Riskness of an investment proposal can be

judged from the variability of its possible

returns. Risk may be broken down into
following three types:
 A risk situation is one in which probabilities
of particular event occurring are known.
 An uncertain situation is one where these
probabilities are not known.
 Certainty – No Risk:
 MEASURES OF RISK :
RANGE Rg = Rn – RL

MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION -

STANDARD DEVIATION – σ = [ΣPi(Ri-R2)]1/2

COFFICENT OF VARIATION- CR = σ/R

SEMI VARIANCE – SV= ΣPi(Ri-R)2

Where:
Rn = Highest Possible Outcome.
RL =lowest possible outcome
Pi = probability associated with the Ith outcome.
R = Arithmetic Average
(Ri-R) = (Ri-R) when Ri < R and o when Ri > R

Ex: The probability distribution of the outcome of an

investment is shown below:
Outcome : 900 600 200
Probability : 0.2 0.5 0.3
Compute various measures of variability.
Solution:
Range = Rn-RL = 900 – 200 = 700
MAD = Σ Pi │Ri – R │
=0.2 X (360) + 0.5 (60) + 0.3 (340) = 204 Rs
σ = [ΣPi (Ri-R)2]1/2
=[0.2(900-540)2 +0.5(600-540)2 +0.3 (200-
540)2 ]1/2
=250
CV = σ/R = 250/540 =0.46
SV = 0.2(0)2 +0.5(0)2 +0.3(340)2 =Rs. 34680
Ex: On the basis of the following information find out
which project is more risky by adopting standard
deviation approach :
POSSIBLE PROJ. A CIF PROB. PROJECT B PROB.
EVENTS CIF
A 4000 0.10 12000 0.10
B 5000 0.20 10000 0.15
C 6000 0.40 8000 0.50
D 7000 0.20 6000 0.15
E 8000 0.10 4000 0.10
TABLE ‘A’ CIF (R1-R) (R1-R)2 P
A 4000 -2000 4000000 0.10
B 5000 -1000 1000000 0.20
C 6000 0 0 0.40
D 7000 1000 1000000 0.20
E 8000 2000 40,00,000 0.10
TOTAL 12,00,000

σ = √12,00,000 = 1095
TABLE ‘B’ CIF (R1-R) (R1-R)2 P
A 4000 -2000 4000000 0.10
B 5000 -1000 1000000 0.20
C 6000 0 0 0.40
D 7000 1000 1000000 0.20
E 8000 2000 40,00,000 0.10

σ = √4400000 = 2098
Project ‘B’ is more risky
 ANALYTICAL DERIVATION OR SIMPLE
ESTIMATION:
Uncorrelated cash flows:
No relationship between cash flows form one period
to another in this case the expected net present value
and the standard deviation of NPV are defined as
follows:
Where:
NPV = expected net present value
At = expected cash flow for year t.
i = risk free interest rate.
I = initial outlays
σ(NPV) = standard deviation of NPV
σt = standard deviation of cash flow for year t.
The risk of the project, reflected in σ(NPV), is
Considered in conjunction with NPV, computed using a
Risk adjusted discount rate and then if this is viewed
along with σ(NPV), the risk factor would be double
counted.
Ex: a project involving an outlay of Rs. 10,000 has the
following benefit associated with it:

YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3

NCF PROB. NCF PROB. NCF PROB.
3000 0.3 2000 0.2 3000 0.3
5000 0.4 4000 0.6 5000 0.4
7000 0.5 6000 0.2 7000 0.3
PERFECTLY CORRELATED CASH FLOWS:
The actual cash flow in one year is X standard
deviation to the left of its expected value,
cash flows in other years will also X standard
deviations to the left of their respective
expected values.
Ex: An investment project involves a current outlay of
Rs. 10,000. the mean and standard deviation of cash
flows, which are perfectly correlated, are as follows:
YEAR AT σt
1 5000 1500
2 3000 1000
3 4000 2000
4 3000 1200

Calculate, NPV and σ (NPV), assuming a risk free

interest rate of 6%.
Solution:

5000 + 3000 + 4000 + 3000 - 10000= Rs. 3121

[1.06] [1.06]2 [1.06]3 [1.06]4 [1.06]5
 Moderately correlated cash flows :
Moderately correlated cash flows may be evaluated
with the help of a series of conditional probable
distribution
EX: a project which involves on outlay of Rs. 1,00,000
Expect to generate 0cash inflows are as follows :
Conditional probability distribution
 Year 1 Year 2 -Year 3
NET CASH INTIAL NCF CONDITIONAL NCF CONDITIONA CF Joint
PROBABILITY L probability
FLOW PROB. PROBABILIT stream
Y

30000 0.8 35000 0.6 1 0.24

30000 0.5 40000 0.2 40000 0.4 2 0.16
45000 0.5 3 0.05
50000 0.5 4 0.05
60000 0.7 5 0.21
50000 0.5 50000 0.6 70000 0.3 6 0.09
60000 0.4 75000 0.8 7 0.16
90000 0.2 8 0.04

Calculate NPV and σ (NPV) assuming RF = 6%

NPV = Rs. 21,186
σ (NPV) = Rs. 33,647
 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF NPV
PRO.
1. 30000 + 30000 + 35000 – 100000 = -15612 0.24
[1.06] [1.06]2 [1.06]3
2. 30000 + 30000 + 40000 – 100000 = -11414 0.16
[1.06] [1.06]2 [1.06]3
3. 30000 + 40000 + 45000 – 100000 = 1684 0.05
[1.06] [1.06]2 [1.06]
4. 30000 + 40000 + 50000 – 100000 = 5882 0.05
[1.06] [1.06]2 [1.06]3
5. 50000 + 50000 + 60000 – 100000 = 42046 0.21
[1.06] [1.06]2 [1.06]3
6. 50000 + 50000 + 70000 – 100000 = 50442 0.09
[1.06] [1.06]2 [1.06]3
7. 50000 + 60000 + 75000 – 100000 = 63540 0.16
[1.06] [1.06]2 [1.06]3
8. 50000 + 60000 + 90000 – 100000 = 76134 0.04
[1.06] [1.06]2 [1.06]3
EXAMPLE:
A firm faces two choices. First choice is to build a
big plant by investing initially Rs 4 crore and the
other alternative is to invest initially only Rs. 1
crore for a small plant and subsequently to
enlarge it, on the basis of its initial experience of
small plant and the future prospects the other
relevant information is as follows:
 DEMAND PROBABILITY PV OF EXP. E.I.F
CONDITION DISCOUNT AT
FIRM’S
IST CHOICE :
BIG PLANT HIGH 0.3 Rs. 10 Cr.
INITIAL MEDIUM 0.5 Rs. 4 Cr.
INVESTMENT
Rs. 4 Cr. LOW 0.2 Rs. 1 Cr.
IIND CHOICE :
SMALL PLANT HIGH 0.3 Rs. 3 Cr.
INITIAL MEDIUM 0.5 Rs. 1 Cr.
INVESTMENT
Rs. 1 Cr. LOW 0.2 Rs. 1 Cr.
a. From the above data, which alternative is preferable
and why? It make a difference if you are supplied
with additional information regarding coefficient of
variation of NPV
b. What other factors would you like to take into
account while deciding infavour of big plant ?
BIG PLANT SMALL PLANT
DEMAND P.V OF PROBABI CERTAIN P.V OF C.F PROBABI CERTAIN
CONDITION C.F LITY C.F LITY C.F
HIGH 10 0.3 3 3 0.3 0.9
MEDIUM 4 0.5 2 2 0.5 1.0
LOW 1 0.2 0.2 1 0.2 0.2
5.2 2.1
INITIAL INVESTMENT 4.0 INITIAL INVESTMENT 1.0
NPV 1.2 NPV 1.1
Big plant has a higher NPV as compared to small
plant. Hence, on this basis in the former seems to be
profitable however, since the initial investment widely
differs, it will be appropriate to calculate profitability
or P.V
P.V Index : Big Plant 5.4 X 100 = 130 %
4
small plant = 22 X 100 = 220 %
1
P.V INDEX of small plant is substantially higher than
that of the big plant. Thus, the small plant is more
profitable than the big plant and hence preferable.
 Answer may be different if coefficient of variation
of NPV is also supplied. Higher the coefficient of
variation higher the risk.
Other factors:
 Use of extra capacity
 Fixed and variable on proportion
 Possibility of losses due idle capacity
 Requirement of funds at the entire range of order
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:
Sensitivity analysis indicates exactly how much NPV
will change in response to a given change in an input
variable other things held constant because it
answers questions such as this:
“what if sales are only 20,000 units rather than
25,000? Than what will the NPV Be ?
Usually sensitivity analysis provides information
about cash flow under three assumptions:
1. Pessimistic
2. Most likely
3. Optimistic
Procedure :
 Set-up relationship between basic underlying factors
and NPV
 Estimate range of variation and most likely value of
each of the basic underlying factors
 Study the effect on P.V of variations in 8the basic
variables.
Example:
X LTD. Is attempting to evaluate two mutually exclusive
projects ‘A’ and ‘b’ each project is estimated at Rs.
2,000 P.A in the next 15 years. The management has
made the following optimistic, most likely and
pessimistic estimates of the annual cash inflow
associated with each of these projects.
Project ‘A’ Project ‘B’
INITIAL INVESTMENT 10,000 10,000
ESTIMATED CASH IN
FLOW (P.A)
Pessimistic 1,500 -
Most likely 2,000 2,000
Optimistic 2,500 4,000
 You are required to give your considered opinion for
helping the management in arriving at a decision.
Sol: in order to arrive at a decision about the selection
of a project, the following figures have been
ascertained regarding the NPV of cash inflows of each
of the projects.
PROJECT ‘A’ [INITIAL INVESTMENT RS. 10,000]
CIF for each of Discount P.V NPV
15 years factor
Pessimistic 15,000 7.606 11409 1409
Most likely 2000 7.606 15212 5212
Optimistic 2500 7.606 19015 9015
PROJECT ‘B’ [INITIAL INVESTMENT RS. 10,000]
CIF FOR EACH DISCOUNT P.V NPV
OF 15 YEARS FACT OR
PESSIMISTIC - - - (-)10,000
MOST LIKELY 2000 7.606 15212 5212
OPTIMISTIC 4000 7.606 30424 20424

