California Housing Market

Update

Monthly Sales and Price Statistics

November 2018
 Home Sales: Largest Decline Since 2014
California, November 2018 Sales: 381,400 Units, -4.6% YTD, -13.4% YTY
700,000

600,000
Nov-17: Nov-18:
440,340 381,400
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 CA Home Sales: Declining Trend
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Bay Area Sales: Double-Digit Decline
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
30%

20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10%

-20% -11.5%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 So CA Home Sales Off Double-Digits
YoY % chg. So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%
-10.3%
-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Central Valley Sales: Declining Trend
YoY % chg. Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
30%

20%

10%

-2.7%
0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Sales Declined in All Price Segments
November 2018 (Year-to-Year)
0%

-5%

-6.5% -6.4%
-10% -8.0%
-9.1% -10.5%
-11.7%
-15% -13.1%

-20%

-21.9%
-25%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 YTY Home Price Gains Moderating
California, November 2018: $554,760, -3.0% MTM, +1.5% YTY
Nov-18:
P:May-07
$700,000 $554,760
$594,530 Nov-17:
$546,820
$600,000

$500,000
T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Prices Growth Slowing
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Condo/Townhome Median Price Leveling Off
$600,000 Condo

$500,000

$400,000
Median Price

Nov-18:
Nov-17:
$465,770
$300,000 $451,250

$200,000

$100,000

$0 Mar-09

Mar-14
Jan-05

Jan-10

Jan-15
Dec-07

Jul-12
Dec-12

Dec-17
Jun-05

Sep-06

Jun-10

Sep-11

Jun-15

Sep-16
Nov-05

Jul-07

May-08
Oct-08

Nov-10

May-13
Oct-13

Nov-15

Jul-17

May-18
Oct-18
Apr-06

Aug-09

Apr-11

Feb-12

Aug-14

Apr-16
Feb-07

Feb-17
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 CA Median Price Monthly Change
Month-to-Month % Chg
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Evidence of Softening Prices at Upper – End
California Year-Over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (November 2018)
2.5% 2.2%
2.0%

1.5% 1.4%

1.0% 0.8%

0.5%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0%

-0.5%
-0.5% -0.5%
-1.0% -0.7%

-1.5%

-2.0%

-2.5% -2.3%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Quintile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 List Price Suggests a Bounce Back in Sales
Price Growth in the Near Term
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
Sales Price Growth Lags List Price Growth by 4-6 months
60%

40%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%
4.7%

0%
0.2%
-20%

-40%

-60%
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18
May-11

May-13
Sep-12
May-09
Sep-09

May-10
Sep-10

Sep-11

May-12

Sep-13

May-14
Sep-14

May-15
Sep-15

May-16
Sep-16

May-17
Sep-17

May-18
Sep-18
Listing Price Sales Price
SERIES: Sales Price Growth and List Price Growth of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 42.5% Listings Have Price Reductions
Share of Listings with Price Reduction: 42.5%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.4%
California Reduced-Price Listings 42.5%
50% 10%
45% 9%
40% 8%
35% 7%
30% 6%
25% 5%
20% 4%
15% 4.4% 3%
10% 2%
5% 1%
0% 0%

10/1/2014
4/1/2010

10/1/2010

10/1/2011

7/1/2012
10/1/2012

10/1/2013

10/1/2015

10/1/2016
1/1/2017

10/1/2017

10/1/2018
1/1/2010

7/1/2010

1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011

1/1/2012
4/1/2012

1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013

1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014

1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015

1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016

4/1/2017
7/1/2017

1/1/2018
4/1/2018
7/1/2018
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price Per Square Flat MTM
November 2018: $282, Down 0.0% MTM, Up 1.8% YTY
$400
Nov-18:
$350 Nov-17: $282
$277
$300
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Sales-to-List Price Ratio Dropping
November 2018: 97.9%, -0.2% MTM, -1.0% YTY
Nov-17:
Nov-18:
98.9%
97.9%
100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Biggest Drop at High – End
California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile
100.5%

100.0% 99.8% 99.9%

99.5% 99.4% 99.3%

99.2% 99.0% 99.1%
99.0% 99.0%

98.5%
97.9%
98.0%

97.5%

97.0%

96.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100

Nov-17 Nov-18
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Time on Market Up as the Market Slows
November 2018: 28.0 Days
80

70

60
DAYS ON MARKET

50

40

30

20

10

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Median Time on Market by Percentile
California Median Time on Market by Quintile
30
28 28 28
27 27
25
25 24
23 23 23
22
21 21 21
20
18 18
17 17

15

10

0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Nov-17 Nov-18
SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index on the Rise
November 2017: 2.9 Months; November 2018: 3.7 Months
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Up 8th Consecutive Month
Year-over-Year % Chg
35% 31.0%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Listings Up Across the Board,
Except Under $200K
Nov 2018
Active Listings
60%
52.6%
50%
40.4%
40% 36.3%
29.1% 31.0%
30%
18.8%
20%
9.7%
10%
0%
-10% -4.7%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Growing as Sales Fall
9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0 4.2

3.0 2.9
2.0 2.3

1.0

0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Increased in All Regions

Nov-17 Nov-18
35,000 33,033

30,000

25,000
22,489
Active Listings

20,000

15,000
11,119
10,000 9,063
6,288
5,000 3,702 2,542
2,207

0
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Increased in All Regions
Nov 2018

Sales Active Listings

80%
70%
70%
60%
Year-to-Year % Chg

50% 47%

40%
30%
23%
20% 15%
10%
0%
-10% -3% -3%
-12% -10%
-20%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index Highest at Upper End
California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment
12

9.8
10
8.7
8

6 5.5
4.2 4.4
3.8 4.0 3.7
4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.6
3.2 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.2 2.8
2.7 2.6 2.7
2.4
2

Nov-17 Nov-18
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 56,126 Listings in Nov vs. 42,841 Last Year
California Active Listings by Month
70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

2017 2018