Skilled Migration and Development

Research to Operations

Conference on Migration and Development May 23-24

Washington DC

Caglar Ozden
Development Research Group
WORLD BANK
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION &
DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH PROGRAM

Objectives
 Fill the gaps in the existing knowledge about migration by
gathering data and conducting analysis
 Inform policy makers and contribute to managing the risk
and enhancing the benefits of migration
Main research areas
 Determinants and impact of Migration and Remittances in
source countries
 Brain drain
 Temporary movement of persons (including Mode IV of the
GATS)
 Links between trade, FDI and migration
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION &
DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH PROGRAM

Output
 New global databases on: bilateral migration stocks, brain
drain and medical brain drain (MBD)
 50 working papers of which many have been published in
top journals
 Edited Volume: International Migration, Remittances &
Brain Drain
 Forthcoming Volume: International Migration, Economics
Development & Policy
 Planned: Medical Brain Drain
Brain Drain
Brain Drain
Share of Educated Population Living Abroad
Caribbean

Central America

South America

South Asia

East Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East/North Africa

Eastern Europe

Western Europe

North America

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Brain Drain
Share of Population Living Abroad

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Small Median Large
Countries Countries
(<650K) (>30M)
Total Tertiary educated
Brain Drain

Migrants from Developing Countries in 2000 (Mil.)

25

20

41%
15
20%
10

5
57%
0
Australia+Canada Europe USA

Others Tertiary
Brain Drain
Age of Migration & Location of Education

Share of College Educated Migrants by Age of Arrival to the US

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Mexico Central America Caribbean Andean South America
0-5 6-12 13-17 18-21
Brain Drain
Female Migrants in the US

Predicted Probability of Employment vs. Years in the US

100%

80%

Canada
60% Mexico
United Kingdom
China
40% India
Nigeria

20%

0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Brain Drain
Female Migrants in the US

Predicted wage ($ thousands) vs. Years in the US

40

35

Canada
30 Mexico
United Kingdom
China
25 India
Nigeria

20

15
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
MEDICAL BRAIN DRAIN

 The most complete dataset on physicians’ emigration

rate for the period 1991-2004

 Data collected from medical associations and statistical

institutions in 16 important OECD countries

 Migrants are defined as those trained, rather than born,

in their home country
MEDICAL BRAIN DRAIN

 Small and low-income countries are the most

affected by medical brain drain (MBD)
 Contrary to the general trends observed for post-
secondary educated workers, the MBD drastically
rose in small and low-income countries
 The most affected regions are the Middle East
and North Africa, South Asia (SA) and Sub-
Saharan Africa (SSA)
 12 out of the 30 most affected countries in 2004
are in SSA
 Severe increase in MBD over time is observed in
Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia and Togo
MEDICAL BRAIN DRAIN
MEDICAL BRAIN DRAIN
30 MOST AFFECTED COUNTRIES IN 2004

Zimbabwe
Zambia
Uganda
Sudan
Sri Lanka
South Africa
Somalia
Sao Tome and Principe
Saint Lucia
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Papua New Guinea
New Zealand
Malta
Malawi
Luxembourg 2004
Liberia 1991
Jamaica
Ireland
Iraq
Iceland
Haiti
Grenada
Ghana
Fiji
Ethiopia
East Timor
Dominican Republic
Dominica
China, Hong Kong
Cape Verde

0 20 40 60 80 100
MEDICAL BRAIN DRAIN
WESTERN AFRICA 1991-2004

45

40
Benin

35 Burkina Faso
Cote d'Ivoire
Gambia, The
30
Ghana
Guinea
25 Guinea-Bissau
%

Liberia
20 Mali
Mauritania
Niger
15
Nigeria
Senegal
10
Sierra Leone
Togo
5

0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
MEDICAL BRAIN DRAIN
Research Project in Ghana

Objectives
 Understand the determinants for Medical Brain Drain
in Ghana

 Identify how Ghana could turn brain drain into brain

gain and what is the impact on medical education

 Find out the diaspora resources can be organized and

effectively used in Ghana
MEDICAL BRAIN DRAIN
Research Project in Ghana

Methodology

 Conduct specifically designed survey of physicians

 physicians currently in Ghana
 physicians abroad
 medical students

 After compilation of data, rigorous analysis

 Policy recommendations and implementation

 World Bank operational units + government + doctors!!!
FUTURE