GUALBERTO D.

AGRIS, DPA
Cpc, Roxas City
 “Environmental scanning is the first step in finding and
analyzing threats and opportunities in the environment. At this
early stage in the strategic management process, it is
necessary to completely enumerate those events and trends
that may be pertinent to the company’s performance in the
future. Experience shows that the surfacing of events and
trends via group sessions often results to heightened
awareness of potential causes for strategic revisions among the
group members. Furthermore, a great deal of insight into
possible future developments can be gained during these
sessions.”
A. ECONOMIC FACTORS – “business cycles, inflationary
trends, consumption, employment, investment, monetary and
fiscal policies.
B. POLITICAL FACTORS – “political power, different ideologies,
interest groups, social stability and regulation”
C. SOCIAL FACTORS – “age distribution, geographic
distribution, income distribution, mobility, education, family
values, work, and business attitudes.
D. TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS – “rate of technological
change, future raw material availability, raw material cost,
technological developments in related areas, product life
cycles”
E. GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS – “natural resources i.e. water
sources, physical characteristics of the land i.e., terrain,
climate, soil quality
“The capability profile is a means for assessing the company’s
strengths and weakness in dealing with the opportunities and
threats in the external environment…four categories are
examined:
a. Managerial
b. Competitive (marketing)
c. Financial
d. Technical
“The company’s capability in each area helps to identify the firm’s
strengths and weaknesses in dealing with variables both in
externa and internal environment.”

“Although all the information for each of the categories may not be
contained in a given case, the categories acts as reminders to
check that all relevant data are considered.”
A. OBJECTIVES B. GENERATION
o Profit C. SELECTION CRITERIA
o Generate employment D. PRELIMINARY
o Upgrade employment SCREENING
opportunities E. PRE-FEASIBILITY
o Improve balance of
payments
o Improve tax base
o Others
1. PRODUCT DESCRIPTION
2. DESCRIPTION OF MARKET
Where is the product now manufactured? How many Companies exist and how
specialized are they? Are there Gov’t contracts or incentives? What is the estimated
consumption? What is the Price Structured?
3. OUTLINE OF TECHNOLOGICAL VARIANTS
Choices of Technology
4. AVAILABILITY OF MAIN PRODUCTION
FACTORS
5. INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS
6. ESTIMATE OF PROFITS
Profits of firms manufacturing similar products or
Actual estimate of profits of the product under study
7. OTHER DATA
There prefeasibility study can be viewed as a series of steps culminating
in a document which permits a decision to be made on whether to
accept, reject or postpone a detailed feasibility study.
1. GATHER PRELIMINARY DATA
• Interview sales people
• Interview individuals in government
• Interview purchases as they are identified
• Perform a literature search
• Check with trade associations
2. IDENTIFY KEY PLANT LOCATION FACTORS
• Markets
• Labor (quality, special skills)
• Raw materials
• Transportation facilities and cost
• Others (personal preferences, foreign competition, present
productive capacity, plant obsolecnce)
• Combination of factors
3. ANALYZE INFORMATION COLLECTED
4. ESTIMATE COST OF STUDY
• Research requirements
• Task requirements
• Duration
• Actual peso cost
5. EVALUATE PROJECT
• Accept
• Reject
• Postpone
1. Technically not sound 7. Lack advantages in respect of
production costs against
2. Very risky competitors (local or foreign)
3. Weak financing 8. Overambitious forecasts of
4. Poor marketing production possibilities
5. Wrong market mix 9. No regard to the real level of the
6. Inadequate raw materials needs of the community
or other inputs 10. May try to achieve profitability by
artificial means
DETERMINATION OF THE STUDYAND DEMAND
CONDITIONS

