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Ekonomi Makro Islam - 1. Pengantar Ekonomi Makro Indonesia
Ekonomi Makro Islam - 1. Pengantar Ekonomi Makro Indonesia
Ekonomi Makro Islam - 1. Pengantar Ekonomi Makro Indonesia
INDONESIA
3
EKONOMI
INDONESIA
DALAM
FENOMENA
GLOBALISASI
Characteristics of Globalization Era;
• Capitalism is historically rooted in international trade
• Division of labour on the international scale
• Movement of goods, money, people between countries creates
a global network of economic ties
• A global capitalist economy gradually emerges as a result of
integration of national economies into a single world system
• Key role of states in its creation and development
• First leader – Holland (17th-18th centuries), then - Great Britain
(18th - 19th centuries)
• Challenged by others (France, Germany), displaced by the
United States in the 20th century
The Great Silk Road, 3d century BCE – 15th century CE
Global trade and capital flows, 1400-1800
Global trade in consumer goods
WORD POPULATION
FACTS
Trend of Population Distribution by Island
100%
90%
Lainnya
80%
70%
Sulawesi
60%
30%
Jawa &
20% Madura
18% 19% 20% 20% 21%
10%
14% 16% Sumatera
0%
2.0% 1.7%
1.3%
-0.3%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0% 6.0% 4.3% 4.6%
3.5%
2011 2012 2013 - 4.0%
2016 2.0%
• Asia 6.0% 3.1 4.0
%
4.7
%
0.0%
%
• Australasia 4.0%
2.0%
2011 2012 2013 -
2016
• North Africa and Middle East 0.0%
2011 2012 2013 -
• Sub-Saharan Africa 2016
• Western Europe 4.5% 4.3% 4.2% 6.0% 4.4% 4.8%
3.8%
• and • North America 4.0% 3.6% 4.0%
8.0
6.0
4.9
4.0 3.8
3.0
GDP groth (% p.a)
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
World Transition economies Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
The global economy is on a narrow path of slow and fragile Oil and commodity prices remain high and will continue to put
recovery. Many countries are struggling with a massive debt further pressure on the global economy
burden and high unemployment persisting to bog down their
economies and hampering growth.
Global outlook
6.0
4.0 4.2
GDP groth (% p.a)
3.0
2.0 2.3
1.6
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
World North America Western Europe Asia & Australasia (incl Japan) Latin America
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) March economic outlook, world GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% on
a market exchange rates basis in 2012, slowing down markedly from the previous two years.
Changes in global economic risks
Compounded annual
growth rate consumption
Source: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050, World Energy Council (values in mn tonnes)
Energy intensity
300
200
100
World
Latin America
Western Europe
Sub-Saharan Africa
North America
Asia and Australiasia
East-Central Europe
3% 1%
45% 25%
Power- $16.9 trillion
26%
10 10
5 5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Problem besar APBN adalah ketidakberdayaan aparat birokrasi membelanjakan APBN secara
tepat waktu. Akibatnya, stimulus fiskal menjadi lemah. Pertumbuhan ekonomi menjadi tidak
optimal.
*) Sumber: A. Tony Prasetiantono, Ph.D dalam , dalam Ceramah Umum Dies Natalis ke-57 , Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis
Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, 10 September 2012
Ekonomi kita…..
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Asia Tenggara, 2011
Indonesia termasuk sangat prudent dalam pengelolaan fiskal, terutama dalam hal utang.
Yunani bangkrut karena rasio utang pemerintah terhadap PDB mencapai 170%. Indonesia cuma
25,7%.
Meski rasio Jepang tinggi (200%), namun perekonomian Jepang stabil. Mungkin hal ini
disebabkan Gross National Product (GNP) Jepang lebih tinggi daripada Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). Indonesia sebaliknya.
Ekonomi kita…..
