POLS 207

State & Local Government*

Beliefs & Facts, and Winning & Losing (Chapter 1A)

Dr. Roblyer, Ph.D.

Fall 2019

*These slides are based on originals provided by Dr. Harvey Tucker

Political Beliefs vs. Political Facts
 Are these dependent on, or independent of,
each other?
 Beliefs are the things we consider to be true
about politics
◦ We know what we believe—we also tend to hang out with
people who have similar beliefs
 … but in politics, beliefs are often not based
on facts
◦ Contemporary political actors discuss their beliefs more
than they discuss facts
◦ …but call it all “truth” anyway, even when facts do not
support their claims
Political Beliefs vs. Political Facts
 Savvy citizens must be able to tell the
difference between beliefs and facts,
whether listening, writing, or speaking
 We must also learn to understand what others
believe so we can interact, cooperate, and
compete
 This benefits our politics and our communities
 Also benefits our effectiveness in all of our roles
and areas of involvement
Tale of Two Groups: What are their
goals and how do they use political facts?
 Group 1: Political actors & commentators
◦ Goal A: Seek power (…to change policy, advance
careers, hold/gain audience, etc.)
◦ Goal B: Entice us to agree with them using
whatever means are available and useful, even…
 Factually incorrect information
 Factual information that is incomplete
 Factual information that is out of context
 Happens all the time! Need evidence? Check out:
 www.factcheck.org
 www.politifact.com
◦ IT IS NOT their job to “tell the truth” (i.e.,
provide all the facts, or explain their method of
analysis or rationale for conclusions)
Political actors and their deceptive
tricks aren’t just in government!

https://dilbert.com/
Tale of Two Groups: What are their
goals and how do they use political facts?
 Group 2: Political scientists
◦ Goal A: Scientifically seek out the best empirical
information to transparently describe & explain
events/behavior
 “Empirical” means _____________
◦ Goal B: Fund research and publish findings;
increase standing in field of study (all possible
sources of bias)
◦ IT IS their job to produce trustworthy findings,
but…
 Results of different studies are sometimes contradictory
 Some of the most pressing questions are hard to study
 Scientists are human, so are susceptible to greed, etc.
Distinguishing Between Beliefs and
Facts: “Who?” “Why?” and “What?”
 Research who they are & why they are speaking
◦ Assess motives & likely biases
 Listen to understand what they are saying, then
analyze that content critically
◦ Factual correctness of information
◦ Information completeness and context
◦ Meaning they attributed to this information and how
their conclusion was determined
◦ …and lots more
Reasons we often don’t have much
use for the facts…
 We like our beliefs more, even in the face of
contradictory factual evidence
 We are all plagued with systematic biases
that are “bugs” in the rationality of our thinking
◦ Implicit bias against other groups (HW #2)
◦ Availability & Representative biases (HW #2)
◦ Confirmation bias (upcoming video)
◦ …and many more
“Fake News” is in the headlines
 Principles for learning to avoid being fooled by
“fake news” are much the same as those for
separating facts from beliefs

https://youtu.be/AkwWcHekMdo (Captioned)
It’s happened to me!
 I’ve often read and retold stories about
the very odd behavior of lemmings

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lemming
 And I am not the only one!

https://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/l/lemmings.asp
Whodunit?
 Then I learned that lemmings don’t act
that way at all
◦ In fact, the folks that duped me were NOT
…a political party
OR
…Russian hackers
◦ Instead, it was someone many of us thought
we trust…
In addition to facts vs. beliefs, pay
attention to these distinctions, too…
 Winners vs. Losers
◦ No matter the decision, there will be some of each
 Individuals vs. Groups
◦ Who is disfavored? Who is empowered?
 Today vs. Tomorrow
◦ Which is sacrificed for the other?
 Motivated vs. Objective
◦ Is information used to enlist or to inform?

