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Lanchester Equation For MAT 5932
Lanchester Equation For MAT 5932
MAT 5932
• Heterogeneous
• attrition is assessed by weapon type and target
type and other variability factors
The Homogeneous Model
• An “academic” model
• Useful for the review of
ancient battles
• Not proper model for
modern warfare
Heterogeneous Models
• CONCEPT: describe each type of
system's strength as a function
(usually sum of attritions) of all types
of systems which kill it
• ASSUME: additivity, i.e., no synergism;
can be relaxed with complex
enhancements; and proportionality,
i.e., loss rate of Xi is proportional to
number of Yj which engage it.
• No closed solutions, but can be solved
numerically
The Heterogeneous
model
• More appropriate for “modern” battlefield.
• The following battlefield functions are
sometimes combined and sometimes
modeled by separate algorithms:
• direct fire
• indirect fire
• air-to-ground fire
• ground-to-air fire
• air-to-air fire
• minefield attrition
The Heterogeneous
model
• The following processes are directly or indirectly
measured in the heterogeneous model:
• Opposing force strengths
• FEBA (forward edge of the battle area) movement
• Decision-making (including breakpoints)
Engagement Decision
Sensing
Target Selection
Movement
Lanchester Attrition Model
CONCEPT: describe the rate at which a force loses systems as a function of the
size of the force and the size of the enemy force. This results in a system of
differential equations in force sizes x and y.
dx dy
f 1 x, y,... f 2 x, y,...
dt dt
The solution to these equations as functions of x(t) and y(t) provide insights
about battle outcome.
dx dy
ay and bx
dt dt
Lanchester Attrition Model - Square Law
ab t a ab t
x(t ) 1 x 0
a
y e x0 y e
2 b 0
b 0
Square Law - Force Levels
Over Time
X=30, Y=60, a=.04, b=.04 X=30,
Example:
70
60 60
50
50
40
40
Fo rc e Le ve l
Fo rc e Le ve l
30
30
20
0 20
10
4
10
0
Time 8
-10 0
12
0 1 2 3 4 5
Y Force
X Forc e -10
60
50
40
30
Fo rce Le ve ls
20
10
0
0
5
Time -10
10
15
Y Force
20
X Force
25
90
80
70
60
Force Level
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
12
Time
24
-10
36
Y Force
48
60 X Force
120
100
100
80
80
60
Fo rce Level
Force Level
60
40
0 20 40
19 0
Time 38 20
-20
57 Y Force
X Force 0
0
5
10
15
20
-20
T
This is enough to turn the tide decidedly in Y's favor.
Square Law - Who Wins a
Fight-to-the-Finish?
To determine who will win, each side must have victory
conditions, i.e., we must have a "battle termination model".
Assume both sides fight to annihilation.
One of three outcomes at time tf, the end time of the battle:
X wins, i.e., x(tf) > 0 and y(tf) = 0
Y wins, i.e., y(tf) > 0 and x(tf) = 0
Draw, i.e., x(tf) = 0 and y(tf) = 0
It can be shown that a Square-Law battle will be won by X
if and only if: a
x
0
y 0
b
Lanchester Square Law - Other Answers
y b x2
1 2
0 BP
x 0