URBANISATION AND URBAN TRANSPORT SCENARIO IN INDIA

Presentation at
Short Term Training Programme
Comprehensive Transportation Planning Practices
SVNIT, Surat
13-05-2013

Dr. G.J.Joshi
Associate Professor & Section Head
Transportation Engineering & Planning
Department of Civil Engineering, S.V. National Institute of Technology, Surat
gj@ced.svnit.ac.in
Outline
• Background
• Urbanisation Phenomenon
• Urbanisation Scenario
• Urban Travel Issues
• National Urban Transport Policy

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 Economical
Transportation Need

Political

Military
(Strategic)

Sustenance

……………………………….travel is a derived demand……………………

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 Urbanisation Phenomenon
• Urbanization refers to the proportion of
people in living in cities.
• It also refers to the process in which rural
populations move to urban areas.
• Urbanization refers to all of the cities in a
country, considered as an urban system.
• The urban system is the network of individual
cities within a region or country.

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 Sources of Urbanization
• The urban system of a country grows mainly by:

1. Natural population increase (births – deaths)

2. Migration from rural areas (especially in countries
with large rural populations)
3. Immigration from other countries (especially in
Europe and North America)
4. Reclassification of urban boundaries to encompass
formerly rural areas

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The process of urbanisation involves tension between the
“centripetal” forces that tend to pull population into urban
agglomerations and the “centrifugal” forces that tend to
break up such agglomerations.
Paul Krugman, 1996
 Urbanization in MDCs and LDCs
• MDCs
– Slow pre-industrial growth
– Rapid industrial growth
– Slows again once most
previously rural populations
are in cities
– Europe, North America,
Australia and Japan, the
population is 75% to 80%
urban.
– Canada is 80% urbanized.
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• LDCs
– Rapid urbanization without
proportional industrialization
– By 2020 majority of LDC
population will live in urban
areas of 1 million+
– By 2020 most megacities of
10 million+ will be in LDCs
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Urban and Rural Population,
Less Developed Countries
1950 to 2025

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 % of population living
in urban areas in
major world regions,
1950, 1975, 2000 and 2025

Cities are engines of economic growth

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Increasing city populations: Urban and rural population by development regions (in millions)

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2009
Revision STTP-CTTP 10
Share of World Population Growth Urban and Rural Areas LDCs and
MDCs 1950 to 2025

• Over the next quarter century, increases in urbanization will be almost entirely attributable to sub-
Saharan Africa and Asia
 Population share (%) in Continents

Region 2000 2021

Asia 59.1 58.2
Africa 14.0 18.9
America 13.3 12.4
Europe 13.1 10.1
Russia & 0.5 0.5
Others
 Urban Growth is Speeding Up!!!!!!

Time required to reach 2 million population:

Rome, Italy 2000 years

Vienna, Austria 400 years
Vancouver, B.C. 115 years
Shenzhen, China 20 years

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Cities with 10 million or more people
2015

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 Urban Population Growth : Spatial Distribution

04

Growth Pattern

20

22

Source: Marshall, J. 2005 STTP-CTTP 15

 Components of Urban Population Increase
(1991-2011)

1 Natural Increase in Base year Population 59.40 %

2. Population of New Town 6.20 %

3. Increase due to expansion in urban 9.70 %

area/agglomeration
4. Rural-Urban Migration 24.70 %
Urban share of total population - 2011 (%)
87
83
78

48
42.5

31

Gujarat India Indonesia China Mexico Korea Brazil

Source: United Nations and Government of India

Presentation by Based on Dr. Isher Judge Ahluwalia

17
 Urbanisation Scenario : India

Parameter 1951 2001 2011

Population (million) 361 1027 1200

Urban Population 62.4 285 377

(million)
Metropolitan Cities 5 35 41

Metro Population 3.3% 10.5% 12.6%

(% of Total Population)
Metro Population 18.8% 37.8% 39%
(% of Urban Population)
Ave. Population / Metro 2.35 mill. 3.08 mill. 3.12 mill.