Indikator Ekonomi Makro Utama
( %) ( %) INFLATION RATE (% )
8 GDP GROWTH 16
7 6.9
6.3 6.5 6.3 12.1
6 12
5.2 5.8
5 4.5
8 8.2
4 7.0
4.0 6.65
3 5.8 5.54
5.1 4.61 4.5
3.7 3.79 3.65 3.97
4
2 3.4
3.56
2.8
1
0
0
Jan
Mar
Apr
Feb
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mar
Apr
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Feb
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Jan
Mar
Apr
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Feb
May
All Growth all Growth PB
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ekonomi kita…..
10% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IDR EXCHANGE RATE AGAINST USD
13,500
12,000 11,555
9%
8.39%
10,500
8.14% 9,665
8.46%
8% 9,100 9,191
9,065 9,010 9,068
9,000
7.41% 9,205 9,144
7.87% 8,925
7.14% 8,576
7% 6.80%
7,500
6.56%
6.32%
6,000
Jan
Mar
Apr
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Feb
6%
Feb'08 Aug'08 Feb'09 Aug'09 Feb'10 Aug'10 Feb'11 Aug'11 Feb'12 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
STOCK INDEX
4,500 4,181
4,000 3,889 3,822
4,122
3,500
3,501 3,985
3,549
3,000
500
Jan
Mar
Apr
Feb
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
107.1
110
104.93
Coal Price Reference (HBA)
100.59 103.02
98.83 99.56 125
100 96.77 122.0
95.7 93.32
91.16
120 119.0 118.2 116.7
117.2
90 85.37 116.3
119.2
117.6 112.7
79.2 115 111.6 112.9
80
109.3
110
70 105.6
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 105
Source: Nasdaq
100
95
Apr-11 May- Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug- Sep- Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec- Jan-12 Feb- Mar- Apr-12
11 11 11 11 12 12
1,400
CPO Price
1,300
900
800
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
Ekonomi kita…..
BI Rate and Headline Inflation
Ekonomi kita…..
Inflasi Masih Rendah karena Subsidi BBM Besar
Ekonomi kita…..
Neraca Perdagangan Tertekan Sangat Kuat
250
203.5
200
157.73
150 136.66
125.34 135.61
113.63 115.82 117.44 113.11 112.78
100.36
93.25
100 73.87
60.55
50
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Juli 2012
Ekspor Impor
Untuk pertama kalinya neraca perdagangan mengalami defisit USD 600 juta (April), dan USD 486
juta (Mei) dan USD 1,32 miliar (Juni). Penyebabnya: penurunan harga komoditas primer dan
kenaikan impor barang modal dan impor minyak.
Ekonomi kita…..
PDB Dunia (nominal dan PPP), 2011
Ekonomi kita…..
PDB Asia Tenggara, 2010
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Vietnam
Myanmar
Brunei D.
