Sidang Skripsi

Program Sarjana Terapan Meteorologi

STMKG 2018

IDENTIFICATION OF THE EFFECT OF CEMPAKA TROPICAL CYCLONE

PHENOMENON FOR VOLCANIC ASH DISTRIBUTION ON MOUNT AGUNG
USING PUFF MODEL
WITH RADAR DATA INPUT AND VISUAL DATA INPUT

Abdul Hamid Al Habib1, I Wayan Gita Giriharta2, Citra Mutia Lestari3,

Imma Redha Nugraheni4
1,2,3,4 College of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysic

PROGRAM STUDI METEOROLOGI

SEKOLAH TINGGI METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI
DAN GEOFISIKA
The 9th Basic Science International Conference (BaSIC)
STMKG
OUTLINE

SEKOLAH
The TINGGI Science
9th Basic METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI
International DAN GEOFISIKA
Conference - 2018
(BaSIC)
 BACKGROUND

25-29 November 2017 Impact

Cempaka tropical cyclone influences
Agung mountain the direction and speed of the distribution
Eruption of volcanic ash from Agung Mountain

Cempaka  close aerodrome Lombok International

Tropical Cyclone Airport ( November 26, 2017) and
Denpasar Ngurah Rai Airport
(November 27, 2017)

 445 flights that have impacts, both

flights to and from Bali

 Visibility is short

 Damaging an aircraft engine

TheSEKOLAH
9th Basic Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)- 2018
DAN GEOFISIKA
 Research Domain
1. Agung mountain eruption => 25-29 November 2017
( coordinate 8020’35’’LU 115030’25’’ BT )
2. Cempaka Tropical Cyclone => 26-30 November 2017
(coordinate 8,6o LS & 110,8o BT )

Data
Radar Product → CMAX, VCUT, MCAPPI
Visual Data → Volcano Observatory Notice For
Aviation (VONA) PVMBG
GFS → NCEP NOAA
Satelit imagery → Himawari 8 Kanal IR4, IR2,VIS , S1,
S2 dan I4

TheSEKOLAH
9th Basic Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)- 2018
DAN GEOFISIKA
 Data and Methodology

TheSEKOLAH
9th Basic Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)- 2018
DAN GEOFISIKA
 Characteristic Analysis of Weather Radar
Velocity Analysis
echo movements are seen
approaching Lombok's weather
M Gn.
radar image, indicated by a green
velocity pattern. While the echo
Agung
C movement away from the radar is
indicated by a red velocity pattern.
A 25 Nov 2017 26 Nov 2017 27 Nov 2017 a. The Figures .shows the
distribution of volcanic ash on
P November 25, 2017 23.40 UTC to
November 26, 2017 19.40 UTC
P heading towards the radar at a
I 28 Nov 2017 29 Nov 2017
speed of 0-2 m / s.
b. From the Figures on November
27, 2017 20.50 UTC until 28
November 2017 15.00 UTC when
Cempaka Tropical Cyclone was
formed, the distribution of volcanic
ash appeared to move away from
the radar at a speed of 0-5 m / s

The 9th Basic

SEKOLAH Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)
DAN GEOFISIKA - 2018
 Characteristic Analysis of Weather Radar
Reflektifity Analysis

Volcanic ash has different

characteristics from clouds, especially
if observed from weather radar. The
difference is the reflectivity value
V observed by a weather radar. The
characteristics of volcanic ash
observed in the weather radar have
C reflectivity values between -20 dBz to
20 dBz (Selex, 2013)
U
T Classification
Fine Ash, Tumbling
dBZ
-12.7484
Fine Ash, Oblate -12.0257
Fine Ash, Prolate -13.1592
Coarse Ash, Tumbling 17.1295
Coarse Ash, Oblate 17.8018
Coarse Ash, Prolate 16.8287

The 9th Basic

SEKOLAH Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)
DAN GEOFISIKA - 2018
 RADAR DATA INPUT AND VISUAL DATA INPUT
Date Time of Report Plume height Plume height
eruption released (Visual) (Radar)
(VONA)
25/11/2017 09.20 UTC 10.08 UTC 14.854 ft 15.226 ft

