Human Resource Management

Name-Argha Mondal
Aditi Saha
Debarati Ghosh
Rohit Bhatnagar
Madras fertilizers Ltd, the biggest fertilizer company in the country was established
in 1991.Several management experts in the country were appointed as the
Directors of the board to run the company in a professional way. The company
constituted a team of specialists to develop and administer tests and interviews to
select candidates for the post of Deputy General Manager ,Marketing. The team
has selected a promising candidate Mr. Praveen ,a Post Graduate in Statistics and
D.Litt Degree holder from the USA as Deputy General Manager, Marketing for
Southern Area after administering a battery of tests scientifically .Mr. Chaitanya an
MBA from the SK University ,with 10 years experience in similar field was not
selected as his score in some tests was below the cut off point and overall score
was less than that of Mr. Praveen .However was employed as Deputy Gen Manager
,Marketing in Pragati Fertilizers Ltd .Hyderabad without administering any tests .M/s
Pragati Fertilizers Ltd.is a medium scale organization and its market share was only
10% in the southern region whereas Madras Fertilizers Ltd. Was enjoying 50%
market share in the south in 2001 ,when Mr. Praveen took charge.

Mr.Chaitanya has been the in –charge of the southern region since 2001.It is
said that the increase in market share from 10%to 60% during 2001 to 2016 of
Pragati fertilizers Ltd. in the southern region has been made responsible exclusively
for this situation .
The Board of Directors of Pragati Fertilizers Ltd. knew the reasons for the
success of Mr. Chaitanya ,whilist the Board of Directors of Madras Fertilizers Ltd.
appointed a committee to go into the matter of validity and reliability of tests.
 Analysis of the situation
Yes I attribute the failure of Mr.Praveen
The reasons for failure for Mr.Praveen:
• Mental distress.
• Physically Upsets.
• Family Problems.
• Lack of Up gradation of Knowledge.
• Absence vital operation skills.
• Absence of fit to the existing scenario.
 Key Attributes to the situation
The market share dwindled from 50% to 15%
during 2001 to 2008.
Mr.Praveen held responsible for this:
• Inefficient sales forecasting methods
• Prevailing market forces.
• Inefficient estimation of trend estimate .
• Inefficient adjustment of seasonal factors.
• Incapacity to adjust the sensitivity factor
Methods to be adopted by Mr.Praveen
 Exponential Smoothing
Exponential smoothing is a time-series smoothing and
forecasting technique that produces an exponentially
weighted moving average in which each smoothing
calculation or forecast is dependent upon all
previously observed values.
• The smoothing factor “α” is a value between 0 and 1,
where α closer to 1 means more weigh to the recent
observations and hence more rapidly changing
forecast.

Dr. C. Ertuna 6
 Exponential Smoothing Model

Ft  Ft 1   ( Yt 1  Ft 1 )
or
Ft  Yt 1  ( 1   )Ft 1
where:
Ft= Forecast value for period t
Yt-1 = Actual value for period t-1
Ft-1 = Forecast value for period t-1
 = Alpha (smoothing constant)

Dr. C. Ertuna 7
 Holt-Winters Model

The Holt-Winters forecasting model could be

used in forecasting trends. Holt-Winters
model consists of both an exponentially
smoothing component (E, w) and a trend
component (T, v) with two different
smoothing factors.

Dr. C. Ertuna 8
 Holt-Winters Model

Ft  k  Et  kTt
Et  wYt 1  ( 1  w )( Et 1  Tt 1 )
Tt  v( Et  Et 1 )  ( 1  v )Tt 1
where:
Ft+k= Forecast value k periods from t 1. E1 and T1 are not
Yt-1 = Actual value for period t-1 defined.
2. E2 = Y2
Et-1 = Estimated value for period t-1 3. T2 = Y2 – Y1
Tt = Trend for period t
w = Smoothing constant for estimates
v = Smoothing factor for trend
k = number of periods
Dr. C. Ertuna 9
 Recommendations
• Mr. Praveen should be aware of the market
conditions.
• Adopt proper estimation measures of sales
turnover.
• Adjust properly the trend estimate,seasonal
component.
• React perfectly with the Sensitivity factor’
• Take a vacation which will help to overcome
mental distress and can start the work with fresh
mindset.
 Conclusions
• Mr. Praveen should be given another
opportunity.
• Mr. Praveen can overcome all his problems
and have a new journey to capture more
market share.
• Proper training should be given for
implementing statistical measures.