Biofuels Development

Status and Potentials in

Major Countries

Michael Wang

Center for Transportation Research

Argonne National Laboratory

Oct. 10, 2006

A Complete, Robust Way Of Evaluating A Fuel’s Effects Is
To Compare the Fuel With Those To Be Displaced

2
 Accurate Ethanol Energy Analysis Must Account
for Increased Productivity in Farming Over Time
0.65
?
0.60
U.S. Corn Output Per Pound of Fertilizer
0.55 Has Risen by 70% in The Past 35 Years Precision
farming, etc.?
Bushels/lb. Fertilizer

0.50

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Based on historical USDA data; results are 3-year moving averages

3
Improved Technology Has Reduced Energy Use and
Operating Costs in Corn Ethanol Plants

70,000 1980s
60,000 2000s

50,000
Btu/Gallon

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
Wet Mill Dry Mill

From Argonne’s discussions with ethanol plant designers, USDA data, and other reported data

4
The Type of Energy, As Well As the Amount of
Energy, Is important in Addressing Energy Effects of
Ethanol
Btu required for 1 Btu available at fuel pump
3
From Biomass
From Coal and Natural Gas
2.5 From Petroleum

1.5 Fossil Btu = 1.23

Energy
1 in the
Petroleum Btu = 1.1 Fossil Btu = 0.74 Fuel
Fossil Btu < 0.1
0.5
Petroleum Btu = 0.1 Petroleum Btu = 0.1

0
Gasoline Corn Ethanol Cellulosic Ethanol

5
 Most Recent Studies Show Positive Net
Energy Balance for Corn Ethanol
60,000

NR Canada
40,000 Shapouri et al.
Agri. Canada
Lorenz&Morris
Wang
Wang et al.
20,000 Kim &Dale Kim &Dale
Marland&Turhollow Graboski Delucchi
Shapouri et al.
Net Energy Value (Btu/gallon)

0 Ho

Weinblatt et al. Keeney&DeLuca Pim entel

-20,000
Pim entel Pim entel Pim entel
&Patzek
-40,000

-60,000 Patzek

-80,000
Cham bers et al.

-100,000

-120,000
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Energy balance here is defined as Btu content a gallon of ethanol minus fossil energy used to produce a gallon of ethanol

6
 Though Electricity Requires a Large Amount of
Fossil Energy Input, There Is No Substitute
NG Uranium
Coal Petroleum
Uranium Ore Diesel Fuel
Petroleum
Diesel Fuel NG NG LPG, Recovery Electricity
Coal Mining Recovery
Electricity Recovery NGLs NG

Residual Oil
NG NG Diesel Petroleum
Uranium Ore NG
Electricity Processing Fuel Transportation
Transportation Electricity

Coal Diesel
Transportation Fuel
Refinery Gas Other
NG Petroleum Petroleum
NG NG Uranium Refinery Products
Coal
Electricity Transmission Enrichment Electricity

Residual Oil
Residual Oil
Uranium Fuel Diesel Fuel
NG Transportation
Transportation
Electricity

Electricity Generation

Electricity Transmission U.S. Electricity Generation:

