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PC Alberta – Strategic Update

Survey

Prepared for:

June, 2010 STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

Methodology
 3

Methodology
• A proportional telephone survey of 601 adults in Alberta, 18 years and older
conducted from June 17 to June 26, 2010 AND a proportional telephone survey of 601
adults in Alberta, 18 years and older conducted from October 21 st to 26th, 2010.

• Sample was broken down into three regions as follows (June/Oct):

- Calgary n= 187; n=180
- Edmonton n= 151; n=175
- North/South/rural n= 263; n=246

• Margin of error for total sample approximately +4.00, 19 times out of 20.

• Margin of error for regional results is approximately 6.93%, 19 times out of 20.

• The data has been weighted by region, age and gender according to the 2001 / 2006
Canadian Census data.

Note: Graphs may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. Sums are added before rounding
numbers.
Albertans’ Values
Majority believe that the government should 5

create equal opportunity for people to compete

Q It is more important for government…

60%

28%

10%

To create equal opportunity so that To redistribute wealth so that the poor Don't know
everyone can compete on their own to be and disadvantaged have more than they
the best they can be. would if left on their own.

Note: ‘Blank ‘and ‘Refused’ (3%) not shown

 Majority believe that the profit system teaches 6

people the value of hard work and success

Q Do you think the profit system…

56%

26%

15%

Brings out the worst in human nature? Teaches people the value of hard work Don't know
and success?

Note: ‘Blank ‘and ‘Refused’ (3%) not shown

Three-in-four believe that Alberta has a pressing 7

social deficit
Q Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

We have a pressing social deficit in

Alberta that is measured by
problems such as homelessness,
waiting lists for health care and
34% 42% 4% 12% 5%
lack of access to post-secondary
education.

It's hard for people like me to get

ahead in Alberta.
16% 20% 4% 29% 26%

Protecting the environment is

more important than creating jobs.
13% 35% 9% 26% 14%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Note: ‘Don’t know/Refused’ not shown

Majority believe the gov’t should decide spending 8

based on the public’s need, not affordability

Q Which of the following statements is closest to your view? When governments make major decisions
concerning spending on programs and services, do you think they should be basing their decisions mainly on…

65%

26%

10%

Their ability to afford the programs and The public's need for the programs and Don't know
services services
By a 2:1 margin, Albertans believe in funding 9

social programs over eliminating the deficit

Q Which statement is closest to your view?
The provincial government should increase finding for social programs such as health and education even if it
means running a deficit
-or-
The provincial government should eliminate the deficit, even if it means reducing funding for social programs
such as health and education
 Three-in-four believe that people should be left 10

alone to decide what is right on moral issues

Q When it comes to moral issues like same sex marriage and abortion, do you think…

75%

17%

6%

Government should legislate clear People should be left alone to decide Don't know
community moral standards? what is right for themselves?

Note: ‘Blank ‘and ‘Refused’ (2%) not shown

PC Party Brand
PC Party scores highest in questions relating to 12

leadership, competence and responsibility

Thinking about Alberta’s main parties the Progressive Conservatives, the Wildrose Alliance, the Liberals and the
Q NDP, please tell which party is best described by each of the following words or phrases.

Prepared to run the government 37% 12% 5% 14% 1% 13% 14%

Competent 33% 11% 6% 12% 1% 17% 18%

Strong team 33% 10% 7% 16% 1% 12% 18%

Financially responsible 32% 13% 5% 10% 18% 17%

The PC Party The Liberal Party The NDP The Wildrose Alliance
Other None/ Would not vote Undecided/DK
“Extreme” used by a plurality to describe the 13

NDP, Wildrose
Thinking about Alberta’s main parties the Progressive Conservatives, the Wildrose Alliance, the Liberals and the
Q NDP, please tell which party is best described by each of the following words or phrases.

Extreme 9% 13% 22% 21% 3% 9% 18%

The PC Party The Liberal Party The NDP The Wildrose Alliance
Other None/ Would not vote Undecided/DK
“Stands for values I believe in” used by plurality 14

to describe the PC party

Thinking about Alberta’s main parties the Progressive Conservatives, the Wildrose Alliance, the Liberals and the
Q NDP, please tell which party is best described by each of the following words or phrases.

Stands for values I believe in 27% 14% 10% 21% 4% 10% 12%

The PC Party The Liberal Party The NDP The Wildrose Alliance
Other None/ Would not vote Undecided/DK
Leader Brand
 Stelmach scores highest on record, competence 16

and leadership
Thinking again of the four main party leaders – Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party, Dr. David
Q Swann of the Liberal Party, Brian Mason of the New Democratic Party, and Danielle Smith of the Wildrose
Alliance – which leader do you feel is best described by each of the following words or phrases?