The above data indicates that project ‘B’ is more risky

than project ‘A’. It will depend upon the management
whether they would like to take project ‘A’ or ‘B’
depending upon the risk they want to undertake.
Project ‘B’ has higher risk together with A higher
profitability.
EXAMPLE: X ltd is considering a project with the
following cash flows:
YEAR PURCHASE RUNNING SAVING S
PLANT COST
0 7000 - -
1 - 2000 6000
2 - 2500 7000

The cost of capital is 8% measure the sensitivity of

the project to changes in the levels of plant value,
running costs and saving [considering] each factors is
the most sensitive to affect the acceptability of the
project.
SOL:
COMPUTATION OF PRESENT VALUE OF CASH FLOWS
YEAR DISCOUNT P.V PLANT P.V OF RUN P.V OF P.V OF N.C.F
FACTOR COST COST SAVINGS
0 1.00 [7000] - - [7000]
1 0.93 - [1860] 5580 3720
2 0.86 - [2150] 6020 3870
Total [7000] [4010] 11600 NPV 500

THE PROJECT HAS A POSITIVE NPV AND HENCE IT

MAY BE ACCEPTED. THE CHANGES IN CASH FLOW
WHICH WOULD BE NECESSARY BEFORE THE
PROJECT ONLY JUST BREAKS EVEN ARE AS
FOLLOWS:
1. PLANT COSTS WOULD NEED TO INCREASE BY APV
OF Rs. 590, i.e BY 590/7000= 8.4%
2. RUNNING COSTS WOULD NEED TO INCREASE BY A
PV OF Rs. 590 i.e. by 590/4010=14.7%
3. Savings would need to fall short by a PV of Rs 590
i.e. by 590/11600=5.1%

