The Role of the Coast in the

Economy of Nations

Prof Kerry Turner

Littoral 2010 Conference: Royal Geographical

Society, London – September 2010
Some key conceptual challenges

• BETTER INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE

humans are an integral component of the ecology and function of all
ecosystems (including coastal/marine systems); few if any environmental
change processes do not now have a human signature

• THE WATER CONTINUUM OF A RIVER BASIN CATCHMENT AND

ITS RELIEVING COASTAL/OCEAN SYSTEMS
is a fundamental unit for coastal assessment and management

• AN ECOSYSTEM SERVICES APPROACH IS REQUIRED FOR

BETTER COASTAL MANAGEMENT
the overall management strategy should be built on the foundations of
the emerging principles of adaptive management (‘learning by doing’)
Coastal Zone Management Issues

• PAST INDUSTRIALISATION AND AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION

historical pollution/contamination legacy

• GLOBALISATION AND THE CONTEMPORARY FINANCIAL CRISIS:

Degree of connectivity between ecosystems and socio-economic

systems – COEVOLUTION PROCESS

Weak versus Strong Sustainability

the policy and management challenge for coastal zones is to ensure the
continued availability of coastal resources (natural capital) which are
under intense utilisation pressure from a source and sink perspective

SHIFT FROM WEAK TOWARDS STRONG SUSTAINABILITY

 The Formal Economy
• Global Economic Activity (GDP/GNP) fueled by consumer spending and
international trade, together with population growth, are pressurizing ecosystem
support systems possibly to breaking point.

Source: World Bank Data - www.worldbank.org

• Our concept of wealth and human progress post the global “credit crunch’’ crisis
needs reappraisal.
• The depletion/degradation of our natural capital stock is a cost which has been
largely ignored. A recent estimate tentatively puts this cost at $3 trillion pa (2006)
(Bartelmus 2009).
Equity, Resilience and Vulnerability

• Poor people and communities are least able to cope with

the negative socio-economic and environmental
consequences of globalization and climate change and
remain in a poverty trap. Poorer countries seem to be
bearing a disproportionate cost burden as the global
economy and international trade have expanded
(Srinivasan et al. 2008).

• Increased global connectivity may mean increased

vulnerability to system shocks e.g. financial crisis but also
climate and environmental changes.
Vulnerability and System Shock

Source: OECD - www.oecd.org

 Globalisation – Growth – Inequality - Poverty

Growth – Inequality – Poverty Triangle

Macro Economic Growth (GDP/GNP)

Globalisation – Poverty Nexus

• Context Specific Effect – (+) (+/-)

heterogeneity and complexity
Globalisation
Market,
• Macro economic growth
process and changes in income Trade, Poverty
distribution both effect poverty Investment,
and inequity Liberalisation
(+) (+/-)

Distribution

Notes: (+/-) = direction of causality open to debate

Adapted from: Nissanke and Thorbecke (2010) World Development

 GDP growth and Poverty (1)
A
200

180

160

140

120
Index (1990)

100

80
Value of World Exports
60 GWP
Poverty $2/day
40

20

The graph shows the value of the world’s exports, gross world product and $2/day poverty line
as indexes (1990=100). Despite large gains in GWP and global trade, the number of living on
below $2/ day has stayed quite steady.
GDP growth and Poverty (2)
B
50

Richest 10%'s mean

income
40

30

20
Poorest 60%'s mean
income
10

0
1 1820 1992

The graph shows the mean incomes of the poorest 60% of countries and the richest
10% for the years 1820 and 1992 (indexed poor countries = 1 in 1820). The four-fold
difference in 1820 was up to a 10-fold difference in 1992.
 Globalisation and Coastal Zones (1)
Coastal zones are often in the frontline when it comes to globalisation
drivers, pressures and impacts.

International Trade as
the engine of global
economic activity and
growth;

Seaborne transport is
responsible for up to
90% of world trade
(€200-300 billion
industry);

Tonnage of seaborne
trade (import and
export), its volume
and geographic
distribution is a
function of GDP.

Source: Halpern et al. Science VOL 319 (2008).

 Globalisation and Coastal Zones (2)
Over the last 4 decades seaborne trade has nearly quadrupled.

