Special methods

In
Marketing Research

Delphi technique Cohort Analysis

Panel Research Case method
 Delphi technique

Delphi Technique is a systematic, interactive forecasting

method which relies on experts and is controlled by a
Facilitator.

Why this Technique is used?

-- To Forecast
 Delphi technique

PANEL OF ANONYMOUS
FACILITATOR
EXPERTS

QUESTIONNAIRE
 Delphi technique

PANEL
QUESTIONNAIRE
DIRECTOR

VIEWS,
EXPERT OPINIONS

SHARES
VIEWS, FACILITATO
EXPERT WITH THE
OPINIONS R
EXPERTS

VIEWS,
EXPERT OPINIONS
 Delphi technique

Key characteristics
Structuring of information flow
Regular feedback
Anonymity of the participants
 Advantages of Delphi technique

• Is conducted in writing and does not require face-to-face meetings:

-convenient responses

 Repetition enables participants to review, re-evaluate and revise all their

previous statements in light of comments made by their peers;

• Is Inexpensive
 Disadvantages of Delphi technique

• Information comes from a selected group of people and may

not be representative

• Tendency to eliminate extreme positions and force a middle-

of-the-road consensus;

• More time-consuming than group process methods

• Requires skill in written communication;

• Requires adequate time and participant commitment.

Panel Research
 What is Panel Research?
 A group of pre-screened respondents who have
shown interest in surveys and customer
questionnaires.
 Also known as customer advisory panel or
proprietary panel.
 Customers are called panelists by filling in profiling
questionnaires.
 Questions regarding the demographics, media habits
and lifestyle.
 Panels can be either online or offline.
 Panels can range from 100 to 10000 or more people.
Classification of panels

panels

offline online
Online Panels
 Effective way of conducting Internet research where
groups agree to take surveys and exchange views.
 Collected information helps in developing business
solutions.
 Provides anonymity and convenience to the
customers.
 Quality is determined by recruitment, maintenance
and response rate standards.
 Recruitment can be active or passive.
 In maintenance, existing members are replaced by
new members.
Offline panels
 Consumer panels

A group of individuals that have agreed to

provide information to a researcher over a
period of time

Two Types of Consumer Panels

-Diary Panels
-Media Panels
Continued..
 Retail Scanner panels

Retail panel consists of samples of retail

outlets which use electronic scanner
systems to scan barcodes on products.
Data from checkout scanner tapes are
collected to record sales & other details for
various products.

Two types of scanner data are available :

- Volume Tracking
- Scanner panels
Advantages of Panel Interviews
 Useful in answering questions about dynamics
of change.
 Helpful in predicting long term or cumulative
effects.
 Low cost as compared to other primary data
collection methods.
 Rapid availability of brand switching and shifts in
buyer preferences.
 Providing incentives to the panel motivates them
and yet is helpful in getting accurate results.
Disadvantages of Panels
 Possibility of selection bias which
distorts the results.
 Mortality effect.
 Testing effect.
 Response bias and problem of internal
validity.
 Risk of professional respondents.
Nissan uses Panel Research
 Launched the Leaf Online Research Panel
for inviting public participation.
 The panel would take part in the surveys
conducted over a period of time.
 Nissan has sent approval notices to some
people who qualify for free charger
notification.
 This is a very strong motivation to participate
in the discussion.
Case study methodology

CASE STUDY
METHODOLOGY

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 What is case study?
 Case studies emphasize detailed
contextual analysis of a limited
number of events
 Case study is an empirical inquiry that
investigates a contemporary
phenomenon within its real-life context;

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 How to use case study method?

Six steps:
1. Determine and define the research questions
2. Select the cases and determine data gathering
and analysis techniques
3. Prepare to collect the data
4. Collect data in the field
5. Evaluate and analyze the data
6. Prepare the report

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 ADVANTAGES
 A case study is an in-depth study as compared
to studies with many observations.
 Usually answers one or more questions which
begin with "how" or "why."
 To conduct a literature review to assist in
defining the research questions.
 To find out what has already been done by
literature review

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 How to select case study objects?
 Carefully select cases increase the
validity of the study.
 Decide whether to study cases which
are unique in some way, or
 Cases which are considered typical and
may also select cases to represent a
variety of geographic regions, a variety
of sizes, etc.

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 Stay focused is important!
 One way to stay focused is to
repeatedly refer back to the purpose of
the study in order to focus attention on
where to look for cases and evidence
that will satisfy the purpose of the study
 Data gathered is normally largely
qualitative, but it may also be
quantitative.