THE ABOVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SAVINGS IS

THE MOST SENSITIVE FACTOR TO AFFECT THE
ACCEPTABILITY OF THE PROJECT.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, SUFFERS FROM A
LIMITATIONS NO DOUBT IT PROVIDES
DIFFERENT CASH FLOW ESTIMATES
UNDER THREE ASSUMPTIONS, IT
HOWEVER DOES NOT PROVIDE CHANGES
OF OCCORANCE OF EACH OF THESE
ESTIMATES.
x ltd has given the following possible cash inflows for
two of their projects ‘x’ and ‘y’ out of which one they
wish to undertake together with their associated
probabilities. both the projects will require an equal
investment of Rs. 5,000.
You are requested to give your considered opinion
regarding the selection of the project:
POSSIBLE Project ‘X’ Project ‘Y’
EVENT CIF PROBABILITY CIF PROBABILITY
A 4000 0.10 12000 0.10
B 5000 0.20 10000 0.15
C 6000 0.40 8000 0.50
D 7000 0.20 6000 0.15
E 8000 0.10 4000 0.10
 COMPUTATION OF EXPECTED MONETARY
VALUES FOR PROJECTS
PROJECT ‘X’ PROJECT ‘Y’
CIF PROB. EX- CIF PROB. EXP.VALU
VALUES E
A 4000 0.10 400 12000 0.10 1200
B 5000 0.20 1000 10000 0.15 1500
C 6000 0.40 2400 8000 0.50 4000
D 7000 0.20 1400 6000 0.15 900
E 8000 0.10 800 4000 0.10 400
6000 8000
The working given above show that project
‘Y’ has higher expected monetary value as
compared to projected ‘X’. The monetary
value in case of project ‘Y’ is Rs 8000 while
the expected monetary value in case of
project ‘X’ is Rs 6000 thus project ‘Y’ is
preferable to project ‘X’
 A PROJECT’S RISK DEPENDS ON BOTH [I] ITS
SENSITIVITY TO CHANGES IN KEY VARIABLES AND [II]
THE RANGE OF LIKELY VALUES OF THESE VARIABLES
AS REFLECTED IN THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
SINCE, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS CONSIDERED ONLY THE
FIRST FACTOR, IT IS INCOMPLETE.
A RISK ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE WHICH CONSIDERED
THE SENSITIVITY OF NPV BOTH TO CHANGES IN KEY
VARIABLES AND ALSO TO THE RANGE OF LIKELY
VARIABLE VALUE IS SCENARIO ANALYSIS.
 A project may be evaluated under three different
scenario :
i. The base case scenario where the demand and price
are expected to be normal.
ii. The scenario where the demand is high, but the
price low.
iii. The scenario where the demand is low, but the
price high
SCENARIO Sales volumes S.P NPV
(Q)
Worst case 5000 1700 (22,421)
Base case 25000 2200 11,468
Best case 40000 2700 50,093
IT IS ALSO NAME BECAUSE THIS TYPE OF
ANALYSIS GREW OUT OF WORK ON THE
MATHEMATICS OF CASINO GAMBLING, TIES
TOGETHER SENSITIVITIES AND INPUT VARIABLES
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS.
SENSTIVITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SENSITIVITY OF THE CRITERION OF MERIT (NDV,
IRREIC) TO VARIATION IN BASIS FACTOR BUT
FAILS TO PROVIDE LIKELIHOOD OF SUCH
OCCURRENCES.
THIS INFORMATION CAN BE GENERATED BY
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION WHICH MAY BE USED
FOR DEVELOPING THE PROBABILITY PROFILE OF
A CRITERION OF MERIT BY WHICH HAVE A
BEARING ON THE CRITERION CHOSEN.
 PROCEDURE
1. Model the project – how NPV is related to the
parameters and exogenous variables.
2. Specify the values of parameters and the
probability distributions of the exogenous varia .
3. Select a value, at random, from probability
distributions of each of the exogenerous variable
4. Determine NPV corresponding to the randomly
generated values of exogenerous variables and
pre-specified parameter values.
5. Repeat steps (3) and (4) a number of items to get
a large number of simulated NPVS.
6. Plot the frequently Distribution of the NPV.
X corporation is evaluating an investment project there
is uncertainty associated with two aspects of this
project: annual net cash flow and life of the project,
NVP model of the project is an follow:

Where: i= risk free intrest rate = 10%

I = initial investment = 13000
CFt and n are stochastic exogenous variables with the
following distributions:
 ANNUAL CASH FLOW PROJECT LIFE
VALUE PROBABILITY VALUE PROBABILITY
1000 0.02 3 0.05
1500 0.03 4 0.10
2000 0.15 5 0.30
2500 0.15 6 0.25
3000 0.30 7 0.15
3500 0.20 8 0.10
4000 015 9 0.03
10 0.02