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 Urbanisation Trend

Population Growth Rate (% per annum) Urban-Rural

Year Growth Rate
Total Rural Urban Difference

1951-1961 1.96 1.87 2.35 0.48

1961-1971 2.22 1.98 3.24 1.25
1971-1981 2.20 1.76 3.80 2.04
1981-1991 2.14 1.82 3.12 1.30
1991-2001 1.93 1.66 2.70 1.04
2001-2011 1.78 1.64 2.70 1.06
 Urbanisation: Past & Future

2001 2051
Population (million) 1027 1732

285 820
Urbanisation (million)
(27.8 %) (47.5 %)

No. of Urban Centres 3969 6500

No. of Class I cities (> 0.1

431 1000
million)

No. of Metropolitan Cities 35 100

No. of Mega Cities 3 15

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 India - Urbanisation
Urbanisation is an inevitable outcome of development process
– Urban India with 377 million people account for 31% of the total
population
– By 2031, 600 million people about 40% population will live in
India
– Second Largest Urban System - 8000 towns and cities
– Most cities are likely to double their population and more than
double their area before they reach stable growth
– About 50% of urban population to live in 70 no. of Mill+
population Cities
– Another 70 no of 5 lakh+ Popn. Cities will also face severe
transport perspective
– Urbanisation is accompanied by income growth
– Rapid motorisation to follow
 Societal Objective

Wealth
Generation:
ECONOMIC
GROWTH

INSUSTRIALISATION

URBAN
TRANSPORTATION
INFRASTRUCTURE
URBANISATION

URBAN
HOUSING
INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH IN-……
POPULATION DENSITY
VEHICULAR POPULATION
AREA OF CITY
HUMAN ACTIVITY

URBANISATION CYCLE
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 Urbanization & the population question

Source: Marshall, J. 2005 STTP-CTTP 23

Where do we go from here?
Urban Evolution of Surat

Year Area in Population

Sq.Km
1951 8.18 223182
1961 8.18 288026
1971 33.85 471656
1981 55.56 776583
1991 111.16 1498817
2001 112.27 2433785
2001* 326.51 2877241
2004-2006 AD 2004-2006 AD 2011 326.51 ~ 44 Lakhs

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 Urban Travel
• Increase in trip rate
• Increase in motorised travel
• Increase in total travel

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URBAN TRANSPORTATION: SOME
TYPICAL SCENES

Source: Google.com
Allahabad Jaipur

Kanpur Surat
 Kanpur

Allahabad
 India – Urbanisation – Impact on Transport & Sustainability
Economic Growth - Urbanisation - Increase in Travel Demand
– More Travellers (Million)
Mumbai Jakarta
1980 - 10 1985 – 14
2005 – 21 2002 - 23
– More Trips (Because trip rate will increase) - Jakarta
• HH Income Low Middle High
• Trips per person 1.87 2.21 2.3
– Longer Trips -kms - Jakarta
Work Trips Education Trips
1985 – 6.7 2.7
2002 - 9.6 5.5
– Mode Shift – NMV & Public-> 2-wheeler-> Car
– Source: based on Jose A. Gomez
 Urban Mobility Trend

• Per Capita Trip Rate (PCTR) - Motorised Vehicles

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 Urban Sprawl &Trip Length

Average Trip Length(km) vs Urban Sprawl (sqkm)

12.0
Hyderabad Bengaluru

10.0
Kolkata Delhi

Chennai
Agra
8.0 Jaipur
Kochi Ahmedabad
6.0 Pune
Lucknow y = -4E-06x2 + 0.0108x + 3.97
R² = 0.7281
4.0
Rajkot
Amritsar
2.0

0.0
0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0 1200.0 1400.0 1600.0

Average Trip Length Poly. (Average Trip Length )

 Urban Sprawl &Vehicle Km Travelled (VKT)

Average Vehicle-kms vs Urban Sprawl (sqkm)

45000000.0

40000000.0
Delhi

35000000.0

30000000.0

25000000.0
Bengaluru
20000000.0
Hyderabad y = 9.1695x2 + 15240x + 461913
R² = 0.9701
15000000.0
Chennai
10000000.0
Jaipur
5000000.0
Ahmedabad
Pune
Varanasi 0.0 Lucknow
0.0
Madurai 200.0
Kochi 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0 1200.0 1400.0 1600.0

