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L1R8 - Quantitative Methods - IR
L1R8 - Quantitative Methods - IR
Concepts
Reading 8 - LOSs
• LOSs Covered
• 8b, 8c, 8d, 8e, 8f, 8g, 8h, 8i, 8j, 8k, 8l,
8m, 8n
• LOSs Not Covered
• 8o
Definitions
Random Variable : uncertain quantity
B
If the odds against an event, E, are A:B, then: P E
AB
Practice Question 8-1
Analysts have quoted the odds against Syzygy Unlimited
meeting its quarterly earnings target at 2:3. The analysts’
estimate of the probability that Syzygy meets its earnings
target is closest to:
A. 40%
B. 60%
C. 67%
Unconditional & Conditional Probability
The unconditional probability of A – P(A) – is the probability of A
irrespective of the outcome of other events (or without the knowledge
of the outcome of other events).
Example: the probability that the economy will expand by more than
2%.
Example: the probability that the economy will expand by more than
2% given that the Fed has reduced interest rates by 50 basis points.
A AB B
Multiplication Rule
Interest Rates
P=
Decrease 0.80 EPS = $3.10
P = 0.70 P = 0.56
E(EPS) =
$3.11
P = 0.30 EPS = $3.00
P=
Interest Rates 0.90
P = 0.27
Increase
E(EPS) = 0.14($3.50) + 0.56($3.10) P = 0.10
P X X E X
2
X 2
X i i
i 1
Expected Value, Variance, Std. Dev. – II
Example: You’re given the following data:
Xi P(Xi)
4% 0.10
3% 0.20
-1% 0.30
2% 0.40
E(X) = 0.1(4%) + 0.2(3%) + 0.3(-1%) + 0.4(2%) = 1.5%
= 0.000305
σX = √0.000305 = 1.746%
Covariance – I
Given a population of pairs of observations {(X1, Y1), . . .,
(Xn, Yn)}, and mean values μX, μY for the Xs and Ys,
respectively, the covariance of X and Y is:
n
X i X Yi Y
Cov X ,Y i 1
n
If the observations form a sample, the covariance is:
X
n
i X Yi Y
Cov X ,Y i 1
n 1
If there is a probability P(Xi, Yi) for each observation, the
covariance is:
n
Cov X ,Y P X i ,Yi X i X Yi Y
i 1
Covariance – II
Example: You’re given the following data:
(Xi, Yi) P(Xi, Yi)
(4%, 2%) 0.10
(3%, -2%) 0.20
(-1%, 4%) 0.30
(2%, 3%) 0.40
μX = 0.1(4%) + 0.2(3%) + 0.3(-1%) + 0.4(2%) = 1.5%
= -0.00025
Covariance – III
Example: You’re given the following table of joint probabilities for all possible
pairs of returns r1 and r2:
Returns r2 = 2% r2 = 4% r2 = 7% Sum
r1 = 5% 0.10 0.05 0.15 0.30
r1 = 7% 0.05 0.20 0.10 0.35
r1 = 9% 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.35
Sum 0.30 0.40 0.30
E(r1) = 0.30(5%) + 0.35(7%) + 0.35(9%) = 7.1%
E(r2) = 0.30(2%) + 0.40(4%) + 0.30(7%) = 4.3%
Cov(r1,r2) = 0.10(5% – 7.1%)(2% – 4.3%) + . . .
+ 0.05(9% – 7.1%)(7% – 4.3%) = -0.000083
σ2(r1) = 0.30(5% – 7.1%)2 + 0.35(7% – 7.1%)2 + 0.35(9% – 7.1%)2 = 0.000259
σ(r1) = √0.000259 = 1.609%
σ2(r2) = 0.30(2% – 4.3%)2 + 0.40(4% – 4.3%)2 + 0.30(7% – 4.3%)2 = 0.000381
σ(r2) = √0.000381 = 1.952%
ρ(r1, r2) = -0.000083 / [(1.609%)(1.952%)]
= -0.2642
Covariance – IV
Properties of covariance:
• Values can range from -∞ to +∞.
• Positive values suggest that when X is above its mean,
Y is above its mean, and when X is below its mean, Y is
below its mean.
• Negative values suggest that when X is above its mean,
Y is below its mean, and when X is below its mean, Y is
above its mean.
• The units are the product of the units on X and the units
on Y; e.g., if X is interest rate and Y is EPS, then the
units on Cov(X,Y) are % × $/share.
Correlation – I
The correlation of two variables X and Y is:
Cov X ,Y
Corr X ,Y
XY
Properties of correlation:
• Measures the strength of the linear relationship of X, Y.
• Values can range from -1 to +1.
• Positive values suggest that X and Y are above their
means together, or below their means together.
• Negative values suggest that when X is above its mean,
Y is below its mean, and vice-versa.
• Correlation is just a number; it has no units.
• Population correlation is denoted by ρ, sample
correlation by r; r is always equal to ρ.
Correlation – II
Example: You’re given the following data:
(Xi, Yi) P(Xi, Yi)
(4%, 2%) 0.10
(3%, -2%) 0.20
(-1%, 4%) 0.30
(2%, 3%) 0.40
μX = 1.5%, μY = 2.2%
σX = 1.746%, σ Y = 2.182%
Cov(X,Y) = -0.00025
Cov X ,Y 0.00025
X ,Y 0.6561
XY 1.746% 2.182%
Practice Question 8-2
Given the variance of X is 1.4, the variance of Y is 2.1, and
the covariance of X and Y is -0.429, the correlation of X
and Y is closest to:
A. -0.250
B. -0.146
C. -0.050
Portfolio Returns
Given a portfolio with two assets having weights w1 and w2
(w1 + w2 = 1), expected returns r1 and r2, standard
deviations of returns σ1 and σ2, respectively, and
correlation of returns ρ1,2, the expected portfolio return is:
E rport w1r1 w 2r2
E(rp) σ(rp)
A. 6.20% 5.37%
B. 6.20% 8.95%
C. 7.80% 8.95%
Bayes’ Formula – I
For any events A and B:
P B | A P A
P A | B
P B
This is a straightforward consequence of the rules for
conditional probability:
P A | B P B P AB P B | A P A
Simply divide each side by P(B).
P E | D P D 0.90 0.60
P D | E 87.1%
P E 0.62
Bayes’ Formula – III
Economy
Expands P = 0.60 × 0.90 = 0.54
Interest Rates
Decrease
Economy
P = 0.60 × 0.10 = 0.06
Contracts
Economy
P = 0.40 × 0.20 = 0.08
Expands
Interest Rates
Increase
Economy
P = 0.40 × 0.80 = 0.32
Contracts
0.54
P D | E 87.1%
0.54 0.08
Practice Question 8-4
Alpha Beta Gamma (ΑΒΓ) Corporation hopes to sign a large contract
in a new market it’s been pursuing; ΑΒΓ puts the probability of signing
at 75%. If they’re successful, there’s an 80% chance they’ll meet next
quarter’s earnings goal, while if they fail there’s only a 15% chance of
meeting the goal. If they meet the goal, the probability that they signed
the contract is closest to:
A. 60%
B. 75%
C. 94%