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Decline Curve Analysis
Decline Curve Analysis
Decline Curve Analysis
Decline Curves
Oil Rate
whatever controlled the trend of production in
the past will continue to govern the trend in the
future.
Its simplicity and transparency is responsible
for its widespread usage and adoption from
regulatory agencies like the SEC. Cumulative Oil Produced
History History
Forecast 1 Forecast 1
Trend 1 Trend 1
Forecast 2 Forecast 2
Trend 2 Trend 2
Oil Rate
Oil Rate
1 b di t
b
Forecast
Trend
Oil Rate
qi - initial production rate at (t = 0)
qi
b - hyperbolic exponent
qt
di - nominal decline factor
qi 1
1 1 b d i t b
1
Nt (2)
d i 1 b
di - major parameter determined from historical data and used in the forecast
b - varies between 0 and 1, (determines the shape of the decline at late times),
two special cases: b 0 (exponential decline) b 1 (harmonic decline)
7
Exponential Decline
Equation: qt qi e d i t when b0 (3)
qt t (4)
Exponential decline is also referred to as constant decline function: e di t
qt
qi qt (5)
Similarly the cumulative oil produced is expressed Nt
as: di
Equation (3) can be expressed as: ln qt ln qi d i t (6)
In logarithmic expression, equation (6) can be rewritten as: log 10 qt log 10 qi Ci d i t (7)
Equations (7 and 8) are straight line expression that forms the basis of exponential decline analysis
Notes:
Exponential declines are used for 1P reserve estimates (high confidence case)
Exponential trends declines rapidly at late times as a result of the small value of hyperbolic exponent.
Straight line trends on plots of oil rates vs. cumulative production (linear axes – equation 8) and oil rate vs.
time (semi-logarithmic axes – equation 7) are commonly used for analysing exponential declines
8
Harmonic Decline
qi
Equation: qt when b 1 (9)
1 d i t
q i qi (10)
Integrating equation (9), with respect to time to yield Nt: Nt ln
d i qt
di
Equation (10) can be rearranged to give: ln qt ln qi Nt (11)
qi
Ci d i N t (12)
In logarithmic expression, equation (11) can be rewritten as: log 10 qt log 10 qi
qi
Equation (12) is a straight line expression when oil rate is plotted against cumulative production on
semi-logarithmic axes
Notes:
Harmonic declines are used for 3P reserve estimates (low confidence case)
Harmonic declines exhibit elongated tail at late times as a result of the high value (approaching 1) of the
hyperbolic exponent.
9
Hyperbolic Decline
Hyperbolic declines results when 0 b 1 there are no straight line trends associated with this plot
The ratio between the rate at the start of a time step and the rate at the start of the preceding time step is a
declining function of t.
. The degree of conservatism of a hyperbolic function is inversely proportional to the value of b. Low values of b
gives more conservative forecast than high values of b and are more likely to be used to support proved reserves
Diagnostic Plots
The easiest trend for the human eye to identify is a straight line, as such when doing DCA straight line trends are
often as diagnostic plots.
A preference for straight lines trends limits prospective analyses to either exponential or harmonic decline since there
are no simple plots that result in straight lines for hyperbolic functions.
Straight line trends on logarithmic scales are effective in creating the illusion of a straight line which can
oftentimes be misleading, logarithmic scales also tend to “de-sensitize” data which may lead to an erroneous
selection of a representative decline trend.
For the purpose of reserves reporting, the use of straight line plots is strongly recommended.
10
Diagnostic Plots
1. Oil rate vs. Time (linear-axes)
It is rare to use this plot for the purpose of DCA because
downtimes create gaps in the historical data.
Oil Rate
It is essential that this plot should include information such smooth transition
as historical production rates, the trend(s) fitted into the
license
historical data, the forecast(s) and truncation points. expiry
economic
Points to consider when using this plot for quality control rate
are;
Date
Transition from history into forecast
Diagnostic Plots
2. Oil rate vs. Time (Semi-logarithmic axes)
Oil Rate
transition
Downtimes exists as gaps in the historical
data, it also suffers from the limitations
discussed previously on logarithmic plots.
economic
This plot can be used to support other History
rate license
types of plots, its is advised that this plot Forecast
expiry
should not be used solely as the analytical Trend
tool in DCA
. Date
12
Diagnostic Plots
3. Oil rate vs. Cumulative production (linear-axes)
This is one of the simplest and most useful plots for
DCA.
History
It reduces (but does not totally eliminate) the adverse Forecast
downtime
effects of downtime experienced with rate vs. time plots. Trend
point
Oil Rate
determining whether to use “calendar-day rates” or
“producing-day” rates. smooth
transition
For the vast majority of oil wells, this plot is very useful Economic
and is strongly recommended that this plot should be rate
made whenever DCA is being done.
license
In this plot as well as other plots the influence of Cumulative Oil Produced expiry
hyperbolic exponent b becomes more pronounced later
on while early on, the curve is dominated by the nominal
decline factor di.
