Gold Rate Prediction

Using Machine
Learning Techniques
By: Abhishek V
Ajay V Raikar
Harshith D Chawan
Guide: Dr. Nirmala C R Mallikarjun Holennavar
Co-Guide: Prof. Naveen Kumar K R
 Objectives
• To built an interactive web application for prediction of
tomorrow’s gold rate.
• To provide the different statistical models to give an overview to
user about gold rates variations across different regions.
• To build the predictor according to the international MCX
standards.
• To understand and discover the various factors affecting gold rate
fluctuation.
• To minimize the errors between the actual gold rate and predicted
rate in turn to build an efficient prediction model.
Methodology
Receiving Real time data
(www.investing.com)

Updating weights and

Training our model using
parameters to minimize
data set
error

Predicting the future

Comparing predicted
prices based on the
values with actual values
current data

Display current and

predicted value
 Dataset Description

• This data set is created via multiple sources, such as Gold petals, MCX ETF’s etc.
• It contains ETF prices of Gold, silver, copper, crude oil, ETF exchange rates.
• The historical data of Gold ETF fetched from Yahoo finance has 7 columns, Date,
Open, High, Low, Close, Adjusted Close and Volume .
• Data for this study is collected from December 14th 2011 to April 4th 2019 from
various sources
 Dataset Pre-processing

• Most of the data was in non-readable format.

•Appropriate formatting was done along with matching rows of

multiple datasets.
•Finally, all NA values were removed from the dataset.
Final Dataset
Algorithms used
 Scatter Plots
• A scatter plot is a two-dimensional data visualization that uses dots to represent the
values obtained for two different variables - one plotted along the x-axis and the
other plotted along the y-axis.

• Scatter plots are used when you want to show the relationship between two
variables. Here we use scatter plots to find out the nature of the relation between
gold and other factors affecting gold rates.

• In the same manner we figured out the relation of gold percentage with other
attributes percentages
(a)Gold vs silver (b)Gold vs Copper

(c)Gold vs Oil (d)Gold vs Exchange

Time series • This graph shows that gold is stationary with time
• Gold rates fluctuates as per demands
• Gold rates are independent of time
 Heat Map

• A heat map is a graphical representation of data where the individual

values contained in a matrix are represented as colors.

• They use color to communicate relationships between data values that

would be would be much harder to understand if presented
numerically in a spreadsheet.

• Here heat map is used so that a we could easily find the correlation
between different commodities, and get to know how much they are
related to each other via ranges and colors .
Heat Map
 Correlation graph that affects gold rates

• In this graph it depicts the range of different commodities and their

attributes how they are affected to gold rates.

• Here graph above the axis represents positively correlated to gold

rates.

• And the graph which are below the axis represents negatively
correlated to gold rates.

• It also depicts what factors of attributes are affecting and how much
they are affecting to gold rates.
 Implementation
• RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)
• Linear Regression – RMSE: ₹27 approx.
• Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines -RMSE:₹27
approx.

• XG BOOST - RMSE: ₹9 approx.

• Gaussian Naïve Bayes - RMSE: ₹5 approx.
• We compare predicted output with actual prices.
Observed v/s Predicted
User Interface
 To-Do
• Handle the ML Model output.

• Represent the final output in UI.

• Trying out other algorithm related one.

• Adding Project Description to UI.

 Conclusion

• Gold is a precious metal that is a necessary metric for a

country’s economy.
• Gold also is a safe but unstable investment option for
investors and common folk alike.
• Our goal is to build a predictive model that forecasts future
gold prices.
• An application will display the predicted price and the current
price.
THANK YOU