Cambodia
Lao Republic
Timor-Leste
0.000 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 800.000
APBN-P 2011 RAPBN 2012
A. Pendapatan Negara dan Hibah 1.169.914,6 1.292.877,7
I. Penerimaan Dalam Negeri 1.165.252,5 1.292.052,6
1. Penerimaan Perpajakan 878.685,2 1.019.332,4
a. Pajak Dalam Negeri 831.745,3 976.898,8
b. Pajak Perdagangan Internasional 46.939,9 42.433,6
2. Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak 286.567,3 272.720,2
II. Hibah 4.662,1 825,1
B. Belanja Negara 1.320.751,3 1.418.497,7
I. Belanja Pemerintah Pusat 908.243,4 954.136,8
1. K/L 461.508,0 476.610,2
2. Non K/L 446.735,4 477.526,7
II. Transfer ke Daerah 412.507,9 464.360,9
1. Dana Perimbangan 347.538,6 394.138,6
2. Dana Otonomi Khusus dan Penyesuaian 64.969,3 70.222,3
III. Suspen 0,0 0,0
C. Keseimbangan Primer (44.252,9) (2.548,1)
D. Surplus/Defisit Anggaran (A-B) (150.836,7) (125.620,0)
% terhadap PDB (2,1) (1,5)
E. Pembiayaan 150.836,7 125.620,0
I. Pembiayaan Dalam Negeri 153.613,3 125.912,3
II. Pembiayaan Luar Negeri (netto) (2.776,6) (292,3)
GDP Growth
10
6.35 6.01 4.63 6.22 6.49 6.23
Percentage (%) of GDP
-10
-13.13
-15
Indonesia GDP World GDP
42
Looking to the long term,
Indonesia will become a high income country
PREPARATION ACCELERATION CONTINUATION
Russia 15,7%
Indonesia 14,5%
China 12,4%
India 12,1%
Brazil 11,7%
Turkey 9,9%
USA 4,1%
Japan 4,0%
Source : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011
Indonesia’s economy will become more dominant in ASEAN and
larger than several countries in Europe
Indonesia Economic Growth (nominal)
(USD Billion)
CAGR 14.5%
Indonesia’s economy as % of
European Countries:
Spain 50% 60% 91%
Source:International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011; Proyeksi Ekonomi Indonesia 2011 – 2045; Analisa Tim
Key economic driver
22.87%
12.73% 12.68%
7.63%
5.29%
Source : BPS
Potential & Main products from Indonesia
49
Indonesia 2004-2014: Democracy
development
The rise of political democratization
Fair and secure the National Elections 2004, 2009, 2014
Fair and secure local elections in 542 districts
but, then
Conflicts and insatisfaction
Slow progress in economic democratization
End of 2014 and early 2015; high inflation, oil price
fluctuation, scarcity of prime commodities, political
instability……
PROBLEMS:
Unemployment Rate: 6,80% 49,5% elementary school
66% work in informal sector 30,7% under employed
Poverty reduction is slowing down
number of near poor 68 million peoples WB,2014)
40 line)
30
18 17 15
20 14 13 12 11 Poor
10 (Below national
0 poverty line)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013
6 6
5.7 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5 (*)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Lowest 40% Middle 40% Top 20% Gini Ratio (Right Axis)
60 0.45
50
40 0.4
Percent
30
20 0.35
10
0 0.3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Central Board of Statistics
TREND OF POVERTY AND GINI RATIO 2004-2011
400
Real Wage 96
200
- 94
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
GOVERNMENT’S HANDS off: labour-
intensive sectors
Wood and other wood products
Iron and steel basic metal Sectoral Average Annual Growth
Forestry (2004 - Q2/2014)
Other manufacturing products
Cement and non metalic quarrying products
Paper and printing products
Textile, leather products and footwear
Livestock and its products
Estate crops
Fishery
Fertilizers, chemical and rubber products
Food crops
Food, beverages and tobacco
Transport equipment, machinery and apparatus
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Percent
Source: Central Bank of Indonesia
REGIONAL INCOME DISPARITY, 2012
18
West Papua HIGH GROWTH
16 HIGH GROWTH HIGH INCOME
LOW INCOME
14
12
Sulawesi Tenggara
RGDP Growth (%)
10
Maluku Riau
8 DKI Jakarta
6
Maluku Utara
Riau East Kalimantan
4
LOWH GROWTH
2 LOW INCOME Papua LOW GROWTH
HIGH INCOME
0 West Nusa Tenggara
-2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Percapita RGDP (Billion)
Source: Central Board of Statistics
REGIONAL POVERTY & UNEMPLOYMENT, 2012
35
HIGH POVERTY Papua Barat HIGH POVERTY
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
30
Papua
25
East Nusa Tenggara
Poverty (%)
Maluku
20 Bengkulu Gorontalo Aceh
10 West Java
Central Kalimantan East Kalimantan
Banten
North Sulawesi
5 Bali DKI Jakarta
LOW POVERTY LOW POVERTY
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Open Unemployment Rate (%)