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Fabio S A Lecture 12 Capital and Financial Market
Fabio S A Lecture 12 Capital and Financial Market
Markets
Fall 2005
Capital and Financial Markets
2
Capital and Financial Markets
3
Physical Capital and the Firm’s
Investment Decision
4
A First, Simple Approach
5
Why the Simple Approach Usually Fails
7
The Value of Future Dollars
• Discounting
– Converting a future value into its present-day equivalent
• Discount rate
– Interest rate used in computing present values
• Present value of a future payment is smaller if
– Size of the payment is smaller
– Interest rate is larger
– Payment is received later
• Logic of present value shows why anyone who expects to
receive a stream of future payments must discount each of
those payments before adding them together
8
The Firm’s Demand for Capital
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What Happens When Things Change:
The Investment Curve
• Investment—firms’ purchases of new capital over some
period of time
• At high interest rates, U.S. firms end up buying less of all
different kinds of capital
• Thus, as interest rate rises, each firm will place a lower
value on additional capital and decide to purchase less of
it
– In economy as a whole, a rise in interest rate causes a decrease in
investment expenditures
• Lower interest rates increase firms’ investment in physical
capital
– Causing capital stock to be larger, and overall standard of living to
be higher
10
Figure 1: The Investment Curve
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Investment in Human Capital
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General Versus Specific Human Capital
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General Versus Specific Human Capital
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The Decision to Invest in General Human
Capital
• How do individuals make decision to acquire their own general human
capital?
• To the worker that possesses it, human capital is an asset that
generates higher income in the future
– Therefore, benefit of any given human capital investment is equal to total
present value of additional future income
• Investment in human capital is inversely related to interest rate
– The lower the interest rate, the greater the benefits of any human capital
investment, and the more human capital workers will want to acquire
• Lower interest rates encourage individuals to invest in general human
capital
– Total amount of human capital—and overall standard of living—will be
higher if interest rates are lower
15
Financial Markets
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The Bond Market
• Maturity date
– Date at which a bond’s principal amount will be paid to
bond’s owner
• Pure discount bond
– Promises no payments except for principal it pays at
maturity
• Coupon payments
– Series of periodic payments that a bond promises
before maturity
• Yield
– Rate of return a bond earns for its owner
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How Much is a Bond Worth?
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How Much Is A Bond Worth?
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Bond Prices and Bond Yields
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Primary and Secondary Bond Markets
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Primary and Secondary Bond Markets
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Why Do Bond Prices (and Bond Yields)
Differ?
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Why Do Bond Prices (and Bond Yields)
Differ?
• To put a value on riskier bonds, markets
participants use a higher discount rate than on
safe bonds
– Leads to lower total present values and lower prices for
riskier bonds
– With lower prices, riskier bonds have higher yields
• Riskiness is only one reason that bond prices and
bond yields differ
– Other reasons include
• Differences in maturity dates
• Differences in frequency of coupon payments
• Because one bond is more widely traded (and therefore easier
to sell on short notice) than another
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The Stock Market
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The Stock Market
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Primary and Secondary Stock Markets
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Direct and Indirect Ownership of Stock
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Why Do People Hold Stock?
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Valuing a Share of Stock
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Reading the Stock Pages
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Reading the Stock Pages
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Figure 2: Stock Market Table for Trading
on July 8, 2003
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Reading the Stock Pages
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Reading the Stock Pages
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Explaining Stock Prices
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Figure 3: The Market for FedEx
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Figure 4: An Increase in Demand for
Shares of FedEx
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Explaining Stock Prices
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The Economic Role of Financial Markets
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Facilitating Large-Scale Production
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Reallocating Spending Across Time
• Financial markets allow firms to invest in new projects today rather than
waiting until the necessary funds accumulate from current operations
– Something similar is true for individual households
• Financial markets allow them to reallocate their consumption over time
• When you open a savings account, buy a bond, or invest in a mutual
fund
– You are reducing your consumption today in order to enjoy greater
consumption in the future
• Financial markets reallocate funds from
– Surplus units
• Mostly individuals who are not consuming their entire incomes today
– To deficit units
• Mostly firms that desire to spend more than their current income today
– Markets help individuals, firms, and even government, to achieve best
intertemporal utilization of resources
44
Reducing Risk
• Prices of stocks and bonds serve several important functions that are
not immediately obvious
– Provide instantaneous feedback that allows corporate managers to see
how they are doing
• If stock price increases, and there has been no change in the discount
rate
– Means thousands of investors are—collectively—giving a vote of
confidence in those policies
• If price decreases
– Means investors are voting with their dollars against the way firm is being
managed
• By checking prices of your competitors’ shares, you can form at least a
rough estimate of what market is willing to pay for your shares
– Once you begin to participate in the stock market
• Existing share price will give you an indication of how much money you can
raise by selling additional shares
45
Using the Theory: Can Anyone Predict
Stock Prices?
• Economists as a rule, don’t believe that
anyone can do much better than you—an
introductory economics student—reading
this book and finding out about stock market
for first time
– No matter how smart
– No matter how much research they do
46
Using the Theory—Predicting Stock
Prices: Fundamental Analysis
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Using the Theory—Predicting Stock
Prices: Technical Analysis
• Idea is that, by graphing recent behavior of a stock’s
price
– Can predict whether stock is going to increase or
decrease in value over the near future
– Based on certain patterns
• Technical analysts believe that stocks move in
trends
– Have numerous, colorful names for the patterns they claim
to see
– Each market participant has to determine what other
participants are going to do
• Daunting task that some people think can be handled by looking
for patterns in stock prices
48
Using the Theory—The Economist’s
View: Efficient Markets Theory
• While economists believe that fundamental and technical
analysis can often explain stock price movements in the
past, they are extremely skeptical about anyone’s ability to
predict stock price changes in the future
• Implications of the efficient markets view are startling
– You cannot, on average, beat the market by doing research and
finding and buying under priced (or selling over priced) stocks
• According to efficient markets view of stock market
– Any information that can be used to predict a stock’s future
earnings will be incorporated into stock’s price as soon as it
becomes publicly available
– By the time a fundamental analyst predicts that a stock’s price will
rise or fall, it has already risen or fallen
• Fundamental analysis cannot help you outperform market
49
Using the Theory—The Economist’s
View: Efficient Markets Theory
50
Using the Theory—The Economist’s
View: Efficient Markets Theory
• Efficient market theory tells us that the only information that affects the
stock market is surprise information
– New announcement of a major technological breakthrough, or even new
information that suggests a firm might achieve such a breakthrough
• Why do we spend so much effort learning how stock prices are
determined, only to then learn that their changes are random?
– It is because so much effort is put into figuring out what price stocks
should sell for that price changes are random
• Theory of efficient markets is one of most exhaustively tested theories
in all of economics
– Thousands of studies have confirmed efficiency of stock prices with
respect to all sorts of information
– You can’t beat the market—period!
51
Using the Theory—The Economist’s
View: Efficient Markets Theory
• Evidence shows that outperforming the market in one year makes an
analyst no more or less likely to outperform market the next year
• Although idea of efficient markets is sweeping and rules out a great
many investment strategies as worthless
– Implications for the investor who understands it can be quite valuable
• Just because you can’t outperform the market doesn’t mean you shouldn’t invest
in the market at all
– Average stock’s price, over long periods of time, tends to rise
• If someone asks you to pay for their stock-picking advice, don’t
– Can do just as well by picking stocks on your own
» Even if you pick them randomly
• Because you have to pay commissions when you trade stocks, you should trade
as little as possible
• Choose a diversified portfolio with different stocks that tend not to rise and fall
together
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