These distinctions are also critical in other

areas—not just political science
“Winning vs. Losing”
Texas Population Across Age Cohorts
YOUR YOUR
GRANDPARENTS PARENTS
BLACK BLACK
ANGLO
ANGLO
HISPANIC

HISPANIC

YOUR YOUNGER
YOU
RELATIVES
BLACK BLACK
ANGLO
ANGLO

HISPANIC HISPANIC
“Winning vs. Losing”
The Destiny of Texas Demography
Texas Population When You Are Your
Parents’ Age
OTHER
ANGLO
BLACK

HISPANIC
Texas Population of Voting Age When You
Are Your Parents’ Age Important differentiation in the measure
if concerned about “winning vs. losing!”

OTHER

BLACK ANGLO

HISPANIC
BREAK to Keys to the City
Part 1 of 3
 “Winning vs. Losing” and Effects of Time
Adding a New Aggie Parking Garage
http://www.ece.tamu.edu/OtherLinks/map_garage.htm
 Long-term project:
◦ 4 years to approve & build
◦ To be paid for as it is built, via increased
student fees
 Two student groups affected:
◦ Those who will pay
◦ Those who will benefit
 Most students who must pay will not
benefit or not benefit much
◦ Currently here, but will graduate, move on
 Most students who will benefit will not
pay anything at all
◦ Haven’t even applied to TAMU yet
 Should current students support or
not?

Uncertainty is amplified when long time lags exist between

cause & effect, and when different groups are involved
 Let’s put all that onto a timeline…

Garage Fully
Funded

Construction Starts Garage Opens

Current student fees fund

Current students graduate

Future students begin attending

4 years to approve/build Garage in Use (~40 yrs)

Must pay. Probably didn’t pay.

Probably won’t benefit. Will benefit.
 “Winning vs. Losing” and Effects of Time
Your Child’s Kindergarten Teacher
 In 10 yrs, you will want a quality teacher
for your 1st child entering Kindergarten
 That teacher must be graduating about
now to have the experience you will want
them to have in 10 years
◦ Their career choice now will be based on
current TX teacher salaries, not future ones
◦ Current TX teacher salaries are nearly the
lowest in nation
 TX is a low-tax, low-spend state
 Drives significant teacher shortages in TX
 Forces TX to often waive minimum qualification
standards to hire new teachers
 Long lag time between cause (salaries now)
& effect (quality teachers in 10 yrs) means
you likely won’t get the outcome you want
 Different groups (young parents & older
taxpayers) have competing interests in how
http://tamutimes.tamu.edu/files/2013/09/kindergartners-reading.jpg
state budget is spent
 For you to do later:
Where would you place each of these “puzzle
pieces” to correctly depict the series of events?
Your child’s ideal K-teacher
10 yrs of teaching experience graduates from TAMU
You begin paying attention
to tax rates, teacher salaries,
10 yrs until your first child is ready for Kindergarten
and teacher quality

Your child’s K-teacher looks

Legislature & school at teachers salaries: Can she
boards set teacher salaries You become interested in afford to teach?
drivers of low teacher salaries

You & fellow young parents

lobby for better teacher salaries
You aren’t voting or watching state taxes/budgets.
Older Texans are, and want low spending/taxes.

I will include the answer in the post-lecture version of these slides

Definitions of Politics
 Politics is concerned with the authoritative allocation of
values (Easton)
◦ Does “authoritative” mean “objective?”
◦ Does “allocation” mean “winning vs. losing?”
◦ Does “values” mean the favoring of individuals or groups today
or tomorrow?

 Political endeavor seeks to bring about a maximum

degree of change in the opposing group with a
minimum of change in one’s own group (Deutsch)
◦ Conflict results from differences between groups’ preferred
allocation of goods
◦ Why? Because goods in question are public, not private (more
on this in a couple of slides)

More on winning, losing, and the role of

government in Chapter 4….
 This marks the end of the
lecture.

All slides beyond this placeholder

are “parked” there for the
instructor’s benefit, not for
student use or study.