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Launching of The Second European Climate Change Programme (ECCP II)
Launching of The Second European Climate Change Programme (ECCP II)
Launching of The Second European Climate Change Programme (ECCP II)
Lars Strömberg
Vattenfall AB
Stockholm/Berlin
© Vattenfall AB
Who’s got the problem ?
© Vattenfall AB 2
CO2 free power plant
ECCP I - experiences
© Vattenfall AB 3
Cost and Potential of options to reduce CO2 emissions
Principal example
Biofuel
Coal to gas
Potential
[Percent]
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
2000-07-16
© Vattenfall AB 4
Lars Strömberg Vattenfall AB
Reductions of CO2 – What ECCP 1 gave
© Vattenfall AB 5
Cost and Potential of options to reduce CO2 emissions until 2010
Derived from ECCP Energy Supply Preliminary report.
100 Wind
Coal to Coal
CHP
Potential
[Percent]
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Methane mines
© Vattenfall AB 6
Reductions of CO2 – What we have learned (2)
© Vattenfall AB 7
Reductions of CO2 – What we have learned (3)
© Vattenfall AB 8
Reductions of CO2 – What we have learned (3)
• Carbon Capture and Storage CCS has gained much recognition
and development is going fast.
– Many countries have recognized CCS as a powerful tool and have
introduced it in their plans to fulfill their environmental goals
• The USA, UK, Australia, France, Germany among many others
– CCS does cost 20 – 25 €/ton CO2
• ECCP 1 assumed 50 €/ton of CO2
– Storage capacity exceeds the remaining fossil fuel reserves
– Storage in geological formations is available all over the world, all over
Europe, off-shore and on-shore
– CCS will not be available in a large scale until 2015 –2020
• ECCP 1 assumed before 2010
– CCS can probably reach half of the mitigation necessary to reach our
long term goals of 60 – 80 % of reduction until 2050
© Vattenfall AB 9
Emission Trading
Emission Trading
sets the commercial
framework for new
technology in Europe
© Vattenfall AB 10
European CO2 trading system Sept. 2005
© Vattenfall AB 11
Allocations in the European trading system
In total 12 000 units is included in the trading system. In the National allocation plans 2 100 Mton/year or 6300
Mtons for three years have been distributed. This is the roof set for emissions.
The deficit is calculated to 180 Mton for 3 years. The power industry has a deficit of 360 Mton. Other sectors have
an overallocation.
Other
Metals
Total
© Vattenfall AB 12
Marginal cost vs. Reduction of CO2 emissions in EUR/ton CO2
Marginal
Source: ECOFYScost vs. reduction
Economic evaluationof CO2 emissions
of sectorial reduction in Euro/ton
objectives for CO2
climate change
source: ECOFYS Economic Evaluation of sectorial Emission Reduction Objectives for Climate Change
250
The price in Sept 2005 is about 24 €/ton CO2 ???
200
CO2
150
100
50
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Emission reduction in mio ton CO2
© Vattenfall AB 13
Capture and storage of CO2
© Vattenfall AB 14
The CO2 free Power Plant principle
© Vattenfall AB 15
CO2 free power plant
© Vattenfall AB 16
Storage of CO2 in a Saline Aquifer under the North Sea
CO2-injection into
the saline aquifer
Utsira.
(Source:STATOIL)
The Sleipner field. Oil and gas production facilities. (Source: STATOIL )
© Vattenfall AB 17
Storage Capacity, saline aquifers
Source:
Franz May,
Peter Gerling,
Paul Krull
Bundesanstalt für
Geowissenschaften und
Rohstoffe, Hannover
© Vattenfall AB 18
CO2 Transport and storage Schweinrich structure
© Vattenfall AB 19
Reservoir simulation – 40 year model
Injection at flanks
© Vattenfall AB 20
Geological structure modelling. Schweinrich
© Vattenfall AB 21
CO2 free power plant
Capture
© Vattenfall AB 22
Post-combustion capture
This technology is already commercially available in
large scale (500 MW). It is at present the most expensive
© Vattenfall AB 23
Pre-combustion capture
© Vattenfall AB 24
O2/CO2 combustion is the preferred option at present
© Vattenfall AB 25
COE [EUR/MWhe]
IE
A
G
© Vattenfall AB
HG
IE
A PF
G
HG 20
IE 0
A PF 4 n
G o
HG 20 ca
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
IE 04 pt 70
A PF p ur
G o st e
HG 20
20 c om
M PF n b.
its 20 o c
ui 20 a p
20 po ture
M 04 s
its PF tco
m
Hard Coal
M u i2 n b
its 00 o ca .
ui 4
20 O p tur
20
2/
C e
IE M O
A its PF 2
G u no PF
HG i 2
IE 0 2 c a
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IE G I 20 ca
A G
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HG C 2 pr u re
e
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CC no mb
20 c .
