Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Financial Management
Financial Management
Thomas A. Farin
Chairman , President and Chief Executive Officer
Farin and Associates, Inc.
1
Strategic Thinking for
Today’s Challenges
Tom Farin (800) 236-3724
www.farin.com
President
tfarin@farin.com
www.fpwrestle.com
Beginning Question
Traditional Measures
Net income
ROA
ROE Our focus
Earnings per share
Total stockholder return
All incorporate net income
Financial institutions of all kind need to focus on ROE as the
primary measure of effectiveness of performance.
•Stock institutions – measures how effectively stockholders
capital is being used to produce income.
•Mutuals and credit unions – measures the grown rate of the
capital account which becomes a constraint on the
institution’s ability to grow assets.
Management of financial
leverage (capital) is a key
Capital Risk to delivering an effective return.
IRR Definitions
1. IAR – Income at Risk
2. VAR – Value at Risk Regulatory
• EVE, NPV, MVPE, Viewpoint
NEV
1400
1200
1000
800
600 N P V - C as h
Duration is weighted average
400 Of time of receipt of cash flows
-- 3 years
200
0
Y e ar Y ea r Y ear Y ear Y e ar Y ear
1 2 3 4 5 6 Strategic Thinking © 2003 - Slide 14
Duration To Price
$110
$105
Price
$100
Value
$95
$90
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
Rate Change (%)
Chg MV = - D x Chg MR
-6% = -3 x 2%
5 Year Treasury
7 Year Bond
1 Year Call 15 Year FR MBS
1 25
1 15
1 05
C allable
Trea sur
95
Bond ge ts ca lled in falling
85 rate environm e nt shorte ning
Tre as D
D ura tion
75 Bond D =
-3 % -2 % -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
Strategic Thinking © 2003 - Slide 18
Convexity
1 25
MBS prepayments increase in falling
1 15 rate environment – shortening duration
Treas D = MBS D
1 05
Tre
MB
95
MBS prepayments decrease in rising
85 rate environment – lengthening duration
75
-3% -2 % -1 % 0% 1% 2% 3%
Strategic Thinking © 2003 - Slide 19
Value at Risk (VAR) – Regulatory View of IRR
NPV, MVPE, EVE, NEV
Calculation Technique Advantages
Calculate market value of all assets Supported By Most AL Models
and liabilities on balance sheet.
Economic value = MVA - MVL Meets Most Regulatory
Repeat calculations for variety of Requirements For
immediate and permanent changes in OTS - Manditory
market rates. Cash flows are
recalculated for each rate Banking & Credit Union
environment. Agencies – recommended for
Value at risk equal to changes in shops with complex balance
economic value caused by rate
shocks. sheets
Application In IRR Management Disadvantages
Used to evaluate effect of changes on Assumption Intensive
rates on value of instruments over
remaining life. Control – Post-Shock economic value
Sums to changes in economic value. and sensitivity
From TB 13-a
http://www.ots.treas.gov/bltn_thrift.html
Definition Advantages
A computer model is used to Model used for income at risk
project an institution’s financial analysis can be used for multiple
purposes.
statements based on a set of
Budgeting
assumptions. The effect of
changes in rates on income can Strategic Planning
be measured by running multiple Interest Rate Risk Analysis
rate environments. Fluctuations Measures what management is
in income under the different rate most concerned about over short
and medium term – the effect of
environments are income at risk
changes in rate on bottom line and
as measured by the model. performance measures driven off
the bottom line – ROA, ROE, EPS,
etc.
Disadvantages
Cost
Data and Time Intensive
Ideally your plan must be in place
in model.
“Let’s Make as
Unacceptable Which of the Three
Much Money As
Strategy. ROE Acceptable
We Can While
Drops 40% Strategies Would
Betting No More from Flat to You Choose?
than 25% of the +300 bp.
Bottom Line.”
Calculation Technique
Rates
Static
Run a computer simulation run VAR
of one or more management
strategies in a single rate
environment. Time
Run a VAR Test on forecast
balance sheet
Application In IRR Management
Rates
Used to evaluate effect of a Dynamic
strategy on future VAR. IAR
Only effective way to test the
long-term effect of changes in
rates on a strategy. Time
Can be used as tool in
comparing risk-return tradeoffs
of alternative strategies. Rates
Dynamic
VAR
Time
Strategic Thinking © 2003 - Slide 27
Dynamic Value at Risk Example
Book -200 bp Flat +2
Portfolio Equity - Strat 1 $39,510,000 $53,738,000 $51,831,000 $47
Portfolio Equity – Strat 2 $39,834,000 $57,305,000 $52,591,000 $43
Port Equity Ratio - Strat 1 10.90% 14.21% 13.84%
Port Equity Ratio – Strat 2 10.59% 14.51% 13.54%
Rate Sensitivity – Strat 1 0 36.6 0
Rate Sensitivity – Strat 2 97.6 0
Post-Shock Interest Sensitivity Measure
NPV Ratio 0-100 bp 100-200 bp 200-400 bp Over 400 bp
OTS
guideline
for S in Over 12% Minimal (1) Minimal (1) Minimal (1) Moderate (2)
CAMELS 8% to 12% Minimal (1) Minimal (1) Moderate (2) Significant (3)
Suggested Approach
Use OTS TB 13-a Sensitivity guidelines as a starting point.