Average Vehicle-kms Poly. (Average Vehicle-kms)

Vehicle kms and Accidents

Accident vs Vehicle-kms
y = 0.0002x + 1538.8
12000
R² = 0.7167
10000

Bengaluru Delhi
8000
Chennai
ACCIDENTS

6000

4000 Bhopal
Hyderabad
Kochi Ahmedabad
2000 Jaipur
Pune
Nagpur
Kanpur
Madhurai
0
0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 30000000 35000000 40000000 45000000
VEHICLE-KMS

Accident Linear (Accident)

 MODE SHIFT
Trends in Vehicle and Car ownership in different countries
1200 1106 1200
984
1000 923 1000
860
800 749 800
611 894
567 765
600 600
463
609
400 400
214 234 245 249 444
338 367 370 365
200 291 296 200
105 116 117 127 131
0 0
1980 1990 2001 2005 2011 1980 1990 2001 2005 2011 1980 1990 2001 2005 2011
Singaporean cities (Singapore) European cities(London) American Cities(New York)

Vehicle ownership Car ownership

VEHICLE OWNERSHIP (CARS/1000 persons) – Registered Vehicles

Delhi – 117
Ahmedabad – 50
Bangalore - 50
Chennai - 45
Mumbai - 25

Urban Transport Management

 Urban Landuse - Transport Scenario
Cities are Sprawling Environmental Degradation
Declining Public Transport & NMT, Low Investments
Supply Side Focus Poor Enforcement
Multiple Institutions Education of People

Urban Transport Focus – Since 2006 (NUTP & JnNURM)

 CITIES ARE SPRAWLING HYDERABAD BANGALORE AHMEDABAD
Population Density (persons/sqkm ) 17441
10526 9378
Population Density (Urban Sprawl in 15574
6265 5869
persons/sqkm)
Arterial road Density 1.47 1.40 1.85
Public transport Use 48% 51 24%
NMV Use 21% 24% 32%
Trip Length (total) km 10.5 11 5.7
Vehicle km/capita 10.81 8.90 6.4
Road fatalities per year 518 865 263

POPULATION (Million) (2011) 8.5 8.5 6.0

Surat With No Public Transport
 Travel characteristics
Distribution Of Trips By Mode
Others
Other
2% 2%

Autorickshaw
Autorickshaw Walk
21% 21% Walk
36% Walk Education
Education
36% 39%
Bus/Rail
39%
Bicycle Car
Bicycle 10%
10%
Two-Wheeler
Bus/Rail
1%
Work
Work
Bicycle
52% 52%
Autorickshaw
Car Others
1% Shopping
Tw o-Wheeler 7%
29%

Distribution of Trips By Mode Estimated Trips By Purpose

Trip Characteristics 2016 2026

- Total Trip Rate : 1.31 PCTR Excl. 1.0 1.2
- Motorized Trip Rate : 0.78 walk -
Average Trip Length : 5.3 km Total Veh.Trips 54.0 lacs 102 lacs
Motorized Trip Length : 5.7 km Public 25% 40%
Transport
Trip Rate Comparison by City Population in
India Urban Travel Pattern in
Population Range
India
RITE,1994* WSA,2007*
(In lakh)
<5 0.77-0.89 0.76
5-10 0.57-1.00 0.81-1.02
10-20 0.89-1.10 0.92-1.25
20-40 1.10-1.20 1.20-1.29
40-80 1.20-1.35 1.30-1.50 Trip Length by City Size in India
Above 80 1.25-1.40 1.41-1.67 (2007)
*(tpcd) City Size (Population) Average Trip Length (km)
< 5 Lakh with plain terrain 2.4
< 5 Lakh with hilly terrain 2.5
5-10 Lakhs 3.5
10-20 Lakhs 4.7
20-40 Lakhs 5.7
40-80 Lakhs 7.2
>80 Lakhs 10.4
(Source: MoUD)
National 7.7
 Mode Share in Indian City in Percentage(2007)