20 a ptu
EN p re
CA re-
P c o
IE PF mb
A O O .
26
G xy xy Lig
ni
HG fu fu te
IE el e
A 20 wi l W
G 0 th FG
IE
HG 4
NG out D
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Lignite
G
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NG n o D
A 20 ca
G 2 0 CC pt
HG ur
NG p o e
M 2 0 C
st
c
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its 0 b.
ui NG n o
20 C c a pt
M 04 N C p ur
its G o st e
ui co
20 CC
04 no mb
O
Natural gas
ca .
2/ pt
C
O ur
e
2
NG
CC
COE
Total generation cost of electricity with CO2 penalty
50
40
COE [EUR/MWh]
COE penalty
30
COE origninal
20
10
0
IEA GHG IEA GHG Mitsui 2004 Mitsui 2020 IEA GHG IEA GHG Oxyfuel Oxyfuel IEA GHG IEA GHG Mitsui 2004
PF 2004 PF 2020 O2/CO2 PF O2/CO2 PF IGCC 2003 IGCC 2020 WFGD without 2004 NGCC 2020 NGCC O2/CO2
postcomb. postcomb. pre-comb. pre-comb. WFGD postcomb. postcomb. NGCC
© Vattenfall AB 27
Electricity generation costs
60,0
50,0
Electricity production cost EUR/MWh
Capital costs
20,0 EUR/MWh
10,0
0,0
PF CC PF oxyfuel CC CO2 capt.
© Vattenfall AB 28
Generation costs incl. CO2 costs (20 €/ton)
60,0
50,0
Electricity Production cost EUR/MWh
40,0
CO2 penalty
Fuel and
30,0 consumables
Fixed O&M +
additional op costs
Running O&M
20,0
Capital costs
EUR/MWh
10,0
0,0
PF CC PF oxyfuel CC CO2 capt.
© Vattenfall AB 29
Avoidance costs of CO2
60,0
Avoidance costs
50,0
40,0
Avoidance cost €/ton CO2
CO2 penalty
Fuel and consumables
30,0
Fixed O&M + additional op costs
Running O&M
Capital costs EUR/MWh
20,0
10,0
0,0
© Vattenfall AB 30
Cost and Potential of options to reduce CO2 emissions
Principal example
Cost for carbon dioxide New Picture 2005 including recent knowledge
avoidance
Solar
[EUR/ton CO2]
Wind
100 Biofuel El
Hydro
Coal to gas
Potential
[Percent]
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
2000-07-16
© Vattenfall AB 31
Lars Strömberg Vattenfall AB
Conclusions from analysis - Reduction of CO2
• Carbon capture and storage from Coal fired Power plants can
be done at a cost close to 20 €/ton CO2
– Capture at about 15 €/ton of CO2
– Storage at lower than 2 €/ton CO2
– Transport depending on distance and volume, but 5 €/ton of CO2 for
large plants on shore
• More than enough storage capacity on shore and off shore is at
hand in saline aquifers
• Technology choice is not yet made. Oxyfuel is preferred
technology in Vattenfall at present
• The commercial choice stands between Gasfired CC without
CCS, taking the penalty of CO2 emission, and Coal fired
plants with CCS
Back up
© Vattenfall AB 34
The Climate Change
© Vattenfall AB 35
CO2 storage cost
© Vattenfall AB 36
CO2 transport cost:
Distance 320 km
10 Mton CO2 per year over 40 years:
7,00
Opex
6,00
5,00
€ per ton CO2
4,00
3,00
Capex
2,00
1,00
0,00
€/ton €/ton
Left: 25 years, 7,5% Right: 10 years, 10%
© Vattenfall AB 37
CO2 free power plant
Pilot Plant
© Vattenfall AB 38
Construction area
© Vattenfall AB 39
Boxberg IV
© Vattenfall AB 40
CO2 free power plant
Analysis of some
technology options
© Vattenfall AB 41
CO2 Free Power Plant: Technology Choice
The ultimate technology choice is not clear yet. Several technologies will
probably be applied to different commercial situations.
© Vattenfall AB 42
Options for reduction of CO2
Efficiency % 45 60 36,5 49
© Vattenfall AB 44
The Problem
• Fossil fuels are needed
– Analysis show that fossil fuels will remain as major energy source
in 2030 ( 85 %)
• The top priority is to introduce renewable energy sources in
the energy system
– All analysis show that renewable energy sources will play a large
role, but not large enough and soon enough
• In several countries nuclear power is decommissioned
• No renewable energy source not known today can play a
significant role in 25 years from now, i.e. 2030
© Vattenfall AB 45
Schwarze Pumpe power plant
© Vattenfall AB 46