and Distribution (8% loss) 2.34 mm Btu Fossil Energy Input

1 mm Btu of Electricity
at Wall Outlets

7
Energy in Different Fuels
Can Have Very Different Qualities

Fossil Energy Ratio (FER) =

energy in fuel/fossil energy input
10.31

2.0

1.5

1.0

1.36

0.5 0.98
0.81

0.45

0.0
Cell. EtOH Corn EtOH Coal Gasoline Electricity

8
The Role of Biofuels Is Affected by Land
Availability and Oil Use in Individual Countries
Country Land Population, Arable Land, Arable Land Oil Use, mil.
Area,103 Million 103 km2 km2 barrels a
km2 per 103 people day
USA 9,161 296 1,752 5.92 20.0
China 9,326 1,306 1,436 1.10 6.3
Japan 374 127 46 0.36 5.6
Germany 349 82 118 1.44 2.7
India 2,973 1,080 1,617 1.50 2.3
Canada 9,093 32 451 14.09 2.2
Brazil 8,457 186 588 3.16 2.1
France 545 60 183 3.05 2.1
The U.K. 241 60 57 0.95 1.7
Spain 499 40 130 3.25 1.5
Thailand 511 65 150 2.31 0.9
Australia 7,617 20 499 24.95 0.8
Pakistan 778 162 216 1.33 0.4
Sweden 410 9 27 3.00 0.4
9
Intermediate Products Can Be Produced from
Various Feedstocks via Various Technologies

10
Bio-Fuels Can Be Produced from Intermediate
Products with Various Technologies

11
Feedstocks for Biofuel Production Vary
Among Countries
 Grain starch to ethanol
– Corn in U.S., China, Canada
– Wheat in Europe, Australia, and Canada
 Sugar crops to ethanol
– Sugarcane in Brazil, India, and Thailand
– Sugar beets in Europe
 Cellulosic biomass to ethanol
– Managed biomass such as trees and grass
– Crop residues such as corn stover, wheat straw, rice straw, sugarcane
bagasse
– Forest wastes
– Municipal solid waste
 Oilseed crops to biodiesel
– Soybeans in U.S.
– Rapeseeds in Europe
– Palm oil and other tropical oilseed crops in tropical countries
– Waste cooking oil
– Animal fats
12
Liquid Biofuels Can Be Used in Vehicles
at Low- or High-Level Blends
 Low-level blends of ethanol/gasoline can be used in gasoline
vehicles without vehicle modifications
– E5 in Canada and Australia
– E3 in Japan
– E6-E10 in U.S.
– E10 in China and Thailand
– E25 in Brazil
 Low-level and high-level blends of biodiesel/diesel can be
used in diesel vehicles without vehicle modifications
– B2-B20 in different countries
– B100 could be used
 Flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs) for E0-E85 require vehicle
modifications
13
 U.S. Corn Ethanol:
No.1 Ethanol Consumption Country
with 4.2 billion gallons in 2005

14
 U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production Has Experienced
Large Increases, and the Trend Will Continue

8000
2005 Energy Bill
Actual Use requirement
7000

6000
Millions of gallons/Year

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
15
A Large Number of E85 FFVs Are in U.S. Fleet
– Obtain fuel economy credits since 1993
– >5 million cars and trucks in use in 2005
– But they are powered virtually with gasoline

2004 U.S. Fleet Alternative Fuels

Vehicles

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0
LPG CNG LNG M85 E85
Fuel

16
 General Motors Corporation’s E85 FFV
Vehicle Production for U.S.
GM E85 FFV Vehicle Production
600
Approx. 1.5 Million E85 FFV Trucks Forecasted E85 production includes
produced through 2005 MY Forecast Production
2.2 Million more cars and trucks

Trucks Cars

Approx. 1,500,000
500

E85 FFV Trucks

400
produced through
Volume in Thousands

2005 MY

300

200

100

Approximately 3.7 Million E85 FFV Cars and Trucks produced through 2010 MY

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Model Year

17
Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol:
No.2 Ethanol Consumption Country
with ~4 Billion Gallons in 2005

18
Brazil Is the Largest Sugarcane Producing
Country

Humid equatorial
Dry winter/humid summer tropical
Semi-arid tropical
Humid coastal
Humid subtropical
19
 Brazil Has the Lowest Production Cost
for Sugar
1400

Sugar Production Cost

Estimated Cost (US$/Ton in Dec/00) 687

483
440 424
Sugar Cane 378
283 284
241 248
174 204

100
Brazil Australia South India Cuba Thailand France USA China England Italy Japan
(CS) Africa

Production
22,7 5,4 2, 19,0 2,3 6,6 5, 7,3 10,3 1,5 1,5 0,
(Mt) 2002 6 1 9

Production costs in Brazil reached 100 US$/ton in 2005

From Rainach (2006)