o Output
o Raw materials

THE PROPOSED SELLING PRICE MARKETING AND

DISTRIBUTION POLICIES AND STRATEGIES
CONCERNED WITH:
o Administrative apparatus that will execute the project
o Form of business organization
o Organization set up
o Work skills and number
o Sources and cost
THIS PORTION SHOULD DESCRIBE THE FOLLOWING:
o Principal products
o Raw materials
o Manufacturing process
o Required fixed assets
o Plant layout
o Labor requirements
o Utilities required
ASPECTS OF PROJECT APPRAISAL
Each project and its component elements must be as
precisely defined as is practicable and appropriate -
o To provide the basis for the decision on whether or not to
go ahead with the project;
o To assure consistency of the components with one another
and with the project’s objectives;
o To help achieve the necessary understandings between
the financing institutions and the implementing agencies
concerning the objectives of the project and strategies to be
oTo prepare the detailed plans and time schedules on which
implementation and supervision will be based;
o To provide the basis from which to judge the significant
effects of the project during the course of implementation
and at its completion; and
o To facilitate evaluation of the impact of the project when it is
completed.
Projects should be carefully appraised for two main
reasons:
1. In the interest of the implementing agency and borrower to
ensure that the project will make a significant impact on the
economic and social development of the country; and
2. In the interest of the financing institution to maintain its credit
standing and accountability to its shareholders or electorates
and taxpayers that own the financing institution
Project appraisal includes the investigation of six different
aspects of projects:
1. Marketing/Commercial
 Procurement and marketing arrangements
2. Technical
 Production/engineering design and environmental matters
3. Institutional/Organizational
 Institutional, management, administration, and technical
assistance
1. Financial
 Requirements for funds and the financial situation of the
implementing agency and of other beneficiaries of the project
2. Sociological
 Socio-cultural factors and impact on specific target groups
such as women
3. Economic
 Project costs to the national economy and the size and
distribution of benefits
The continuous or periodic surveillance over the
implementation of an activity to ensure that input
deliveries, work schedules, targeted outputs and
other actions are according to plan.
Process which attempts to determine as
systematically and objectively as possible the
relevance, effectiveness and impact of activities in
light of their objectives.

Evaluate – means to set a value of or appraise

 Assesses the economic, social, environmental and
financial impacts of a project and combines these to
provide an overall assessment of the project.

 Appraises the progress and performance relative to the

project’s initial or revised plan.
 The assessment of impact involves understanding the nature
of the change that has taken place in you and to determine its
significance in your life.

 The word ‘impact’ is well understood in everyday language,

but somehow, when used as part of development-speak, it
seems to take on a mysterious complexity which leaves
practitioners feeling unsure and lacking in confidence as to
what is really meant.
 What has changed?
 For whom?
 How significant was it?
 Will it last?
 In what ways did we contribute to these changes?

“The systematic analysis of lasting or significant change –

positive or negative, intended or not – in people’s lives
brought about by an action or a series of actions “
 Demonstrate success (to donors, ourselves, the public; to be seen
to supporting progress in meeting objective/s etc), both to justify
funds received and to solicit further funding
 Learn to understand how our efforts impact on local communities
in order to improve the effectives of our interventions ; to make a
more significant difference in people’s lives
 Be accountable to the people (stakeholders) for whom we are
working: we should not ‘do development to local communities’ but
rather work with them to understand the changes they want to
make in their lives and then to analyze progress (or no progress)
together.
 Use the findings from impact assessments to advocate for changes
in behavior, attitudes, policy and legislation at all levels
Monitoring Evaluation Impact Assessment
Measures ongoing activities Measures performance against Assesses change in peoples
objectives lives: positive or negative,
intended or not
Main work during Main work in middle or at end Can be included at all stages
implementation of project/program cycle and/or can be used specifically
after the end of program/
project
Focus on interventions Focus on interventions Focus on affected populations

Focus on outputs Focus on outcomes Focus on impacts

‘What is being done?’ What has happened? Did we What has changed? For whom?
achieve what we set out to How significant is it for them?’
achieve?
For impact assessment to be useful for learning and
accountability, we need to look beyond project logic and
focus on changes in relation to our target groups.

The question to ask is not ‘What did we achieve’? but rather

‘What has changed in relation to our efforts’?
 Who or what was involved in the change? (e.g. individual
actors or state institutions)
 What strategies were used to bring about the change? (e.g.
reform, mass mobilization)
 What were the contexts that affected how the change
happened? (e.g. urbanization, power relationships)
 What was the process or pathway of change? (e.g.
demonstration effects, cumulative progress)
 How were our efforts connected to this?2
The goods, funds, services, manpower,
technology and other resources provided for an
activity that are expected to achieve the objectives
of a project.
The specific products or services which an activity
is expected to produce from its inputs to achieve
its objectives.
 The outcomes of the use of project outputs.