Proven record of
28% 7% 6% 6% 21%
accomplishment

Competent 23% 9% 9% 18% 9%

Strong leader 21% 7% 8% 20% 14%

Ed Stelmach of the PC Party Dr. David Swan of the Liberal Party Brian Mason of the NDP
Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance None

Note: ‘Don’t know/Refused’ not shown

 Stelmach scores highest on being a regular 17

person, caring about voters and their problems

Thinking again of the four main party leaders – Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party, Dr. David
Q Swann of the Liberal Party, Brian Mason of the New Democratic Party, and Danielle Smith of the Wildrose
Alliance – which leader do you feel is best described by each of the following words or phrases?

Is a regular person 30% 8% 12% 15% 7%

Cares about people like me 20% 9% 10% 16% 17%

Cares about the problems of

21% 9% 11% 14% 16%
my community

Ed Stelmach of the PC Party Dr. David Swan of the Liberal Party

Brian Mason of the NDP Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance
None

Note: ‘Don’t know/Refused’ not shown

 18

Ed Stelmach is reliable
Thinking again of the four main party leaders – Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party, Dr. David
Q Swann of the Liberal Party, Brian Mason of the New Democratic Party, and Danielle Smith of the Wildrose
Alliance – which leader do you feel is best described by each of the following words or phrases?

Reliable 25% 7% 9% 13% 15%

Ed Stelmach of the PC Party Dr. David Swan of the Liberal Party Brian Mason of the NDP
Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance None

Note: ‘Don’t know/Refused’ not shown

 Ed Stelmach balances the interests of all regions 19

Thinking again of the four main party leaders – Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party, Dr. David
Q Swann of the Liberal Party, Brian Mason of the New Democratic Party, and Danielle Smith of the Wildrose
Alliance – which leader do you feel is best described by each of the following words or phrases?

Note: ‘Don’t know/Refused’ not shown

 20

Stelmach compares positively to other leaders

Thinking again of the main party leaders ... which leader do you feel is best described by each of the following
Q words or phrases?

Note: ‘Don’t know/Refused’ not shown

Stelmach has increased favourable impressions, 21

while Smith, Swann, Mason stayed the same

Now, I would like to read you the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news recently.
Q For each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or
unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just say so. Would that be strongly
favourable/unfavourable impression or just a somewhat favourable/unfavourable impression?

Note: ‘Don’t know/Refused’ not shown

 22

Ed Stelmach top choice for Premier

Q And which of the following leaders would make the best Premier of Alberta…?

Note: ‘Refused’ (1%) not shown

The “Snapshot” Question
PCs have a plurality, and have widened their lead 24

over Wildrose Alliance.

Q Now, if a provincial election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your local
riding? Would it be…?

Liberal candidate PC candidate NDP candidate The Wildrose Other Undecided/DK

Alliance
candidate
Note: ‘Refused’, “Would not vote’ (5%) not shown
Almost a third of those decided and leaning 25

would vote PC
Q Now, if a provincial election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your local
riding? Would it be…? [Vote + lean]

Liberal candidate PC candidate NDP The Wildrose Other

candidate Alliance
candidate

Note: ‘Refused’, “Would not vote’ (5%) not shown

PCs lead with 40% of decided vote, opening a gap 26

on The Wildrose Alliance

Q Now, if a provincial election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your local
riding? Would it be…? [Decided Vote]

Liberal candidate NDP The Wildrose Other

PC candidate
candidate Alliance
candidate
PCs lead in Edmonton and rural; statistical tie in 27

Calgary
Q Now, if a provincial election were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your local
riding? Would it be…? [Decided vote]
Calgary

Edmonton

Rural

PC
NDP
Liberal
Wildrose Alliance
PC voters vs. Wildrose voters (June & Oct. 2010): 28

Really not all that different

82%
67%
25% 25%

PC Wildrose PC Wildrose
Attend church at least once a week Believe gov’t should be doing more or at least the same to protect free,
high quality healthcare.

84%
63% 68%
63%

PC Wildrose PC Wildrose
Agree that the profit system teaches people the value of
hard work and success Believe gov’t should be doing more or at least the same to reduce GHGs.
 29

Key Findings Summary

• PC brand strengths are leadership, competence, team,
responsibility.
• Premier Stelmach’s brand strengths are accomplishment,
competence and leadership.
• Also cares about voters, balances regional interests and is reliable.
• Wildrose supporters similar to PC voters in attitudes,
demographics, and position on issues.
Key Findings Summary
• The PC party has improved its position since June
– Decided vote lead doubles from 7 to 14 points
• Gains in Edmonton and Calgary – stable in rural
• Underlying party numbers also show improvements

• The Premier has improved his standing since June

– Best Premier - leading by 8
– Favourables up 6 and unfavourables down 9
– Underlying numbers all show similar gains
 31

Contact Information

Managing Director
Greg Lyle Direct: 416-642-6429
Email: glyle@innovativeresearch.ca

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