermore, derechos are associated with curved or bowed shaped showers or thunderstorms.
These are called bow echoes.
• It was further mentioned that large scale heat waves are favorable conditions for derechos to form
(Corfidi, 2017).
Experimental Methods
Conservation of energy:
Conservation of mass:
Conservation of momentum:
80
Humidity (%)
25
60
20 40 Humidity%
Temp. °C
15 20 Humidity% Model
Temp. °C Model
10 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
5 Time (h)
0
0 10 20 30 Time (h) 40 50 60 70 Figure 3: 2012 derecho humidity vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data.
Figure 1: 2012 derecho temperature vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data.
Wind Speed vs Time
Pressure vs Time 20
10
1012 Wind Speed m/s
Pressure hPa 5 Wind Speed m/s Model
1010
1008 Pressure hPa Model 0
0 20 40 60 80
1006
Time (h)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Time (h)
Figure 4: 2012 derecho wind speed vs time graph. In the real data, values that
were calm winds were given a value of 1m/s. Orange is the modeled Data.
Figure 2: 2012 derecho pressure vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data.
Results: 2012 Derecho Continued
100
Humidity (%)
30.00 80
20.00 60
Temp.°C Humidity %
10.00 40
Temp.°C Model 20 Humidity % Model
0.00 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 10 20 30 40
Time (h)
Time (h)
Figure 5: 2013 derecho temperature vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data. Figure 7: 2013 derecho humidity vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data.
1,018.00
Pressure vs Time Wind Speed vs Time
1,016.00 20.00
1,012.00
1,010.00 10.00
Pressure hPa Wind Speed m/s
1,008.00
5.00 Wind Speed m/s Model
1,006.00 Pressure hPa Model
1,004.00 0.00
1,002.00 0 10 20 30 40
1,000.00 Time (h)
0 10 20 30 40
Time (h)
Figure 8: 2013 derecho wind speed vs time graph. In the real data, values that
Figure 6: 2013 derecho pressure vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data. were calm winds were given a value of 1m/s. Orange is the modeled Data.
Results: 2013 Derecho Continued
• Figure 5 shows the temperature with respect to time. The real data and
the modeled data tend to line up.
• Figure 6 shows the pressure with respect to time. Here both the real and
modeled data tend to line up.
• Figure 7 shows the humidity with respect to time. The beginning and the
end tends to line up, but the middle does not.
• Figure 8 shows the wind speed with respect to time. Here the real data
does not support that there was a severe storm as the modeled data
suggests. Although it can be noted, that both suggest there is a storm at
the end of the simulation.
Results: 2014 Derecho
Humidity vs Time
Temperature vs Time
120
40
100
Temperature (C)
Humidity (%)
30 80
20 60
Temperature °C Humidity %
40
10 Humidity % Model
Temperature °C Model 20
0
0
0 10 20 30 40
0 10 20 30 40
Time (h)
Time (h)
Figure 9: 2014 derecho temperature vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data. Figure 11: 2014 derecho humidity vs time graph. Orange is the modeled Data.
15
1008
1006 10
Wind Speed m/s
1004 Pressure hPa 5
1002 Wind Speed m/s Model
Pressure hPa Model 0
1000
0 10 20 30 40
998
Time (h)
0 10 20 30 40
Time (h)
Figure 12: 2014 derecho wind speed vs time graph. In the real data, values that
Figure 10: 2014 derecho pressure vs time graph. Blue is the modeled Data. were calm winds were given a value of 1m/s. Orange is the modeled Data.
Results: 2014 Derecho Continued
• Figure 9 shows the temperature with respect to time. The real data and
the modeled data tend to not line up.
• Figure 10 shows the pressure with respect to time. Here both the real
and modeled data tend to line up.
• Figure 11 shows the humidity with respect to time. The modeled data
and the real data do not line up.
• Figure 12 shows the wind speed with respect to time. Here the real data
does not support that there was a storm that is as severe as the modeled
data suggests.
Analysis
• The modeled data showed that these derechos took place, however the
real data does not support the modeled data.
• I learned how to model data and then how to interpret that data.
• Even though my results were not what I was looking for, I learned
what I could try differently next time I run a model to get better
results.
References
• Bianco, Laura. (2008). The Weather Research & Forecasting Model WRF. Retrieved
from:
http://cires1.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke/classes/at7500/Bianco_Presenta
tionWRF.pdf
• Chapter 1. (2016). Chapter 01 – Introduction to the UEMS. Retrieved from:
http://strc.comet.ucar.edu/software/uems/userguide/emsguideV15_chapter01.pdf
• Corfidi Steohen, Evans Jeffry, Johns Robert, et al. (2017). About Derechos.
Retrieved from: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm
• UCAR NCAR. (2017). Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Retrieved from:
https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/weather-research-and-forecasting-model.
• Weather Underground. (2017). Weather Underground. Retrieved from:
https://www.wunderground.com/
Any Questions?