20
 Brazil’s Low Sugar Production Cost Is
Due to a Combination of Factors
Cuba India Australia Brazil
cost (US$/Ton) 283 248 204 100

WATER

LIGHT - TEMPERATURE

USABLE LAND

LABOR COST

SCALE OF PRODUCTION

GENETICS

AGRICULTURAL
TECHNOLOGY

STRONG WEAK

From Rainach (2006) 21

Brazil Now Uses About 4 Billion Gallons
of Sugarcane Ethanol A Year

22
 Yield of EtOH/Ha Has Increased Three Times in the
Last 25 Years to 6,000 L/Ha (1,585 gal/Ha)

l/ha Rendimento Agroindustrial – Brasil

(em litros de álcool hidratado equivalente por hectare)
6500
6000
5931
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
+3,77% aa em 29 anos
2000 2024

1500
75
77

79
81

83

85
87

89
91

93

95
97

99
01

03
19
19

19
19

19

19
19

19
19

19

19
19

19
20

20
Fonte: Datagro
08 Nov 2005 Nastari / Datagro @ Proálcool 30 anos 11

From Rainach (2006) 23

 Ethanol Cost Has Been Reduced Greatly; It Is
Now Lower Than That of Gasoline

100
(2004) US$ / GJ

1980 2004
1986
10

1990

2002
1995 1999

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

Produção acumulada de etanol (milhares de m3 )

Preço do etanol no Brasil Preço da gasolina em Rotterdam

Goldenberg, 2005 24
 In Brazil, 70% of All New Cars Sold
Now Are FFVs
100%
3%

26%
80%

2%
60%

40%

69%
20%

0%
jan/03 abr/03 jul/03 out/03 jan/04 abr/04 jul/04 out/04 jan/05 abr/05 jul/05 out/05

Flex (Ethanol or gasoline) Ethanol (Pure) Gasoline Diesel

25
 Chinese Corn Ethanol:
No.3 Ethanol Consumption Country
with ~340 Million Gallons in 2005

26
 Four Fuel Ethanol Plants in China Produce 340
Million Gallons of EtOH a Year from Grains

Company Location Annual

Production in
tonnes

Jilin Fuel Ethanol Co., Ltd Jilin City, Jilin Province 300,000

Heilongjiang China Resources Zhaodong City,

100,000
Corporation Heilongjiang Province

Nanyang City, Henan

Henan Tianguan Group 300,000
Provice

Bufeng City, Anhui

Anhui BBCA Biochemical 320,000
Province

27
Supply of Grain-Based Ethanol in the U.S.
and China May Be Limited

U.S. China
Population (in million) 296 1306
Gasoline market: billion gallons 140 16
Diesel market: billion gallons 50 24
Corn ethanol production: billion 4.2 0.3
gallon
Corn production: million tons 332 128
Arable land: million hectares 186 130

28
U.S. Biodiesel Production

29
U.S. Biodiesel Production Has Increased
Dramatically and Will Continue to Do So

30
U.S. Biodiesel Plant Location

31
 Incentives and Policies Have Played a
Major Role in Biofuel Use
 U.S.
– $0.51/gallon incentive for ethanol
– $1.00/gallon incentive for biodiesel
– The 2005 Energy Policy Act establishes renewable
fuel standards
 Brazil
– In early years, government had financial incentives
– But sugarcane ethanol is now self-sustaining
economically
 China
– Grain ethanol producers receive RMB 1,200/tonne
of ethanol

32
Potential Adverse Effects of Large-
Scale Biofuel Production
Land availability in individual countries
Food vs. fuel debate
Potential soil effects: erosion, carbon depletion,
etc.
Water pollution by nitrate from intensive farming
Water resource requirements
Ecological effects of land cultivation for biofuel
production

33