13
Diagnostic Plots
Downtime
Straight line trends on this plot results in highly point
optimistic reserves (3P). History Forecast
Smooth
This plot is rarely used for the determination of 1P transition
reserves unless compelling arguments can be
Oil Rate
provided to justify it.
Diagnostic Plots
5. Water cut vs. Cumulative production (linear axes)
This is the classic plot for a well whose oil
production rate is declining as a consequence of
increasing water-cut. Common in mature active
water-floods or natural aquifer influx. 8.0 1.0
Wcut (Frac)
Smooth
Extrapolation of a water-cut trend can lead to 6.0
Transition
Economic
0.8
Liquid Rate
established. This plot should therefore be used as 0.6
the primary analysis tool when the water cut has 4.0 Actual Liq Rate
reached high values. 0.4 Forecast Liq Rate
Actual WCut
Forecast WCut
This plot is only recommended when it is 2.0
Trend
0.2
established that water-cut development is the Forecast
License
History expiry
cause of declining oil rates.
0.0 0.0
A major limitation of this plot is that it does not Cumulative Oil Produced
lead to an oil rate vs. time forecast (DCA’s main
objective).
Diagnostic Plots
6. WOR vs. Cumulative production (semi-logarithmic axes)
Oil Rate(Mstb/d)
12.0 Actual Liq Rate 0.8
Actual WCut
Wcut (Frac)
plots are unsuitable 9.0
QL (Mstb/d)
9.0 0.6
6.0
3.0
decline trend 3.0 0.2
0.0
0.0 0.0
Same initial oil rates were 0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40
Np (MMstb)
60 80 100
History
15
History
Since no straight line trends 1P Forecast 1P
1P Trend 12 2P
are hyperbolic, 2P forecasts
Oil Rate (Mstb/d)
10.0 3P
were determined as the
Oil Rate
9
Date
2P: 20.3 MMstb Np (MMstb)
3P: 26.4 MMstb 3P Plot, Log Qo vs. Np 1P, 2P and 3P Forecasts till
2050
17
Wcut (Frac)
1P Trend
Same initial oil rates were Low water cut Good decline trend; 1P Plot, Qo vs. Np
used for all the profiles, thus 10.0
all the profiles start at the 1.5
History
same point 3P Forecast History
1.2 1P
3P Trend
2P
3P
Economic cut-off rate of 50 0.9
0.0
0.0
Reserves at 2050 are: 0 2 4 6 8
Jan-70 Jan-90 Jan-10 Jan-30 Jan-50
Date
Np (MMstb)
1P: 1.5 MMstb
2P: 1.8 MMstb 3P Plot, Log Qo vs. Np 1P, 2P and 3P Forecasts till economic cut
3P: 2.1 MMstb off rate of 50 stb/d is reached
18
Wcut (Frac)
QL (Mstb/d)
1P Trend
0.2
1.0
decline trend
0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Np (MMstb) 0 10 20 30 40
Np (MMstb)
3.0
Wcut (Frac)
QL (Mstb/d)
0.6
4.0
plots 3.0
0.4
1.00
Actual Liq Rate
Actual Liq Rate
plots)
Trend
0.0 0.0
0.01
0 5 10 15 20
Comparison of reserves
0 5 10 15 20 25
Np (MMbbls) Np (MMbbls)
1P Trend
4.0
3P 4.2 3.5
3.0 1.0
Wcut (Frac)
are also observed on the oil
QL (Mstb/d)
3.0 0.6
plots
1.00 Actual Liq Rate
2.0 0.4 Forecast Liq Rate
Actual Liq Rate Actual WOR
Forecast Liq Rate 0.10 Forecast WOR
1.0 0.2 Trend
plots) Np (MMbbls)
Np (MMbbls)
Comparison of reserves
(MMstb) at license expiry 5.0 100.0
History History
for the two methods are: 4.0 1P Forecast
3P Forecast
3P Trend
1P Trend
Oil Rate (Mstb/d)
0.1
0.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
WCut plot reserves are 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Np (MMstb)
80
Typical examples of DCA plots 1P (Qg vs. Gp)
History
1P Forecast
Gas Fields: 60
1P Trend
Res. Bscf 10
1P 15
2P 38
3P 61
1
100 130 160 190 220 250
Gp (Bscf)
22
250 History
1P Forecast
This example is from a North Sea gas field 200
is: Cumulative gas produced (Gp in Bscf) vs. Gas rate 100
(Qg in MMscf/d).
50
Refer to the provided spreadsheet for full analysis 3P (Qg vs. Gp)
History
3P Forecast
3P Trend
The table below shows the calculated 1P, 2P and 3P 100
Res. Bscf
10
1P 59
2P 134
3P 213 1
0 200 400 600 800
Gp (Bscf)
23
reserves.
Gas Rate (MMscf/d)
Res. Bscf
10
1P 4.3
2P 13.6
3P 22.9 1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Gp (Bscf)
24
Conclusions
DCA is the most widely used tool in reserves estimation and production
forecasting
Since the basic assumption underlying all DCA is that whatever governs
decline in the past will continue in the future, this assumption may not be
valid if DCA is carried out at the reservoir or field level especially is there
is changing well count.
Thank You