Unit 3 – Foreign Policy

Analysis
 Foreign Policy Analysis
• Foreign policy is designed to protect and
promote the national interest abroad
• Domestic policy is designed to protect and
promote the national interest within the
country
 National Interest
Promote a nation’s
• Security
• Stability
• Prosperity
 National Interest
Promote a nation’s
• Security
• Stability
• Prosperity
In the domains of
• Domestic
• Regional
• Global
 National Interest
Promote a nation’s
• Security
• Stability
• Prosperity
In the domains of
• Domestic
• Regional
• Global
Identify threats to those interests, formulate policy
 National Interest Policy Matrix
Domestic Regional Global

Security

Stability

Prosperity
 Foreign Policy Analysis
• Differing Models of Foreign Policy
Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)
– Individual Decision-maker (cognitive
paradigm)
• Examine the decision-maker using one of several
different approaches
Decision-making variables
 Affect

Decision-making variables
 Cognition

Affect

Decision-making variables
 Cognition

Affect

Personality

Decision-making variables
 Cognition

Affect

Group

Personality

Decision-making variables
 Social Milieu

Cognition

Affect

Group

Personality

Decision-making variables
 Social Milieu

Cognition

Affect

Group

Personality

Time

Decision-making variables
 Foreign Policy Analysis
• Differing Models of Foreign Policy
Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)
– Individual Decision-maker (cognitive
paradigm)
• Examine the decision-maker using one of several
different approaches
• This approach costly in time and resources
 Foreign Policy Analysis
• Differing Models of Foreign Policy
Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)
– Individual Decision-maker
– Bureaucratic Model
• Standard operating procedures
• Turf battles
 Iraq War case

President Bush

Secy State Natl Sec Advisor Secy Defense

Powell Rice Rumsfeld
 Foreign Policy Analysis
• Differing Models of Foreign Policy
Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)
– Individual Decision-maker
– Bureaucratic Model
– Neorealist Unitary Rational Actor model
• Assume rationality, assume unity
• Personalities and individual quirks are
epiphenomenal
• Focus on relative power status
Unitary Rational Actor
Black Box analogy

Environmental condition
Individual or group dynamics ignored

Party decision or behavior

 Greenstein’s Criteria
• When is it worth the time and resources to
open the black box? Remember Occam’s
razor “One should not increase, beyond
what is necessary, the number of entities
required to explain anything.”
 Greenstein’s Criteria
• The actor occupies a strategic position
• In an ambiguous or unstable situation
• Where there are no clear precedents
• Or spontaneous or especially effortful
behavior is required.