25/11/2017 21.45 UTC 21.50 UTC 19.654 ft 25.920 ft

27/11/2017 23.10 UTC 23.16 UTC 22.854 ft 28.044 ft

The height of volcanic ash on November 27

2017 at 23.50 UTC based on VONA Magma
Indonesia is the eruption time with the
highest plume height, where the height of
volcanic ash based on VCUT products radar
image reaches 8.5 km
SEKOLAH TINGGI The
METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI
9th Basic Science DANConference
International GEOFISIKA(BaSIC)
- 2018
 PUFF MODEL FORMULA
The PUFF model used in this study is a model built by Tanaka (1994) then
written in detail by Searcy et al. (1998) as an application of pollutant
dispersion models. This PUFF model is based on a three-dimensional (3D)
Lagrangian form of the Navier-Stokes equation. Lagrangian calculates the
trajectory of particle coordinates. In the lagrangian framework, the spread of
material is determined by fluid motion, and diffusion is illustrated by a
stochastic process of random motion
 𝒓𝒊 = (𝒙,𝒚,𝒛) is the position of the vector of particles
𝒊 at time t.
 𝑺 = the initial location of the particle as a source
term.
 𝑽 = (𝒖,𝒗,𝒘) is the local wind speed for the spread
of particles, whereas 𝒁 = (𝒄𝒉,𝒄𝒉,𝒄𝒗) is the
diffusion velocity produced by Gaussian random
numbers, and G =(0,0,- 𝒘𝒕) is the speed of
gravitational fallout which is approximated by the
law of stokes.

TheSEKOLAH
9th Basic Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)- 2018
DAN GEOFISIKA
 PUFF MODEL (3D)
 illustrates the results of the PUFF
model for the dispersion plume 5, 9
and 12 hours after the eruption which
occurred at 09.20 UTC on November
25, 2017. The picture shows the
prediction of the distribution of the
plume before the second eruption
occurred on the same day at the hour
21.45 UTC
 The color of the particles indicates the
difference in the height of the plume
 Five hours after the eruption it was
seen that the distribution of the plume
RADAR VISUAL was directed towards the southeast
(25 Nov 2017 09.20 UTC) (25 Nov 2017 09.20 UTC)  The results of the plume height with
radar data input have a higher
elevation than the results of visual data
input

TheSEKOLAH
9th Basic Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)- 2018
DAN GEOFISIKA
 PUFF MODEL (3D)
 illustrates the results of the PUFF model for
plume dispersion 3, 6 and 12 hours after the
eruption that occurred at 23.10 UTC on
November 27, 2017
 The Cempaka Tropical cyclone effect to the
wind direction and speed in various layers,
which initially blows from the west, changing
direction from the east and can affect the
dispersion of the plume to the I Gusti Ngurah
Rai Airport

RADAR VISUAL
(27 Nov 2017 23.10 UTC) (27 Nov 2017 23.10 UTC)

TheSEKOLAH
9th Basic Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)- 2018
DAN GEOFISIKA
 PUFF MODEL (2D)

RADAR VISUAL
(25 Nov 2017 21.45 UTC) (25 Nov 2017 21.45 UTC)

TheSEKOLAH
9th Basic Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)- 2018
DAN GEOFISIKA
 25 Nov
Streamline
26 Nov
Analysis
27 Nov

28 Nov 29 Nov

TheSEKOLAH
9th Basic Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)- 2018
DAN GEOFISIKA
 VERIFICATION

TheSEKOLAH
9th Basic Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)- 2018
DAN GEOFISIKA
 CONCLUSION
The Cempaka tropical cyclone in the Tropical Storm phase (27-28 November 2017) influences
01 wind direction and speed in the Gunung Agung region, resulting in the direction of the
distribution of volcanic ash drawn to the southwest

02 The results of verification of satellite images, the direction of movement of volcanic ash distribution
with the PUFF model with the input of radar data are closer to identical than the input of visual data.

03 The distribution of Volcanic Ash in each wind layer on the PUFF model with radar data input tends
to be more heterogeneous than visual data input

The height of the plume based on the VCUT product radar image is more accurate than the Visual data
04 from VONA because it can capture objects of small size

Data on the distribution of volcanic ash with the PUFF model can be used in delivering information to the
05 pilot because the data is more detailed and can predict up to 24 hours after the eruption

TheSEKOLAH
9th Basic Science
TINGGI International
METEOROLOGI Conference
KLIMATOLOGI (BaSIC)- 2018
DAN GEOFISIKA
 Thankyou!

Abdul Hamid Al Habib al_habieb +628787182619