Adapting to climate change in the Severn Estuary:

the Corporate Response by Local Government

Dr Rhoda Ballinger
School of Earth & Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University
ballingerrc@cf.ac.uk

Littoral 2010 Conference

September 2010
Format
• IMCORE Project & the Severn Estuary Expert Couplet
• Severn Estuary Planning Review: Phases one & two
• Further research and scenario building
 The IMCORE Project &
the Severn Estuary Expert Couplet
 IMCORE Project
“Innovative Management of Europe’s
Changing Coastal Resource”

Aims:
• To promote a transnational,
innovative & sustainable approach
to reducing the impacts of climate
change on coastal resources
• To develop adaptation strategies for
coastal sites across North West
Europe
• To demonstrate the effectiveness of
various approaches to climate
change adaptation

www.imcore.eu

UKCIP’s Adaptation Wizard

 Severn Estuary ECN

Main aim:
To enhance the capacity for
Climate change adaptation in the
Severn Estuary area

Subsidiary aims:
 To inform the development of
climate change adaptation on the
Severn Estuary
 To encourage joint working and IMCORE Study Sites
improved interaction between 9 Expert Couplet Nodes (ECNs)
scientists and policy makers
Severn Estuary Planning Review
Severn Estuary Planning Review
• Phase One – Corporate Responses
to Climate Change on the Severn
Estuary
– How Severn Estuary planning
bodies around the estuary have
embedded climate change into
planning practice

• Phase Two– Seven Questions with

Planners
– What are the key issues and
concerns for Severn Estuary
planning bodies in adapting to
climate change at the coast
Phase One Methodology
Planning Policy Analysis:
Stocktake of Severn Estuary Plans
Policy Themes:
Corporate Responses to  Climate Change
 Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management

Climate Change Estuary Management
Criteria for Analysis:
Screening for:
 Policy occurrence
 Local government commitment on  Critique of policy content
climate change  Geographical coverage

 Dedicated climate change strategies Issues:

 Public provision of climate change • Not exhaustive
• Old & new style plans
information.
Historical Policy Analysis:
Comparison with ‘A Review of Development
Plans in the Severn Estuary Strategy Area:
1999 Update’ (Ballinger et al., 1999)
Stocktake Methodology
Welsh Planning Bodies /
Groups
Bridgend County Borough Council
Vale of Glamorgan Council
Cardiff City Council
Newport City Council
Monmouthshire County Council
South East Wales Strategic Planning
Group
Welsh Assembly Government
South West Regional Development
REVIEWED PLANNING
BODIES=20
REVIEWED PLANS =33
English Planning Bodies
Forest of Dean District Council
Stroud District Council
Tewkesbury Borough Council
Gloucester City Council
Gloucestershire County Council
Bristol City Council
North Somerset District Council
Sedgemoor District Council
West Somerset District Council
Somerset County Council
South Gloucestershire Council
Exmoor National Park
Agency
Phase One Findings

What are the patterns

around the estuary?
Summary: Emerging Policy Trends
Going Up
• Strong emergence of
explicit climate change
policies within emerging
plans
• focus remains on mitigation
• High numbers of flood risk
policies in both adopted
and emerging plans
Going Down
• ‘Dropping off’ of coastal
zone –related policies
within emerging plans
• Few references to Shoreline
Management Plans in
existing plans -none in
emerging plans
• Few references to Severn
Estuary Strategy in existing
plans & none in emerging
plans
Climate Change Policies & Measures