Source: Fernleys & Clarksons. Source: Lloyd’s Register/Fairplay World Fleet Statistic.
 Globalisation and Coastal Zones (3)

Trade, finance and advertising, increased economic integration

and openness via mechanisms such as (for example):

• Trade and investment liberalisation (‘light touch’ regulation)

• Increased national and international movements of capital
labour
• Technological change and diffusion of knowledge
• Global information flows
Globalisation and Coastal Zones (4)

Urbanisation and the rise of Megacities

• Approx 50% of global population lives in cities

• Future population growth is expected to be concentrated in

urban areas

• According to the UN > 60% of megacities are located in

coastal areas vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise

• Megacities are significant contributors to GNP and are

growing 20% faster than other cities
Globalisation and Coastal Zones (5)

Coastal zones are subject to ‘natural’ dynamic environmental

change but contain systems that are resilient to stress and
shock i.e. able to maintain functioning capacities.

• Coastal economies tend to be quite diverse and may be

more resilient with substantial adaptive capacity.

• But in developing countries, in particular, poorest people are

being concentrated in potentially hazardous urban areas, thus
increasing the vulnerability of the whole city.

So, EQUITY is an important factor in resilience and adaptation

potential of megacities.
Defining Ecosystem Services

 MA ‘the benefits that people obtain from ecosystems’:

supporting, regulating, provisioning and cultural

 Adaption & reorientation to more operational classification system

for use in accounting (Boyd & Banzhaf, 2007), landscape
management (Wallace, 2007), and valuation (Fisher & Turner, 2008)

 Fisher & Turner (2008) ‘ecosystem services are the aspects of

ecosystems utilized (actively or passively) to produce human
wellbeing’

• Transparent method which helps to avoid ‘double counting’

• Recognises: intermediate service, final services & benefits
Ecosystem Services: key feature

For economic valuation purposes, key feature of Fisher’s

et al. (2009) definition is the separation of ecosystem
processes and functions in
intermediate and final services.

Intermediate services Final services Benefits

Geodynamics:
sediment and
Creation of Flood/storm
nutrient cycling
beaches, buffering;
and transport;
dunes, and Shoreline
Primary
other places stabilisation /
production;
of human erosion
Water cycling;
enjoyment control;
Climate
mitigation recreation
 Spatial Explicitness

• ES are context dependent in terms of their

provision and associated benefits and costs Relationships between
ecosystem service production
and benefit flows
• Many service values change across
soil formation pollination
landscape, due to geographical variation in
biophysical supply or demand 1 2

eg how scarce or abundant clean water;

P/B P
eg how large the adjacent population is or B
how wealthy they are
3 4

• Other service values will be constant across P P

B
landscape or globally e.g. value of carbon
stored (damage costs avoided) B
water storm
Important to understand underlying regulation mitigation
biophysical structure and processes
through spatially explicit models
Classification of Marine and Coastal
Ecosystem Services
ECOSYSTEM CLASSES
Specific characteristics of
the coastal-marine
ecosystem as determined
by locational factors and
structures of the area
Open sea
Coastal areas /
estuaries and salt
marshes
INTERMEDIATE FINAL SERVICES
SERVICES
The result of the ecosystem
A service that comes process (ecosystem functions)
from other factors than
the ecosystem itself
(ecosystem processes)
Primary production Regulation of water flow and
Climate mitigation quality
Geodynamics: Habitat for many aquatic
sediment and nutrient species
cycling and transport
Primary production Creation of beaches, dunes and
Water cycling other places of human enjoyment
Climate mitigation Sediments, nutrients,
contaminants retention/storage
Biomass export
Regulation of water flow and
quality
Carbon sequestration
Maintenance of fish nurseries
and refuges
Habitat for migratory and other
species
Biodiversity maintenance
BENEFITS
The benefits of the ecosystem
for humans
Carbon dioxide control
Biodiversity maintenance
Amenity and recreation
Water ways (transportation)
Flood/storm buffering
Shoreline stabilisation /
erosion control
Carbon storage
Fish production
Ecosystem stability/resilience
Amenity and recreation
provision
Cultural / heritage
conservation
 Ecosystem Services Sequential Steps:
A Framework for Appropriate Economic Valuation.

Spatial ‘Marginal Double Non Threshold

explicitness Changes’ counting linearities Effects

Ecosystem Economic Competition Non-linearities The next unit

service theory works and/or in services, loss must not be
provision and best when complementarities benefits, and capable of
beneficiaries changes are between individual costs require tipping the
heterogeneity relatively services should be explicit ecosystem into
across spaces small or identified consideration an alternative
should be incremental state
incorporated

Source: Morse-Jones et al. (2008).