Boosting Drought

Mitigation Option Feasibility

Case of JIAT Kuanheun, Kupang – NTT

By C.I. Dadimesa & Yulius PK Suni

1st APTIK International Conference on Poverty and the Environment -UAJ Yogyakarta
21-23 September 2018
 Outline
• Introduction and Background
• Methods
• Findings
• Scenario
• Discussion
Introduction and Background

Number of disaster events in NTT 1950 - 2017

Source: Compilation from DIBI BNPB
KEBAKARAN HUTAN DAN LAHAN 2
TSUNAMI 5
LETUSAN GUNUNG API 11
KONFLIK / KERUSUHAN SOSIAL 12
GEMPA BUMI 15
KLB 18
KEKERINGAN 21
BANJIR DAN TANAH LONGSOR 25
KECELAKAAN TRANSPORTASI 35
GELOMBANG PASANG / ABRASI 38
TANAH LONGSOR 64
BANJIR 189
PUTING BELIUNG 216
Introduction and Background
• WFP report: all districts are at risk of drought
• Impacts of drought:
– Loss of food production (rice)
– Food insecurity (91% in West Timor)
– Agriculture to GRDP 70% (1960s) to 39% (2009)
• Government response: supply augmentation
option
– Construction of new water infrastructure
– One of the options is the development of deep ground
water drilling wells – JIAT

• Is drilling well ecologically and financially feasible?

 Methods
Study site
Kuanheun Village, Amabi Oefeto sub district, Kupang district,
NTT province
 Methods
Apply Costs and Benefits Analysis
(CBA) Approach

1 Determining evaluation criteria

2 Identification of costs and benefits (effects)
Steps of CBA: 3 Quantification of costs and benefits
4 Valuation (techniques)
5 Discounting (to present value)
6 Determination of time horizon (lifetime)
7 Financial, Econ. & Social CBA (B/C, NPV & IRR)
 Methods
Number : HK.02.03/SNVT/AT&ABNT.II/AT&AB.I/40/I/2017
Date : 17 January 2017
Item of work : Pembangunan Sarana dan Prasarana Irigasi Air Tanah di Pulau Timor dan
Project Kepulauan (Construction of Groundwater Irrigation Infrastructures in Timor
description and islands)

Contract value : IDR. 1.362.731.000,00

Location : Desa Kuanheun, Kecamatan Amabi Oefeto, Kabupaten Kupang

Fund : APBN Rupiah Murni (National Budget Allocation)

DIPA : Satuan Kerja Non Vertikal Tertentu Air Tanah dan Air Baku Nusa Tenggara II
Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur
Methods
 Findings
No. Data Remarks
1. Drilling well discharge 4.46 liter/second
2. Cost estimation of project IDR. 1.362.731.000,00
3. Interview results:
Main puIDRose of construction of drilling well For paddy cultivation
Land productivity (paddy) 2 ton/ha
Dry grain selling price IDR. 4.000,00/kg
Seed selling price IDR. 10.000,00/kg
Functional area 8 Ha
Type of crop Paddy
Operation and maintenance Farmers are workers who are organized in farmers group, and no
additional labor. There is no operational cost, since the pump is run by
solar system.

Water source Rain fed and drilling well

 Findings
Options for planting:

Option Period 1 – wet Period 2 – late Period 3 – dry

season wet season season
1 8 ha 4 ha -
2 8 ha 4 ha 4 ha
 Findings
CBA for existing planting scenarios:
Cropping pattern Paddy – Paddy (2 periods) Paddy – Paddy – Paddy (3
periods)

Interest rate 10% 10%

Present Value Benefits
Present Value Costs
Initial investment
Net Present Value (NPV)
B/C Ratio
Internal Rate of Return
IDR 784,071,843.27
IDR 36,041,493.31
IDR 1,362,731,000.00
Minus IDR 614.700.650,04
0.56
6.83%
IDR 1,032,788,800.66
IDR 47,474,285.60
IDR 1,362,731,000.00
Minus IDR 377,416,484.98
0.72
8.20%
 New Scenarios
Crops Month Period Stage Eff Rain Irr. Req Well Water
excess
(l/s) (l/s) (l/s) (l/s)
Dec 1 Init 0.0024 0.0017 4.46 4.46
Dec 2 Init 0.0035 0.0005 4.46 4.46
Scenario 1: Dec 3 Deve 0.0044 0.2716 4.46 4.19
Paddy-Paddy-Fallow- Maize Jan 1 Deve 0.0056 0.0324 4.46 4.43
Jan 2 Deve 0.0066 0.0313 4.46 4.43
Jan 3 Mid 0.0063 0.0369 4.46 4.42
Scenario 2: Paddy
Feb 1 Mid 0.006 0.0348 4.46 4.43
Paddy-Paddy-Peanut Feb 2 Mid 0.0058 0.0358 4.46 4.42
Feb 3 Mid 0.0053 0.0293 4.46 4.43
Mar 1 Late 0.0049 0.04 4.46 4.42
Mar 2 Late 0.0045 0.0407 4.46 4.42
Mar 3 Late 0.0035 0.046 4.46 4.41
 New Scenarios
CBA for NEW planting scenarios:
New Cropping pattern Paddy – Paddy – Maize Paddy – Paddy - Peanut

Interest rate 10% 10%

Present Value Benefits IDR. 2.745.567.532,19 IDR. 3.625.994.063,74

Present Value Costs IDR. 43.497.584,48 IDR 234.217.762,57

Initial Investment IDR. 1.362.731.000,00 IDR. 1.362.731.000,00

Net Present Value (NPV) IDR. 1.339.338.947,71 IDR. 2.056.045.301,17

B/C Ratio 1,95 2,29

Internal Rate of Return 24% 30%

 Final Remarks
• Need irrigation modernization
– Provision of water based on actual need of each
growing stage
• New input of irrigation infrastructure needs
improvement of farmers capacity