Ask yourself, “What is the lowest rating for S in sensitivity we are willing
to accept?”
Set limits based on answer.
A top 10 credit union decided that because of their minimal liquidity and
credit risk, they could afford to go to a 2 rating for Sensitivity. As a result any
of the above post-shock/sensitivity combinations would be acceptable.
Liquidity Risk Ratio Report as of 12/00 Current Cash Flows by Quarter Ending
Balances in Millions Balance Jan-01 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01
Uses of Funds
Deposits
Outflow of Non-Maturity Deposits 0 0 0 0
Maturing Term Deposits 19,252 14,160 14,160 14,160
Maturing Brokered Deposits 0 0 0 0
Maturing Deposits > $100K 1,662 690 690 690
Borrowed Funds
Decrease in FHLB Overnight Borrowings 0 0 0 0
Decrease in Other Overnight Borrowings 0 0 0 0
FHLB Maturing Borrowed Funds 0 0 0 0
FHLB Debt Service on Amortizing Debt 0 0 0 0
Other Maturing Borrowed Funds 0 0 0 0
Other Debt Service on Amortizing Debt 0 0 0 0
Loans
New Loan Originations 0 0 0 0
Non-Interest Bearing Accounts
Increase in Non-Earning Assets 306 290 290 300
Decrease in Non-Deposit NIB Liabilities 0 0 0 0
Capital
Stock Repurchase 0 0 0 0
Total Uses of Funds
By Period 0 21,220 15,140 15,140 15,150
Cumulative 0 21,220 36,361 51,501 66,651
Deposits Borrowings
Largest portion of non-capital funding Smaller portion of non-capital funding
Creates franchise value when well Neutral to franchise value
priced No customer relationship
Customer relationship Generally can have as much volume
as you want at market rates – subject
Pricing is used to increase or to credit approval
decrease volume No origination and servicing cost
Costs money to originate and service May have interest rate risk and
May have interest rate risk and option risk
option risk Cost is generally higher
Cost is generally lower Considered by some to be an
Greatest value is in non-maturity undesirable source of funding
deposits because of rate and duration Common sources
FHLB
Bond Market
Fed funds
Repos
Brokered CDs
Benchmark rates
Marginal cost
Can be applied to individual account
(savings account example)
Can be applied to a sector (CD
example)
Before Change
After Change
Difference
Pricing rules
Current – All accounts priced at midpoint of market
Proposed – All accounts priced at top of market
Strategic Thinking © 2003 - Slide 47
Pay the Best Rate, Not the Best Rates –
Offensive Special
Pricing rules
Current – All accounts priced at midpoint of market
Proposed – CD special priced at top rate offered under previous strategy
Strategic Thinking © 2003 - Slide 49
Effective Financial
Management Keys
Loans Investments
Represents largest % of earning Smaller % of earning assets
assets
Neutral to franchise value
Creates franchise value when
well priced Does not lead to a customer
Cornerstone of many customer relationship
relationships Generally less credit risk
Can have significant credit risk Generally more liquid
Generally less liquid Requires less capital to fund
Requires more capital to fund Generally you can have as much
Pricing used to increase and volume as you want at market
decrease volume rates.
Costs money to originate and No origination and servicing cost
service
May have interest rate risk and
May have interest rate risk and
option risk option risk
Generally a higher yield given Generally a lower yield given
risks and costs risks and costs.
Originates Purchases
Mortgage Mortgages
Loans for Sale From Institution
Financial Fannie
Institution Mae
Credit Class A B C Av
Credit Adjustment 0.2 0.5 2.5 0
6.846%
Without
segmentation
Marginal yield is higher as rate is dropped for only rate sensitive customers (A’s)
Yield/Cost
Institution makes long-term
CD & MMDA Cost Treasury interest payments
CD & MMDA Cost covered with short-term
Treasury interest payments
0 +100 +200 +300 +400 +500 0 +100 +200 +300 +400 +500
Rates -- > Rates -- >
Strategic Thinking © 2003 - Slide 68
Using a SWAP to Minimize Funding Costs
5
Situation – Customers prefer 4.5
short-term CDs. They require a
4
significant rate inducement to
move CDs to 5-7 years. Institution 3.5 Swap
needs 5-7 year funding for fixed- 3 Curv
rate mortgage lending. Here are 2.5
2 CD
two options:
Pay a the premium customers 1.5 Curv
demand for 5-7 year CDs. 1
Accept ‘cheap’ short-term 0.5
funding from customers and Swap 0
to 5-7 years.
Yr
Yr
M
7
1
Income
Price
Term
Index
0
Strike point
Notional principal
0 +100 +200 +300 +400 +500
How it works:
You pay a price for the cap. The Rates -- >
price is generally amortized over Amortized price Income accelerates
the life of the instrument. after strike point is
When the index rises past the reached.
strike point, you receive income
equal to the difference between Speculative use – Use an
the index and the strike point times investment in an interest rate cap
the notional principal. to bet on rising rates.
Yield/Cost
CD plus CAP Cost
CD Cost CD Cost
0 +100 +200 +300 +400 +500 0 +100 +200 +300 +400 +500
Rates -- > Rates -- >
Income
On-balance sheet income On-balance sheet income
0 +100 +200 +300 +400 +500 0 +100 +200 +300 +400 +500