ADVANCES IN EARTHQUAKE

PREDICTION AND WARNING

SYSTEMS IN JAPAN

Lee Boon Hon

Masachika Tanigawa
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, JAPAN
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 Outline

1. Earthquakes and the impacts in Japan

2. Methods of prediction

3. Emergency Early Warning (EEW) System

4. Summary and conclusions

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1. Earthquakes and the impacts in Japan
1.1. Map of tectonic plates

 Many major earthquakes have occurred

at plate boundaries.
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1.2. Examples of recent major
earthquakes in Japan

Iwate-Miyagi
Nairiku Earthquake
Great Hanshin (2008)
Earthquake
(1995)
Mid Niigata
Prefecture
Earthquake
(2004)

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Great Hanshin earthquake

Hanshin line

Hanshin EXPWY
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 1.3. Details of the earthquakes

Mid Niigata Iwate-Miyagi

Great Hanshin
Prefecture Nairiku
Earthquake (1995)
Earthquake (2004) Earthquake (2008)

JMA magnitude M7.3 M6.8 M7.2

Fatalities 6,437 68 12

Disappearances 3 --- 12

Casualties 43,792 4,805 433

Evacuees > 300,000 > 103,000 Not available

Damage (Yen) 10 trillion 3 trillion 0.14 trillion

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2. Methods of prediction

2.1. Non technical methods

2.2. Seismicity pattern

2.3. Earthquake early warning (EEW) system

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2.1. Non technical methods (1/2)
Predicting earthquakes by observing abnormal events in nature

For example, during the Great Hanshin Earthquake, following events

have been observed:

Unusual phenomena in weather

Abnormal animal behavior
and the earth ‘s crust
• Milky water came out from hot
• Snakes came out from hibernation
spring source
• Usually unseen bats flew in a group
• Orange and blue flash shined like
• Huge number of bream being
aurora for around 4 seconds and
caught (Awaji-island)
noise from earth is heard (west
area of Kobe)

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2.1. Non technical methods (2/2)
 1975 Haicheng earthquake in China : M7.2 ~ 1,300
fatalities
 Abnormal events were observed and earthquake warning had
been sent out 9 hours before the real event.
 (large group of rats running together, chickens flew in a group,
water spilled out from wells)

BUT
 1976 Tangshan Earthquake in China : M7.8 ~ 242,419
fatalities
 Failed prediction causing a large number of fatalities.

Number of fatalities can be hugely reduced

if earthquake can be successfully predicted 9
Seismologists believe that earthquakes occur in a cyclic pattern

Seismicity pattern of Kanto area

As the time span is too large, the exact time cannot be predicted
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 2.3 Emergency early warning
(EEW) system
Information before strong ground shaking

 Predicting earthquake after receiving some early

signals from ground movement
 Send out real time early warning
 Japan is now applying EEW system
 Similar kind of projects
 Mexico, Taiwan, California, SAFER (Seismic eArly
warning For EuRope) project at Europe

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3. Emergency Early Warning (EEW)
system
3.1 Concept of EEW

3.2 Brief history of EEW

3.3 Information system of EEW

3.4 Examples 0f EEW application

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 3.1. Concept of EEW
Predicting earthquakes by detecting primary waves

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 3.1. Concept of EEW
Stations used for EEW

●：JMA、●：Hi-net (NIED)
>1000 stations with a spacing of 20km
NIED: National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention 14
 3.2. Brief history of EEW

Development of EEW technology ( with Railway Technical Research

1992-
Institute )

Feb 2004 Start of trial provision ( for Kanto area )

Mar 2005 Expansion of trial provision area ( for North-Japan area )

Integrated use of ‘Not Yet Arrived Data Method’ ( Algorithm

Jun 2005
Developed at NIED into EEW )

Mar 2006 Expansion of trial provision area ( for whole country )

Aug 2006 Start of interim provision to registered corporations

Oct 2007 Start of provision to the public

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 3.3. Information system of EEW

 Announcement
through TV and Radio
 Announcement by
local authorities
 Announcement at
public places (shopping
mall etc)

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3.4. Example of EEW application

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3.4. Examples of EEW application

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3.5. Pros and cons of EEW

Reliable
Consistent

Short warning time

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 4. Summary and conclusions

 Study of animal behavior

is not dependable
 Seismicity pattern is not
accurate
 Prediction and warning
can save many lives, but
accurate prediction is
difficult
 Insufficient time to
evacuate in EEW system World’s largest shaking table in Miki
 Knowledge on earthquake City, Hyogo-prefecture, JAPAN
mechanism is not enough

More research is essential

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 Thank you
for your attention

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