PERFORM 10 MANUAL SIMULATION RUNS FOR

PROJECT
SOLUTION:
TO PERFORM THE SIMULATION RUNS, WE HAVE TO
GENRATE VALUES, AT RANDOM, FOR THE TWO
EXOGENEOUS VARIABLES. FOR THIS PURPOSE, FOR
WE HAVE TO (i) SETUP THE CORRESPONDENCE
BETWEEN THE VALUES OF EXOGENOUS VARIABLES
AND RANDOM NUMBER GENRATING DEVICE.
 Correspondence between value of exogenous
variables and two digit random numbers.
VALUE PROBA. CUM TWO VALUE PROB. CUM RAN.
PRO. DIGIT PROB. NUM.
(R.N)
1000 0.02 0.02 00T001 Years 3 .05 0.05 00T004
1500 0.03 0.05 02-04 4 .18 0.15 05-14
2000 0.15 0.20 05-09 5 .30 0.45 15-44
2500 0.15 0.35 20-34 6 .25 0.70 45-69
3000 0.30 0.65 35-64 7 .15 0.85 70-84
3500 0.20 0.85 65-84 8 .10 0.95 85-94
4000 0.15 1.00 86-99 9 .03 0.98 95-97
10 .02 1.00 98-99
Now we are ready for simulation in order to obtain to obtain
random numbers use random no. table
SIMULATION RESULTS
Annual cash flow Project life
Run Random no. Corres. Value of Random no. Correspond NPV
A.C.F ence of P.L
1 53 3000 97 9 4277
2 66 3500 99 10 8506
3 30 2500 81 7 (829)
4 19 2000 09 4 (7660)
5 37 2500 67 6 (2112)
6 81 3500 70 7 4039
7 38 3000 75 7 1605
8 48 3000 83 7 1605
9 90 4000 33 5 2163
10 58 3000 52 6 66
 ISSUE IN APPLYING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION:
 What should the output be:
The output of simulation is the probability
distribution of IRR or NPV. It only shows what the
risk will be in the long run. It does not reflect the
risk borne by investors in capital market
 Is project Variability enough:
CAPM considers systematic risk important and not
unsystematic Risk. User must regart TR = SR
 How Should Extreme Values Be Interpreted:
Answering Extreme Questions Is Possible When
Tails Of Simulated Distribution Are Reliable But
Which Are Most Unreliable Handling Situation
Tactfully Practically
 How should extreme values be interpreted;
Answering extreme questions is possible when tails of
simulated Distributions are reliable but which are
most unreliable handling situations tactfully
practically.
 How should results of simulation be used:
Herts advocated simulation on the grounds that a
probability distribution of the criterion of merit (NPV
OR IRR) leads to better decision. However, this may
not be used successfully. Better way is to cover two
stage decision making process
1. Review the probability distribution of project
2. Define appropriate discount rate to be employed.
 D.T ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE LINKS EVENTS
CHRONOLOGICALLY WITH FORECASTED
PROBABILITY AND THUS GIVES A SYSTEMATIC
APPEARANCE OF DECISIONS AND THEIR
FORECASTED RESULTS:
STEP INVOLVED
 DEFINITION OF THE PROPOSAL
 IDENTIFICATION OF ALTERNATIVES
 GRAPHING THE DECISION TREE
 FORECASTING CASH FLOWS
 EVALUATING RESULTS
Example:
x ltd. Is considering the purchase of a new plant
requiring a cash outlay of Rs. 20,000 the plant is
expected to have a useful life of 2 years without any
salvage value. The cash flows and their associated
probabilities for the two years are as follows:

1st year CASH FLOW PROBABILITY

I 8000 0.3
Ii 11000 0.4
Iii 15000 0.3
 2nd Year, If Cash Flows In 1st Year Are:
SR NO. Rs. 8000 Rs 11000 Rs.15000
C.F PROB. C.F PROB. C.F PROB.
1 4000 0.2 13000 0.3 16000 0.1
2 10000 0.6 15000 0.4 20000 0.8
3 15000 0.2 16000 0.3 24000 0.1

