Selection of Solar Irradiance

Method For Solar Thermal

Power Plant (STPP)
 Importance Of Estimating Solar Radiation

Due to strong increase of solar power generation, the predictions of incoming solar energy are ,
acquiring more importance.
•Solar radiation is an important parameter in solar energy application due to generation from
photovoltaic (PV) is directly related to this parameter.
The accurate solar radiation forecasting produced for a solar thermal power plant improve the
profitability and plant utilization
 Solar radiation varies nonlinearly due to atmospheric events such as cloudy weather, rain,
humudity etc. Therefore estimation of solar radiation is an attractive issue in solar energy field.
 Selection Of Solar Irradiation Method

1) Selecting Time Horizon- Based On The Application

2) Solar Irradiation Measurement

3) Methodology - Prediction Of Solar Irradiance

4) Analysis – Prediction Output Of Different Station

Experiment Of Solar Irradiation Selection
Location :
 Models for Solar Irradiation
 Physical Model
• Sky-based Image Forecasting Both These Models Use Satellites .
• Ground Based Images Forecasting
• Numeric Weather Prediction (NWP)

 Statistical Models
 Persistence
• Future Solar Irradiance (Xt+1) Depends On The Latest Measurement (Xt)

Xt+1 = Xt
 Auto Regressive
• Notation : AR (p) - Where p is Order Of Model

Where; c = Mean Value Of The Time Series

εt = Noise Signal
 Neural Network

• They Consist Input Layer, Hidden Layers And Output Layer.

• Parameters Like Temperature, Humidity, Wind Speed Etc.
Apply To The Input Layer.
• Model Give The Solar Irradiation By Performing The
Simulation On The Given Data.
• Notation : NN(p)(q) Where ; p = No. of layers
q = Order of Model

 Models Used In Experiment

• Statistical Model (Persistence, AR, NN)

• Statistical Models Are Simpler And Accurate Than The Physical Models (NWP) Which Required
Complex Computing System And Data.
 Parameters Consider In The Experiment
 Due To Non-stationary Behavior Of Half Daily Solar Irradiance Time Series, It Has
Been Transformed To Two New Variables:
I. Clearness Index (KT) – Ratio Between Ground Measured Solar Irradiance And
Extraterrestrial Solar Irradiance.
II. Lost Component (Lc) - Difference Between Extraterrestrial Solar Irradiance And
Ground Measured Solar Irradiance.

 Error measurement Index (rRMSD)

 X = Observed Value
 𝑥ҧ = Mean Of Observed Values
 𝑥ො = Predicted Value

 Improvement Over Persistence Model

 rRMSDp = For Persistence Model

 rRMSDm = For Model Essayed
 Time Horizon For Experiment
 In This Work We Present A Study Of Predictability Of Half Daily Global Solar Irradiance Time
Series Based On Statistical Models. The Time Horizon Of The Predictions Is 3 Days Or Six Half
Days.

 Daily Solar Irradiance Isn’t A Suitable Forecasting Time Step To Be Used In Step Because The
Temporal Capacity Of Thermal Energy Storage Is Between Six And Nine Hours.

 Half Daily Values Consist Of Two Values Of Accumulated Global Solar Irradiance For Each Day
Which Gives A High Detail Of The Dynamic Characteristic Of Solar Irradiance Divided By Solar
Noon.
 Experimental Setup
 For Each Station They Have Tested 10 Different Autoregressive Models AR(p) With Order
P= 1… 10.

The Different Configurations Of Neural Network Models NN(p)have Been Tested With
Different Input Vector Size From P = 1 ….10 .

 ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System) Model Has Been Tested With Different
Vector Size P = 1…6
Optimum Models for each station
 Solar Irradiation Measurement
 Equipment Used : Pyranometer (Thermopile type)

1) Outer Dome Of Optical Glass

2) Inner Dome Of Optical Glass
3) Black Carbon Disk (Illuminated By Sun) Absorb Solar Radiation –
Act As Sensing Element.
4) Control Disk (Not Illuminated By Sun) Acts As Compensating Element.
5) Thermopile – Temperature Sensor Compares The Temperature Rise Of
The Two Discs.
6) Output Lead.
7) Replaceable Silica Gel Cartridge Absorbs Moistures
8) Adjustable Screw Legs Let Level The Pyrometer
 Solar Cell Type Pyranometer
1) Dome Of Optical Glass Transmit Solar Radiation
2) Outer Housing, Provides Insulation From Heat And Electric Surface.
3) Center Part Of Pyranometer Where Sunlight Enters And Is Measured.
4) Filter Restricts The Range Of Solar Radiation Entering And Being
Measured. This Pyranometer Only Measure UV Lights.
5) Phosphor Absorbs Incoming Radiation Of A Particular Wavelength And
Re-emits Radiation Of A Different Wavelength That The Photodiode Is
Sensitive To.
6) Second Filter Allows Only Lights Produced By The Phosphor To Pass
Through
7) Aluminum Cylinder Provides Central Support Structure To Other
Equipment. To Improve Accuracy Of Measurement
8) Photo Diode Measure The Solar Radiation. Photo Diode Chosen
According To The Range Of Sunlight We Want To Measure.
9) Amplifier Increases Output From The Photodiode So It's Easier To
Detect.
10) Potentiometer Control Adjusts Strength Of Signal
11) Second Amplifier
12) 12-volt Battery Powers Amplifiers.
13) Output Lead
 Models Results

 Clearness Index Time Series Obtains Better Results In Models Of Lower Order Compare To Lost
Component.
 NN And ANFIS Models Obtain Better Results From Lc Time Series. Except In Lerida Station
Where Clearness Index Time Series Is Easier To Simulate By Models.
Models Results
 Conclusion
 Selection Of The Final Model, In Case There Are Various Models With Similar Errors, Is Based
On The Selection Of The Model With Less Number Of Parameters.

 We Can Reduce Redundancy By Selecting Model With Less Order.

Use Minimum Number Of Models To Simplify Forecasting Process.

Clearness Index Time Obtains Better Results In Models Of Lower Order Compared To Lost
Component. This Is An Indication That Clearness Index Time Series Have Less Complexity Than
Lost Component.