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Kuliah 8 Hidrologi - 2017
Kuliah 8 Hidrologi - 2017
Kuliah 8 Hidrologi - 2017
Analisis Frekuensi
FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
• Basic Problem:
To relate the magnitude of extreme events to
their frequency of occurrence through the use
of probability distributions.
FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
• Practical Problems:
(a) Selection of reasonable & simple distribution.
(b) Estimation of parameters in distribution.
(c) Assessment of risk with reasonable accuracy.
REVIEW OF BASIC CONCEPTS
Probabilistic
Outcome of a hydrologic event (e.g., rainfall amount & duration; flood
peak discharge; wave height, etc.) is random and cannot be predicted with
certainty.
Terminologies
- Population
The collection of all possible outcomes relevant to the process of
interest. Example:
(1) Max. 2-hr rainfall depth: all non-negative real numbers;
(2) No. of storm in June: all non-negative integer numbers.
- Sample
A measured segment (or subset) of the population.
REVIEW OF BASIC CONCEPTS
Terminologies
- Random Variable
A variable describable by a probability distribution which
specifies the chance that the variable will assume a particular
value.
Convention: Capital letter for random variables (say, X)
whereas the lower case letter (say, x) for numerical realization
that the random variable X will take.
Example:
X = rainfall amount in 2 hours (a random variable) ;
x = 100.2 mm/2hr (realization).
- Random variables can be
- discrete (eg., no. of rainy days in June) or
- continuous (eg., max. 2-hr rainfall amount, flood discharge)..
REVIEW OF BASIC CONCEPTS
Terminologies
Frequency & Relative Frequency
o For discrete random variables:
o Frequency is the number of occurrences of a specific event. Relative frequency
is resulting from dividing frequency by the total number of events. e.g.
n = no. of years having exactly 50 rainy days; N = total no. of years.
Let n=10 years and N=100 years. Then, the frequency of having
exactly 50 rainy days is 10 and the relative frequency of having
exactly 50 rainy days in 100 years is n/N = 0.1.
o For continuous random variables:
o Frequency needs to be defined for a class interval.
o A plot of frequency or relative frequency versus class intervals is called
histogram or probability polygon.
o As the number of sample gets infinitely large and class interval length
approaches to zero, the histogram will become a smooth curve, called
probability density function.
REVIEW OF BASIC CONCEPTS
Terminologies
Probability Density Function (PDF) –
-
f ( x) dx 1
p ( x) 1
all x
Pr( X x o) =
all xi xo
p( xi )
Statistical Properties of Random Variables
• Population - Synonymous to sample space, which describes
the complete assemblage of all the values representative of a
particular random process.
• Sample - Any subset of the population.
• Parameters - Quantities that are descriptive of the population
in a statistical model. Normally, Greek letters are used to
denote statistical parameters.
• Sample statistics (or simply statistics): Quantities calculated on
the basis of sample observations.
Mean, Mode, Median, and Quantiles
• Expectation (1st-order moment) measures central tendency of random variable X
E X = μx = x f x dx = x dF x = 1 - F x dx
x x x
- - -
– Mean (m) = Expectation = l1 = location of the centroid of PDF or PMF.
– Two operational properties of the expectation are useful:
• K K
E ak X k = a k m k
k=1
k=1
Fx xmd = f x dx = 0.5
x
-
fx(x)
μ x - x mo
g1 =
• In practice, product-moments
sx higher than 3rd-order are less
used because they are unreliable and inaccurate when
estimated from a small number of samples
• See Table for equations to compute the sample product-
moments.
Relative locations of mean, median, and mode for
positively-skewed, symmetric, and negatively-skewed
distributions.
fx(x)
fx(x)
(a) Positively Skewed, gx>0
(b) Symmetric, gx=0
x x
xmo xmd mx mxxmo=xmd
fx(x)
x
mx xmd xmo
Kurtosis (kx)
• Measure of the peakedness of a distribution.
• Related to the 4th central product-moment as
E X - μx 4
μ4
kx = 2 =
μ2 s x4
• For a normal RV, its kurtosis is equal to 3. Sometimes,
coefficient of excess, ex=kx-3, is used.
• All feasible distribution functions, skewness coefficient and
kurtosis must satisfy
g x2 1 k x
Some Commonly Used Distributions
• NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
1 2
f N x | mx, s 2
x = 1
exp -
2
x - μx
σ
, for - < x <
2π s x x
Standardized Variable:
X -m
Z
s
0.5
0.4
(z ) 0.3
0.2
0.1
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
z
Some Commonly Used Distributions
• LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
1 ln( x) - m 2
f LN x | m ln x , s ln2 x =
1
exp - ln x
,x>0
2 s ln x x 2 s ln x
1.6
(a) mx = 1.0
1.4
1.2 Wx=0.
1.0 3
fLN(x) 0.8
0.6 Wx=0.
0.4 6 Wx=1.3
0.2
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
x 0.7
0.6 mx =1.65
(b) Wx = 1.30
0.5
0.4
fLN(x) mx =2.25
0.3
0.2 mx =4.50
0.1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
x
Some Commonly Used Distributions
• Gumbel (Extreme-Value Type I) Distribution
x -
1 x -
x -
F EV 1 x | , = exp - exp - for maxima
f EV 1 x | , = exp - - exp -
for maxima
x - ξ 1 x - x -
= 1 - exp - exp + for minima = exp + - exp + for minima
β
fEV1(y)
0.4
Max
Min
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
y
Some Commonly Used Distributions
• Log-Pearson Type 3 Distribution
α -1
x-ξ
f P 3 x | , , =
1 - x - /
e
β Γ β
0.30
4,1
0.25
1,4
0.20
fG(x) 0.15
2,4
0.10
0.05
0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
x
Some Commonly Used Distributions
• Log-Pearson Type 3 Distribution
ln x - ξ
α -1
f LP 3 x | , , =
1 - ln( x ) - /
e
x β Γ β
with >0, xe when >0 and with >0, xe when <0
Exercise
• Diketahui Curah Hujan Harian Maksimum sbb
Tahun Sta Margasari Sta Dukuh Waringin Sta Kalibakung
1 147 150 140
2 105 124 110
3 84 109 202
4 91 92 100
5 87 253 125
6 93 215 125
7 112 155 155
8 130 163 101
9 116 177 107
10 97 157 100
11 106 57 127
12 95 98 106
13 130 59 129
14 84 59 125
• 1. Tentukan CH15Wilayah dengan
172 metode Aritmatik
147 180
• 2. Tentukan CH Rata2, Standar Deviasi, Koef Skewness dan Koef Kurtosis, Koef Variasi