Why VUCA

What is VUCA
How to identify
How to measure
How to explain
How to develop solutions
How to identify, anticipate and how to use the concept
When to uti;lize, where is it applicable, how a problem is identified VUCA

Tips and tools for creating and presenting wide format slides
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kresnayana yahya, digital learning 2018, STIKOM

 What and where is the source of?
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 Volatility
 Uncertainty

 Complexity

 Ambiguity

kresnayana yahya, digital learning

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kresnayana yahya, digital learning 2018, STIKOM

 L’histoire se répète?
5

 Migration – There have been migration flows before. In the 5th and 6th century AD
Europe was shifting and entire peoples moved. These events still resonate in names,
relics, language. You can read about migration here.
 Wars – There have been wars in Europe. As a matter of fact we are in the longest
period without war. You can see an interactive map of conflicts here.
 Isolationism and Nationalism – There have been leaders who proclaimed isolationist
views before. There have been emperors, dictators, … far worse than the Trumps of
today.
 Climate Change – Climate is volatile. There were even periods with a (limited)
climate change. For a history of the current climate change you can check this BBC-
page.
kresnayana yahya, digital learning 2018, STIKOM
 VUCA is Both Reality and Perception
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 What is perception?
 Is perception real?
 Can reality be percieve as perception?
 What and why perception will/can mislead to
reality
 When Vuca is real? When is it perception?
kresnayana yahya, digital learning 2018, STIKOM
 HR Research Securex

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NO!
Technology has changed

The world of work has changed

Societal norms have changed

Psychological insights have changed

 Our VUCA World

Technology :creation Energy: need for Migration :

of worldwide sustainability,new people work in
infrastructure and energy foreign
virtual team work. countries
Communication is
Societal change Innovation :
mobile !
:relationships,mea increasing
Globalisation : ning of work ,more frequency of
mutinationals with generations at changes as a
HQ’s worldwide work competitive
advantage
Demography: “silvering” or Digital: unlimited acces to
greying workforce,life knowledge & information
expectancy going up all the
time…

Speaking up Mobility : traffic Economy: activity

civilians/clients jams,travelling shift and labour
Indignados, times going up & market turbulence
Protest against… unpredictable…
9 Gratton, 2011
SUSTAINABLE WORK
21/11/2018 WERK EN W ERKEN IN DE TOEKOMST
Price of function is droping, and
price of meaning rising
image design "healthy"
"home
trade mark
price of meaning made" “fair”
marketing trusted
environmental
y
friendly who can think
of it

who can
sell it
who is
price of funcion 1 EUR 30 EUR willing to
 https://blog.v-comply.com/vuca/
 http://www.strategicagilityinstitute.com/blog/2
017/8/3/is-your-vuca-external-or-internal
What is Volatility ?
 Is it time dependent?
 Is it eratic?
 What are the indicators?
 How do you identify?
 Is there an Early warning system ( detector)
 How to measure?
WhAT IS UNCERTAINTY
 Why it happens?
 Where it happens
 How it happens
 How to identify?
 Is there an indicator that uncertainty is taken place?
 How do you identify?
What is Complexity
 Where and when there will be complexity?
 How do you know that a problem is complex>’
 Basic argument why it is complex?
 What are the tools to identify that it is complex?
 How complexity can be approach
 Do you know that complexity is real?
What is Ambiguity?
 Why it happens?
 How it happens
 Is it because of unclear concept?
 Is it because too many definition? Concepts and
poor derivation?
Is it a measurement problem?
 Apakah semua persoalan VUCA itu berakhir dan
atau berawal dari measurement problem?
 Mengapa begitu banyak measurement
berkembang dengan arahan speed, simplicity,
quality, reliability, validity dan sustainability?
 Jelaskan mengapa scale of measurement itu
membedakan : nominal, ordinal, interval dan ratio?
How and what is the role of statistics?
 Reducing uncertainty? Example?
 Controlling uncertainty
 Reducing variation? How?
 Simplifying ? Relating?
 MINImizing uncertainty? Minimizing variation?
Bisnis utama Statistics: relationship
 Cause – Effect
 Correlations ( linear)
 Associations ( dependent – Independent )

 Mengapa begitu banyak methode untuk

menjelaskan basic three Relations?
Tugas perorangan
 Setiap orang berusaha menjawab dan mengulas
gagasan VUCA dengan sudut pandang dan cara
menyatakannya secara mandiri
 Tugas saudara menyusun materi penjelas dan
mempertegas: APA VUCA itu kapan terjadinya dan
bagaimana melakukan identifikasinya. Kemudian
saudara diminat menunjuklkan apa saja realita yang
terjadi dan apa saja cara mengidentifikasi dan cara
memberi tahu, menjelaskan pada Client awam
Mengapa berkembang methode
 Ada banyak methode yang berkembang dan makin canggih
mengurai hal yang tidak dan belum tger jelaskan sebelumnya
 Bagaimana membedakan itu Time series, neural network, sebuah
stochastic process atau sebuah spectral analysis, misalnya
 Selama dapat dikembangkan beragam methode dan
memodelkannya maka sisi resiko, error structure dan atau lost model
nya dapat dijadikan acuan untuk men justifikasi kelayakan
modelnya
Susun dalam sebuah tulisan : analisis
 Saudara uraikan dengan memberikan uraian bagaimana itu terjadi
dan mengapa itu penting dan masih akan terjadi di masa depan
 Mana saja yang terus dan akan jadi kekuatan analisa statistik untuk
menyajikan pemecahan problem dan bagaimana mengembangkan
cara/ alat dan konsep identifikasi, antisipasi dan solusi?
 Analisa nya maksimum 20 hal;aman ketik doc file
 Dan disajikan dalam ppt maksimum 7 slides, dengan penjelasan dan
ilustrasi
Satu laporan setiap orang
 Gunakan landasan yang valid dengan
menyebutkan reference, quotation, case dan sumber
saudara mengutip dan atau pendapat cerdas
ilmiah seseorang
 Sajikan ilustrasi nyata dan kaitkan dengan apa
saja yang sudah saudara pelajari atau kerjakan
selama ini
Sajikan dalam maximum 10 slides saja
 Bagian untuk presentasi: sajikan maximum dalam
10 slides apa saja pendapat, temuan, pem ahaman
saudara tentang VUCA ini sebagai kekuatan untuk
meyakinkan mengapa harus dan layak belajar dan
mengajarkan statistik pada mereka yang punya
problem pemecahan masalah yang saudara
perkirakan layak menggunakan analisa statistik