Presuming that 10% is the cost of capital, you plot

the above data in the form of a decision tree and
suggest whether the project should be taken up or
not.
 Decision point RS NPV JOINT EXANP
PRO V
0.3 Rs 8,000 0.2 2,000 9424 0.06 565.4
0.6 10,000 4468 0.18 804.2
0.2 15,000 388 0.16 20.3

Cash 0.4 Rs 11,000 0.3 13000 737 0.12 88.4

outlay
0.4 15,000 2389 0.16 382.2
Rs.
20,000 0.3 16000 3215 0.12 385.8

0.3 Rs. 15,000 0.1 16,000 6851 0.03 205.5

0.8 20,000 10155 0.24 2437.2
0.1 24,000 13459 0.03 403.8
NPV 2513
 THE PROJECT GIVES A NET POSITIVE
VALUE OF RS. 2513 AT 10% DISCOUNT
FACTOR, HENCE IT MAY BE ACCEPTED
 The risk adjusted discount rate is based on the
presumption that investors expect a higher rate of
return on risky projects as compared to less risky
projects. The risk adjusted discount rate is:
rk = i + n +dk
WHERE:
rk = risk adjusted discount rate for project k.
i = risk free rate of interest.
n = adjustment for the firm’s normal risk.
dk = adjustment for the differential risk of project k.
Example: From the following data, state which project
is better:
YEAR PROJECT ‘A’ CAH FLOW ‘B’
0 -10000 10000
1 4000 5000
2 4000 6000
3 2000 3000

Riskless discount rate is 5% project A is less risky as

compared to project B. The management considers
risk premium rates at 5% and 10% respectively
appropriate for discounting the cash inflows.
Solution:
RISK ADJUSTED DISCOUNT RATE
PROJECT ‘A’ 5% + 5% = 10%
PROJECT ‘B’ 5% + 10% = 15%

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS

YEAR PROJECT ‘A’ @10% PROJECT ‘B’ @15%
0 -10000 -10000
1 3636 4350
2 3304 4536
3 1502 1974
NPV-1558 860

PRJECT ‘B’ IS SUPERIOR TO PROJECT ‘A’

HERE CASH FLOWS ARE REDUCED TO
CONSERVATIVE LEVEL BY APPLYING A CORRECTION
FACTOR TERMED AS CERTAINTY EQUIVALENT
COEFFICIENT

C.E.S = RISKLESS CASH FLOWS [CERTAIN]

RISKY CASH FLOW
EX: USING THE INFORMATION GIVEN AS ABOVE,
STATE WHICH PROJECT IS BETTER IT CERTAINTY
EQUIVALENT COEFFICIENT ARE:

YEAR PROJECT ‘A’ PROJECT ‘B’

1 0.90 0.80
2 0.80 0.70
3 0.60 0.50
 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS AT 5%
YEAR PROJECT ‘A’ P.V PROJECT ‘B’ P.V
CERTAIN C.F CERTAIN C.F
0 -10000 -10000 -10000 -10000
1 (4000 X .9) 3427 (5000 X .8) 3808
=3600 =4000
2 (4000 X .8) 2902 (6000 X .7) 3809
=3200 =4200
3 (2000 X .6) 1037 (3000 X .5) 1296
=1200 =1500

-2634 -1087

PROJECT ‘B’ IS BETTER THAN PROJECT ‘A’ HOWEVER IN BOTH

CASES NPV IS IN NEGATIVE, THEREFORE, NONE OF THEM CAN
BE ACCEPTED.
EX: X ltd. Is considering an investment proposal
involving an outlay of Rs. 4500000 the expected cash
flows and certainly equivalent co-efficient are :
YEAR EXPEC. E.F E.C.C
1 10,00,000 0.90
2 15,00,000 0.85
3 20,00,000 0.82
4 25,00,000 0.78

THE RISK FREE INTEREST RATE IS 5% CALCULATE

NPV.
10,00,000(0.90) + 15,00,000(0.85) + 20,00,000(0.82)
[1.05] [1.05]2 [1.05]3

25,00,000(0.78) – 45,00,000 = Rs.5,34,570

[1.05]4