Majority
have
mitigation &
adaptation
measures

Several
developed
Climate
Different climate
Change change science
Strategies content in strategies
Phase One
Key Messages
• Congested policy space
around the estuary
• Need to raise profile of:
• Coastal planning issues (inc. the
value of the coast)
• Climate change adaptation
• Need to encourage:
• a ‘Sense of Severn Estuary’
• Severn Estuary Planning
Community?
Questions Raised
• Unexpected policy trends
• e.g. why have coastal-related
policies dropped off?
• Do we need a change in existing
planning guidance?
• Update / Refresh TAN14 Coastal
Planning?
• Influence of DCLG’s
‘Development & Coastal
Change’ consultation guidance
• How to encourage an adaptive
approach to climate change
adaptation?
Severn Estuary Planning Review
Phase Two
Phase Two – Methodology
• What are the key issues and
concerns for planning bodies
in adapting to climate
change at the coast?
• Semi-structured interview
schedule with 12 officers (11
planning policy officers & 1
project officer)
• Seven Questions Futures
method
Critical Issues
Archaeology 1
Development & Flood Risk
Transport 1
“…Number one is flooding…huge issue…”;
Sustainability of Coastal Towns 1 “…flooding is our big concern…”;
“…we have a small hamlet…really in
Cross-Border Working 1 danger…”;
“…so much of our urban development is
Building Design 2 in very vulnerable locations...”

Renewable Energy Generation 3

Nature Conservation 6

Development & Flood Risk 12

Favorable outcomes of
climate change adaptation
• Flood risk management (n=6)
• Increase in building design and standards (Futureproofing) (n=5)
• Local renewable energy generation (n=4)
• Use of Open Spaces (n=2)
• Protection major infrastructure assets (road and rail) (n=1)
• Greater prevalence of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) (n=1)
• Greater areas of coastal flood plain under High Level Environmental
Stewardship schemes (n=1)
• Maintaining integrity of nature conservation designations (n=1)
• Future development located to enable maximum use of public transport
(n=1)
Unfavorable outcomes of not adapting to
coastal climate change (inaction) on the
Severn Estuary :

• Flooding events continuing and increasing around the Severn

Estuary (n=9)
• Loss of nature conservation designations around the estuary (n=2)
• Loss of major infrastructure assets (road and rail) (n=1)
• Regional water shortages (n=1)

“…more vulnerable development in

inappropriate locations, coastal or not…”

“…can’t afford to maintain al our defences,

so if we don’t get planning right, we are
going to have ongoing costs & cost
implications from our development
decisions…”
Culture Changes Required
to Address Critical Issues
• Planning Framework, greater clarity on:
– actions required by planning bodies with regard to coastal change and
adaptation
– primacy of plans around the Severn Estuary
– advising the community of what Local Planning Authorities can, and cannot do
• Best practice examples of climate change adaptation
• Greater government planning guidance on climate change
• Evidence Base:
– Improved knowledge of socio-economic impacts of climate change
– Greater frequency of updates of WAG Development Advice Maps (Wales)
– Improved knowledge of local renewable energy generation potential
• Resourcing to support adaptation measures and work by local
government and government agencies involved in flood risk
 Severn Estuary Planners’
Adaptation Wish List
• Greater funding to support a range of adaptation measures, e.g.
– retrofitting of existing buildings: “the elephant in the room”
– relocating coastal communities
• Greater scientific certainty about climate change and coastal change
• Continue to defend in areas where there are already defences in place
• Integrated Coastal Zone Management
• Maintaining nature conservation (i.e. Natura2000 sites)
• Greater government steer on climate change and more prescriptive
guidance

“…too short- “…have the evidence to

termist, should influence change…”
“…would go back two-three
be thinking more
hundred years, wouldn’t have built
radically…”
on drained areas of land, sadly
can’t change what’s there…”
Phase Two
Key Messages Questions Raised
• Vulnerability to flooding is the critical
• How to address anxieties concerning
issue facing Severn Estuary Planning
flooding?
Bodies in adapting to climate change at
the coast • Do there need to be greater
• Growing number of plans & strategies = interlinkages between the planning
complex, congested policy space
system & SMP/ FRMS?
• Primacy of plans & arising actions for
planning bodies is unclear • How to encourage greater cross-
– Planners need clarity on the actions they
need to take arising from emerging plans border working on estuary wide
• Inherited coastal development legacies & issues, such as climate change?
community desire to remain = major
challenge for planning & FCERM
Future Severn Estuary
IMCORE Work
Future Activities include:
• Delphi survey (Summer – Autumn 2010)
• Scenarios workshops (Autumn 2010)
• Guidelines for Severn Estuary climate change adaptation (2011)
Thank you

Dr Rhoda Ballinger

BallingerRC@Cf.ac.uk