PREDICTING HEALTH SUPPLEMENT CONSUMPTION

USING ANT COLONY OPTIMIZATION

ABSTRACT
Health supplement market in Malaysia shows an increasing demand due to the increasing number of consumers. One of the reasons is due to changes in the perception
and behaviour towards health supplement product. Since the acceptance of health supplement in Malaysia is quite overwhelming, it is vital for the pharmaceutical
companies to target the right group of consumers in order for the companies to ensure healthy profits for their business. This study is an advantage to the local
companies supplying health supplement as it focuses on predicting consumer tendency in consuming health supplement products. This study has developed a
classification model to predict health supplement consumption. The classification model was developed using Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm to produce rule
induction. The data for training was collected using survey questionnaires conducted in UiTM Perlis. The results for this study showed that Ant-Miner obtain better
accuracy as compared to J48.

PROBLEM STATEMENT METHODOLOGY

1. Data Pre-processing
The growth and evolution in pharmaceuticals products industry has resulted in The survey data must Pre-processed first before it will be run into the Ant-
the growth of counterfeit products. It is significant to predict health Miner.
supplements consumption to overcome the competition of selling health
supplements products and can foster awareness of harmful effects used of 2. Model Development
counterfeit products. First step: Calculate entropy values,

Second step: Calculate heuristic values,

OBJECTIVES Third step: Calculate Probability ,
The main objective of the study is to develop a classification model to predict health
supplement consumption. 3. Model Validation
The specific objectives are: a) Pheromone update
1. To pre-process the dataset First step: Calculate Quality of a Rule,
2. To train data using Ant Colony Optimization
3. To validate the classification model Second step: Calculate Pheromone update,

b) Normalization
SCOPE OF STUDY Dividing the value of each by the summation value of all .

The survey was conducted in UiTM Perlis which involved 249 respondents. This
study deals with health supplement consumption among university students
where the recorded data were generated from questionnaire survey. The survey
consists of demographic characteristic and psychographic dimension among
RESULT
students.
88
87

SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY 86
Accuracy (%)

85
84

This study aims to predict health supplement consumptions tendency among 83

82
consumers in Malaysia. It focuses on identifying consumers’ demographic and 81
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
psychographic characteristics with regards to health supplement and provide Number of Ants

pharmaceutical companies information about consumers’ trend these days. As a 6

result, the pharmaceutical companies which supply health supplements are able 5.9
5.8
to target the right group of consumers to purchase health supplements from their 5.7
Rule Number

5.6
companies. 5.5
5.4
5.3

LITERATURE REVIEW 5.2

5.1
5
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Number of Ants
Title Ant Colony Data Mining with Ant Colony
11
Optimization Optimization Algorithm
10.5
Conditions Number

Authors Dorigo and Stützle Parpinelli et al. (2002) 10

(2004) 9.5

Objective Introduce Ant Colony Extract classification rules from data 9

Optimization 8.5

8
Methodology Ant Colony Ant-Miner and CN2 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Number of Ants
Optimization Algorithm
Findings and Results It is now considered one Ant-Miner is competitive with CN2 in Results:
of the most promising term of predicting accuracy but Ant Miner
 The accuracy of the Ant-Miner is 87.13 %.
approaches to the is more simple to discover rule.
approximate solution of
 The number of rule for Ant-Miner is 5.3.
difficult optimization  The number of conditions is 9.
problem.

CONCLUSION
 The selection of good technique is very important to get good prediction
result. RECOMMENDATIONS
 The Ant-Miner algorithm has better accuracy than J48 algorithm.
 This research recommends continuous study in the future in order to obtain
ALIFF ADHAM BIN ADNAN (2016694726) better percentage of accuracy in predicting health supplement consumption.
SUPERVISOR: Dr. RIZAUDDIN SAIAN  Further study can consider this research as a basic reference and can be
Co. SUPERVISOR: Dr. ZETI ZURYANI MOHD ZAKUAN applied to other problem related to prediction.