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 Stay focused is important!
 Launched the Leaf Online Research Panel
for inviting public participation.
 The panel would take part in the surveys
conducted over a period of time.
 Nissan has sent approval notices to some
people who qualify for free charger
notification.
 This is a very strong motivation to participate
in the discussion.
Cohort study and analysis
 Introduction
 A cohort can be defined as an aggregate of
individuals who experienced the same
events within the same time interval (Ryder
1965), and who are usually connected by
birth timing.
 Cohort analysis is a method designed to
separate age, period, and cohort effects in
order to examine consumer behaviours
(Rentz et al. 1983).
 Introduction
 Age, period, and cohort share a linear relationship,
that is, age equals period minus cohort.
 For example, it is natural to consider that
consumer behaviours of teenagers in the 2000s are
considerably different from those in the 1960s in
light of new electronic and web-based
communications and technology. Thus, the
consideration of not only the age effect but also
the cohort effect is important for marketing
research.
An example of cohort data

Age/Period 1960 1970 1980 1990

30–39 Y11(3) Y12(4) Y13(5) Y14(6)

40–49 Y21(2) Y22(3) Y23(4) Y24(5)

50–59 Y31(1) Y32(2) Y33(3) Y34(4)

Yij(k) denotes data for i-th age group, j-th period, and k-th
cohort
 In this case, the range for the age group and
the interval for the survey period are both 10
years. The birth year of the first cohort is
1901–10, and the figure for the year 1960
and the age 30–39 is denoted by Y11(3)
showing the third cohort.
 An Example
 The analysis seek to perform age–period–cohort
decomposition of cohort data on consumer behaviours. In
order to accomplish this, household vehicle expenditure
ratio (henceforth, HVER), which is defined as the ratio of
vehicle expenditure to total expenditure, was selected.
 Further, the present analysis also aims to compare U.S. and
Japanese households in terms of HVER.
 Vehicle expenditure is defined as private transportation
expenditure composed of expenditure on purchasing
transport equipment, such as automobiles and motorcycles,
as well as disbursements on the goods and services
required for vehicle maintenance and utilization.
 Objective
 It is intriguing to examine the relative importance
of age, period, and cohort effect. After
performing the age–period–cohort
decomposition, the necessity of addressing the
following interesting questions becomes evident.
 Of these three effects, which is the most
influential?
 To what extent does the HVER age profile of the
U.S. differ from that of Japan?
 To what extent do the period and cohort effects
differ in these two countries?
 Data
 US
 Period: 1984 to 2004
 Age group range: 15-24, 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64, 65–74, 25–
34, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64, 65–74
 Birth cohort: 1904, 1924, 1944, 1964 & 1984.

 JAPAN
 Period: 1984 to 2004
 Age group range: 20–24, 25–29, 30–34, 35–39, 40–44, 45–49, 50–
54, 55–59, 60–64 and 65–69
 Birth cohort: 1917, 1937, 1957 & 1977.
US Results
 Analysis..
 The age effect decreases for the 20–40 age
groups, increases in the 50-year-old age group,
slightly decreases for the 60–70 age groups,
and finally considerably decreases in the 80-
year-old age group.
 The fluctuations of the period effect show a
roughly downward trend for 1984–1991, but no
clear trend for 1992–2004.
 The cohort effect increases monotonically for
the birth cohorts of 1904–1974 and next
decreases.
Japanese Results
Analysis..
 The age effect decreases for the 22–47 age
groups, increases for the 47–57 age groups, and
next decreases. The bottom of the age effect is
detected at 47, and the peak is detected at 57.
The age effect at 57 is considerably smaller than
the age effect at 22.
 Considering the magnitude of the standard error,
the fluctuations of the period effect are negligible.
 The cohort effect increases monotonically for the
birth cohorts of 1917–1972 and next decreases.
 Two country comparisons
 First, in both countries, the period effect is the smallest. This
means that given age and cohort effects, the HVER is stable
in every year. This is possibly because the data sample
starts from 1984 and the motorization has matured since
then.
 Second, in both countries, except for the latest birth cohort,
the cohort effect shows a clear upward trend. A possible
reason is that older cohorts have less access to productivity-
enhancing opportunities than younger cohorts. The cohort
effect is so large as to shift up the age profile. This means
that given the age group, younger generations expend more
than older generations. Finally, the considerable decline of
the latest cohort effect is detected, particularly in the U.S.
 Third, the fluctuations of the age effect are
similar for both countries; the age effect
decreases in the 20s and 30s, and next
increases with the peak detected in the late 50s,
and finally decreases. The reason of the
decreases in the 20s and 30s is that the
increase in total expenditure is more drastic
than that in vehicle expenditure.
 Furthermore, the peak of the late 50s
corresponds to the fact that the number of
family members is the largest in this age group.
 Inference
 The BC(Bayesian cohort) model provided the
following three interesting findings, which are
common to both countries:
(1) The period effect is the smallest among the
three effects
(2) Except for the latest birth cohort, the cohort
effect shows a clear upward trend and is large
enough to shift up the age profile
(3) The age effect decreases in the age range of
the 20s and 30s, then increases with the peak
detected in the late 50s, and finally decreases.
 Cohort analysis is expected to be a useful marketing
research tool for the two areas of market
segmentation and forecasting market trends.
1) Market segmentation: Cohort effects are lifelong
effects. They provide the communality for each
cohort being targeted as a separate market segment.
Cohort segmentation is particularly appropriate for
food, music, apparel, automotive, financial, and
insurance products as well as for entertainment
products.
2) Forecasting: Cohort analysis is a useful tool for
forecasting marketing trends.
 Thank You
NIRAV DHOLABHAI MIHIR BATHIA
TANVI MATHUR SHIVIKA NAGRATH
PRIYANK UNIYAL ROHINI PARMAR