IE314A - ENGINEERING ECONOMY

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING

PROBABILITY
Sample Problem
PROBABILITY

1. A cup is flipped 100 times. It lands on its side 84 times, on its

bottom 6 times, and on its top 10 times. What is the probability
that it lands on top?
2. Fifty balls are numbered 1-50, placed in a box and mixed
thoroughly. If a ball is picked at random, what is the probability
that:
a. It is divisible by 6
b. Its number ends with 2
c. Its number is divisible by 6 or end with 2

3. A pair of dice is tossed. Find the probability of getting:

a. A total of 8
b. At most a total of 5
PROBABILITY

4. At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans, 13 Democrats, and

6 Independents. If a person is selected at random, find the
probability that he or she is either a Democrat or an Independent.

5. What is the probability of a 2 or an odd number being rolled on

a fair die?

6. In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A

blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a
frequency distribution and find the following probabilities.
a. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
b. A person does not have type AB blood.
PROBABILITY

7. The probability that Paula passes Mathematics is 2/3, and the

probability that she passes English is 4/9. If the probability of
passing both courses is ¼. What is the probability that Paula will
pass at least one of these courses?

8. Three men are seeking public office. Candidate A and B are

given about the same chance of winning, but candidate C is given
twice the chance of either A or B
a. What is the probability that C wins?
b. What is the probability that A does not win?
PROBABILITY (MULTIPLICATION)

1. Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck and not

replaced. Find the probability of these.
a. Getting 3 jacks
b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order
c. Getting a flower, a spade, and a heart in order
d. Getting 3 clubs

2. Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement,

from an ordinary cards. Find the probability that A ∩ B ∩ C
occurs where A is the event that first card is a red ace, event B the
second card is 10 or a jack, and events C for third card is greater
than 3 but less than 7.
 PROBABILITY (MULTIPLICATION)

3. A bag contains 3 pink candies and 7 green candies. Two candies

are taken out from the bag with replacement. Find the probability
that both candies are pink.
4. Jonathan spins 2 spinners; one of which is labelled 1, 2 and 3,
and the other is labelled A, B, C and D. Given that all the
outcomes are equally likely, find the probability that:
a) the spinners stop at “2” and “C”. b) the spinners stop at “3”
and either “B” or “D”

5. Suppose that a satellite defense system is established in which

four satellites acting independently have a 0.9 probability of
detecting an incoming ballistic missile. What is the probability
that at least one of the four satellites detects an incoming ballistic
missile? Would you feel safe with such a system?
PROBABILITY (MULTIPLICATION)

6. An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A

ball is selected and its color noted. Then it is replaced. A second
ball is selected and its color noted. Find the probability of each of
these.
a. Selecting 2 blue balls
b. Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball
c. Selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball
7. A drawer contains six black socks, four brown socks, and two
green socks. Suppose that two socks are drawn from the drawer
without replacing the first. Determine the probability of getting
two brown socks.
8. In a sample of 1000 people, 120 are left-handed. Two unrelated
people are selected at random without replacement.
Find the probability that both people are left-handed.
Find the probability that neither person is left-handed.
PROBABILITY (CONDITIONAL)

1. A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the

armed forces should be permitted to participate in combat. The
results of the survey are shown.

Gender Yes No Total

Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100

Find these probabilities.

a. The respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a
female.
b. The respondent was a male, given that the respondent
answered no.
PROBABILITY (CONDITIONAL)

2. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on

time is 0.83, the probability that it arrives on time is 0.92, and the
probability that it departs and arrives on time is 0.78. Find the
probability that a plane

(a) arrives on time given that it departed on time, and

(b) departed on time given that it has arrived on time

PROBABILITY (CONDITIONAL)

3. The probability that an automobile being filled with gasoline

will also need an oil change is 0.25, the probability that it needs a
new filter is 0.40 and the probability that both the oil and filter
need changing is 0.14.

a. If the oil had to be changed, what is the probability that a new

filter is needed?
b. If a new oil filter is needed, what is the probability that the oil
has to be changed?
PROBABILITY (CONDITIONAL)

4. A committee is composed of six democrats and five republicans.

Three of the democrats are men and three of the republicans are
men. If a male is chosen for chairman, what is the probability that
he is a republican?

5. A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability that all three are
heads.
a. If it is known that the first 2 are heads
b. If it is known that 2 of them are heads
PROBABILITY (CONDITIONAL)

6. In an exam, two reasoning problems, 1 and 2, are asked. 35%

students solved problem 1 and 15% students solved both the
problems. How many students who solved the first problem will
also solve the second one?

7. Out of 50 people surveyed in a study, 35 smoke in which there

are 20 males. What is the probability the if the person surveyed is
a smoker then he is a male?
PROBABILITY (BAYES’)

8. Suppose that Bob is late one day.

His boss wishes to estimate the probability that he traveled to
work that day by car.

He does not know which mode of transportation Bob usually uses,

so he gives a prior probability of 1 in 3 to each of the three
possibilities.

Mode of transport:
Probability he is late:
Car 50%
Bus 20%
Train 1%
PROBABILITY (BAYES’)

9. Urn 1 contains 5 white balls and 7 black balls. Urn 2 contains 3

whites and 12 black. A fair coin is flipped; if it is Heads, a ball is
drawn from Urn 1, and if it is Tails, a ball is drawn from Urn 2.
Suppose that this experiment is done and you learn that a white
ball was selected. What is the probability that this ball was in fact
taken from Urn 2?
PROBABILITY (BAYES’)

10. Three jars contain colored balls as described in the table

below. One jar is chosen at random and a ball is selected. If the
ball is red, what is the probability that it came from the 2nd jar?

Jar # Red White Blue

1 3 4 1
2 1 2 3
3 4 3 2
PROBABILITY (BAYES’)

11. All tractors made by a company are produced on one of three

assembly lines, named Red, White, and Blue. The chances that a
tractor will not start when it rolls off of a line are 6%, 11%, and
8% for lines Red, White, and Blue, respectively. 48% of the
company’s tractors are made on the Red line and 31% are made
on the Blue line. What fraction of the company’s tractors do not
start when they roll off of an assembly line?