City Size Public

Walk Cycle Two Wheeler Car IPT
(Population) Transport
< 5 Lakh with
34 3 26 5 27 5
plain terrain
< 5 Lakh with
57 1 6 8 28 0
hilly terrain
5-10 Lakhs 32 20 24 9 12 3
10-20 Lakhs 24 19 24 13 12 8
20-40 Lakhs 25 18 29 10 12 6
40-80 Lakhs 25 11 26 21 10 7
>80 Lakhs 22 8 9 44 10 7
National 28 11 16 27 13 6

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Population and Vehicular Growth in India

3000

2500
Population (Millions)

2000
Vehicle (100s)

1500

1000

500

0
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011* 2021*
* Forecasted Values
Year

Total Population Urban Population Total Vehicles (100s)

Source: Census of India Statistics, 2001; Census of India, 2001; MORTH, 2010
Transit Use by City Size
45%
40%
35%
30%
Transit Trips

25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
50000 100000 500000 1000000
Population

Captive Riders Choice Riders

Source: VTPI, 2011

Desirable Public Transport Mode Share in
Indian Cities
90
80
70
Mode Share (%)

60
50
Public Transport (Existing)
40
Public Transport (Desirable)
30 Bicycle (Existing)
20 Bicycle ( Desirable)
10
0
0.1-0.5 0.5-1.0 1.0-2.0 2.0-5.0 5.0 plus

Population (millions)

Source: Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India, New Delhi, March 1998
 PROJECTED TRAVEL DEMAND ( PERSONS KM / DAY)

CITY 2001 2021 GROWTH

CATEGORY (TIMES)
A 149.43 453.25 3.04
B 90.42 309.57 3.42
C 148.66 227.23 1.52
D 132.07 347.08 2.63
E 97.22 270.30 2.78
F 420.99 903.80 2.15
TOTAL 1038.80 2511.23 2.41
SOURCE – RITES (1998)

 A ( 0.1 – 0.25), B ( 0.25 – 0.5), C ( 0.5 – 1.0 ), D (1 – 2),

E ( 2 – 5 ), F >> 5 million
Demand increases by 7.5 lacs pass.km / day for increase of 1 lac pop.

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Are we ready to meet the future demand?????

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Inclusive Mobility & Universal Accessibility?

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National Urban Transport Policy (2006)

Objective

‘’ To ensure safe, affordable,

quick, comfortable, reliable
& sustainable access for
growing number of city
residents to jobs, education,
recreation & such other
needs within the cities’’
Realizing the policy objective…
Financing.

Innovative
Role of Para-
Financing
transit.
mechanism.

Priority to non-
Use of cleaner
motorised
technologies.
transport.

Capacity
Parking.
building.

Legal and
Administrative Freight traffic.
issues.
Integrating land use & transport planning
Design of city should be
considering specific
features of the city.
(population, area,
topography, economic
activities, income levels
Etc)

Future growth be around

Providing partial finance the pre-planned
for the study for integrating
transport planning & land
transport network to
use planning. avoid uncontrolled
sprawl.

Urban development &

Govt. support for pilot planning bodies should
study of sample cities. have in house transport
planners.
 Equitable allocation of road space

Present allocation of space is keeping focus on

vehicle and not people.

Hence lower income group suffers in terms of

higher travel time & higher travel cost.

Safety threats to non-motorised modes.

Hence planning will be with people as focus (by

reserving lanes & corridors for public transport &
non-motorised vehicle)

Acts pertaining to enforce lane discipline & lane

reservation.
Public transport occupies Central Govt. would
less road space, causes promote investment in
less pollution per public transport as well as
passenger-km and is measures to make public
more sustainable. transport more attractive.

Priority to the
use of Public
Transport

Studies to be carried
Planning be to suit the
about various proven
city requirement of next
technologies around the
30 years.
world
 In Conclusion….Urban Transportation Issues

• Congestion • Mobility & Accessibility

Higher traffic volumes
compared to capacity
* Road links & Junctions
• Ancillary Impacts
* Foot paths
* Transit Systems
* Parking
* Mix mode operation
Quality of Service
Equal ability to travel
Equal access to transport system
Accidents
Energy Consumption
Land Consumption
Environmental Impacts
Disruption of Urban Fabric
Aesthetics

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 Thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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