Impact
The outcome of project effects.
The following information will determine the type of
evaluation system chosen:
 What should be measured?
 For whom should it be measured?
 How should it be measured?
 How the data should be collected?
 When and in which form the information is
needed?
 Who collects, analyzes, and presents the
A. Goal Specification
1. What effects the program/project is supposed
to have?
2. Establish agreement about project goals.
3. Express the project goals in measurable terms.
4. Define the yardstick
 What level of measurement can be considered a
success?
 What deviation from that level would make a
difference to the manager?
5. The problem of unanticipated effects
B. Goal Specification
1. The problem
2. Problem elements
3. Program logic (what has happened and why is
has happened?)
C. The Results of the specification exercise
Necessary to determine to what the outcomes
are to be attributed and to determine what worked
and what did not work.
1. Input Variables
Resources provided to achieve the objective
2. Process Variables
How to project inputs are supposed to lead to
expected outcome
3. Output Variables
Expected outcomes
A. What is the bare minimum of information
necessary to make a
MONITORING/EVALUATION system
worthwhile?
B. What is the best use of the
MONITORING/EVALUATION resources
available?
The “worth” of an information depends on its use.
1. The importance of the variables for the
success of the project.
2. The importance of a chance in the variable to
management actions.
3. The degree of uncertainty of the information.
4. The cost of collecting the information.
A MONITORING/EVALUATION Design is
supposed to provide accurate information on:
o The magnitude of changes that can ne
observed
o Which of these changes can be attributed
to project activities
Design: Organization of measures in ways to permit
demonstration of achievement of nonachievement of
intended effects of the program
1. INTERNAL VALIDITY
Ability of the design to yield unbiased estimates
of the effect of the inputs administered
2. EXTERNAL VALIDITY
Ability of the design to generalize the effects to all
individuals to whom the input variables have been
given
3. CONSTRUCT VALIDITY
Whether the indicators used really indicate what it is
supposed to
4. MEASUREMENT VALIDITY
Whether data where carefully collected in the field and
the processed rigorously
5. POLICY VALIDITY
Sensitivity of decision makers to variations in
measurements
1. Case study with one measurement and no control
group
2. Case study with two measurements and no
control group
3. Time series design
4. Use of control group
a) One measurement and one comparison group
b) Several measurements and a control group
i. Quasi experimental group
ii. Experimental design
1. The use that will be made of the evaluation
results
2. The time, money and skills available.

TWO PRINCIPLES TO FOLLOW IN CHOOSING A

DESIGN
o Be realistic about the resources and constraints
o Us the best talent available to verify the study plans
A. Data Collection
1. Use of existing statistics
2. Use of project report
MONITORING ACTIVITIES SHOULD PROVISE
INFORMATION ON:
a. Major inputs
b. Direct action are outside the control of the project
c. Factors that are outside the control of the project (but
will have an influence)
d) Evaluation of a small number of variables considered
to be critical
e) Periodic meetings with representatives of the target
population
f) Coordination of complementary activities
3. Special data collection efforts
a) Baseline survey
b) Resurvey
c) Special topic surveys
i. Determine the unit to be investigated
ii. Determine the number of units to be investigated
Sample size depends on
- variation within the population
- sampling technique
- resources available
- confidence required
- number of sub-groups considered
i. Design the questionnaire
ii. Select and train interviewer
B. Data Processing and Analysis
C. Presentation of Monitoring and
Evaluation Results
1. The evaluation report should ne action oriented
2. Should be understandable to the laymen
3. Should also reflect management position
D. Testing the use of a
Monitoring/Evaluation System
1. Was the information gathered in a cost-
effective was and with adequate technical
rigor?
2. Does the information reach the various
decision-makers on time?
3. What were the decisions taken upon the
information provided by the M/E system?
4. What actions have followed these decisions?
a. During the appraisal mission
b. At the project approval stage
c. At the beginning of the implementation stage
SUGGESTED TIMING
a. Appraisal/approval stage
b. Implementation stage
5. Who should execute the M/E System?
a. Operational staff should not be responsible
b. But active participation of operational staff
c. Should be executed within the agency-
monitoring
d. Survey should be executed by outside
consultants
e. Active participation of beneficiaries
1. The importance of high-level commitment to
evaluation
2. Responsibilities of project management
3. The evaluation unit
a. Place of the evaluation unit in the management structure
b. Relation between evaluator and operational management
4. At what moment should a
MONITORING/EVALUATION system be set
up?
 I. BACKGROUND
 II. EXISTING CONDITION
 III. OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT
 IV. VARIABLES TO BE EVALUATED
 V. TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION
 VI. SOCIAL ANALYSIS
 VII. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
 VIII. INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS
 IX. FINANCIAL/ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
 X. SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
 XI. FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS