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管理經濟學考試回顧

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原則
 Step 1辨識題型
 Step 2針對題型提供重點回顧
 Step 3作業分析
 Step 4作業解答
 Step 5個案分析
 Step 6個案重點解答

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設計
 題型001- 工具、實質選擇權
 第一篇：個人選擇最佳化
 題型002- 代理問題
 題型003- 逆選擇、道德風險
 題型004- 套牢問題
 第二篇：消費者
 題型005- 需求分析
 第三篇：供給者
 題型006- 廠商分析、賽局
 第四篇：綜合
 題型007- 合約理論

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個案背景
主軸：Neflix
議題：擴展海外市場嗎? 會遇到什麼問題?
子議題：
1. 評估海外市場的原則 (NPV)、策略(Real Option, Ch1)
2. 當地競爭者的合作(Ch2 Ch3合約、Ch4 不完全合約,Holdon )
3. 消費者分析(Ch5 TAM)
4. 訂價策略(Ch6 各種定價)
5. 法規風險(Ch7 )

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 In short, Netflix wanna enter the international market, but there are at
least three main concerns:
 (1) Pricing Strategy
 Too expensive for local people
 (2) Regulation Risks by local competitor
 Censorship
 (3) Normal Local Competitor
 Local Advantage in language
 (4) Consumer demand
 Some countries people do not like subscribtion mode.
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題型001 – 實質選擇權
 傳統：NPV
 問題：忽略各種實質選擇權價值
 改進：實質選擇權

Real Option: Option to defer, Time to build option (staged investment),

Option to abandon
You are not sure whether the next year will boom or not. You could try
to invest a little bit to gain an option to grow it quickly if the market go
up next year.
NPV ignores the value of real option.
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Example

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解答
 請看手稿。

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Strategy in Classical Options

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Ex1 目標增加人數、手段開Program
 A university wants to increase its student numbers and decides to
develop a new degree programme to meet this objective. However, it
does not know the fallout of Brexit and changes to immigration rules.
It creates the new programme by cannibalizing the modules offered
in other existing programmes, and an additional (and new) core
module. It obtains clearance to offer four new optional modules but
does not actually put them on offer. Newspapers find out about this
and argue that students in the new degree programme are not
getting value for money. Does the university have any rational
defence for its actions?

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Ans1
好。因為面對不確定性，保留實質選擇權
 In the event of uncertainty, it makes economic sense for the
university to create real options – the new programme and the
approved modules – and proceed in a staged manner. The
cannibalization of existing programmes ensures that new or
additional resources (beyond what is needed by the one new module)
would not have to be deployed to launch the programme. Once the
uncertainties clear up, the programme can be pulled or quickly
expanded using the pre-approved modules. Can you think of a
“flexibility option” in this context?

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Neflix Q1
 Question 1: Neflix used limited time offer. What's its rationale?

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Neflix A1
 Real Option Value.
 Limit-time offer can gather the regional data without full investment.
If the market goes up, they could then fully invest in the region, while
the market goes down, they could give up without high losses.

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題型002- 資訊不對稱 代理問題
 原則：
 IC Constraint
 IR Constraint
 需要同時滿足 才Feasible。

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分離均衡邏輯

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Q2 資訊不對稱
 Suppose that the university wants you to work hard, perform well in
your exams etc, and put in a significant amount of effort to find highly
paid positions. If you do all this successfully, they will add to the
university’s MBA brand. The university cannot observe your efforts.
Has it entered into an explicit or implicit contract with you to ensure
that you will do what the university wants you to do? If so, how does
it induce you to do what it wants? If not, why not?

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A2
 Asymmetric information is associated with moral hazard problems. There
are two solutions to moral hazard: (a) you can monitor the “agent” which is
costly, and (b) you can give the agent a contract that is acceptable to
him/her and, at the same time, aligns his/her interests to those of the
“principal”. However, in this case, a contract may not be necessary because
it is anyhow in your interest to get good grades and find well-paid jobs. An
appropriate analogy is that of life insurance; in general, people do not kill
themselves or live dangerously simply because they have taken out a life
insurance and hence (aside from a clause about suicides etc) life insurance
contracts do not involve additional incentive-aligning mechanisms (such as
deductible or co-payment) that auto-, fire- and many other insurance
products have

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Q3
 The same university wants its alumni to help current and graduating
students find good placements and fulltime employment. Its
campaign argues that, as global “citizens” of the university, the alumni
have a moral obligation to extend a helping hand in this way. Will the
university’s attempt to bind the alumni into a social contract with
their alma mater work? Why, or why not?

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A3
 The university is the principal here, and the alumni are the agent. When a
principal offers a contract, it has to satisfy the “participation constraint”
and the “individual rationality constraints” of the agents. In this case, since
becoming a good citizen in principle may not be costly, and given that the
alumni may have a soft corner for the university anyhow, the participation
constraint may not matter. However, if an alumnus has to use his/her social
and network capital to help place a new graduate from the university, the
question is why would participating in the contract make them better off
than non-participation. If you believe that participation in the contract
would be a norm such that, at some point of time in the future, you can
benefit from it as well, it may be rational for you to help find placements
and jobs for fellow alumni. Otherwise, it may not be rational for you to do
so.

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Netflix2

 Read above passage. Why did you think Century Fox stop the
cooperation? Do you think it’s the optimal result of both parties? If
not, do you think a good contract will solve the conflict between 21st
Century Fox and Netflix ? Describe how.

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Read above passage. Why did you think Century Fox stop the coopration?

In the past, 21st Century Fox cooperates with Netflix as a content provider. From the Century Fox’s choice,
we assume that for the CF, the profit of working alone is better than that of working together. It is
possibly due to an imperfect contract that each other does not reach its incentive constraint and
individual rationality. For the Century Fox, selling the good content itself will bring greater fortune than
cooperating with Netflix, which dissatisfy its incentive constraint in a imperfect contract.
From the case, we know that the Netflix is an expert in the online stream, while the Century is good at
providing content, and because of the relative advantage, they are expected to be better-off if they have
a good cooperation, which could be realized by a well-designed contract.
An ideal contract might satisfy the following principal. First, Netflix could offer a flexible, option-like
contract that Century could receive a specific percentage from the overall sale of Netflix in that content.
This contract is designed to make sure the incentive constraint of Century holds, i.e. the profit of century
accepting is larger than that of rejecting. In addition, this contract will satisify the individual rationality.
That is, the profit of participation is positive and higher than Century’s other choices. These two
principles together ensures a good contract.
In this contract, the Netflix plays an role as an principal, and the Century is the agent. Through a well-
designed contract, it will reach the optimization since both party has incentive to keep the cooperation
(due to the incentive constraint) and no one has incentive to deviate. This contract constitute an
equilibrium.

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題型003- 逆選擇、道德風險
 善者不來、來者不善。
 以保險市場為例。

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Q4 A4逆選擇
 Is posting collateral a mechanism to overcome the adverse selection
problem, or the moral hazard problem, or both?
When a borrower posts a collateral, (s)he shares risk with the lender.
Before a loan is sanctioned, this is a signal that (s)he is confident of
repaying the money and is, by extension, a “good” borrower. After the
loan has been sanctioned, the collateral also aligns the interests of the
borrower and the lender: neither wants the former to default on the
loan. But this is the case only if the law of the land enables the lender
to make a credible threat to attach and liquidate the collateral, in the
event of default. In the absence of this credible threat, posting
collateral itself does not help address the moral hazard problem

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