Assessment of Building Stock

of Pakistan

Muhammad Ahmed
PhD Scholar (DRR)
NED University of Engineering and Technology-Karachi
 October 08, 2005

• 7.6 Mw Earthquake
• 79000 Fatalities
• Permanent Disability (more than 100,000)
• 3 Million people homeless
• 0.5 Million Structure
• Lifeline infrastructure
 Earthquakes don't kill

"Earthquakes don't kill – they don't create

damage – if there's nothing to damage,"
(Eric Calais)
 Hazard VS Disaster
• Hazard-Potential for disturbing the natural
environment

• Disaster-is a serious disruption of the

functioning of a society, causing widespread
human, material, or environmental losses
which exceed the ability of the affected
society to cope using its own resources
 Rich Vs Poor Country
• 2010 Earthquake
– Haiti (7.0 Mw- January 12)
• No Experience
• Poverty
• Masonry
– Chile (8.8 Mw- February 27)
• Long history of handling seismic activities
• Wealthier
• Strict Building codes
• Robust emergency response
Assessment of Building Stocks of Pakistan

• Identification of Buildings Typology

• Spatial Distribution of Buildings
• Damage Probability Matrix (DPM)
Percentage of Existing Buildings Types in
Pakistan

7.64% 3.30% 1.62% Brick Masonry

5.19%
Adobe Masonry
5.27% RC Buildings
Wood/Bamboo Reincorced
14.60% 62.38% Stone Masonry
Block Masonry
Others
Brick Masonry Buildings
Adobe Masonry Buildings
RC Buildings
Wood/Bamboo Reinforced Buildings
Stone Masonry Buildings
Block Masonry Buildings
Other Buildings
Damage Probability Matrix (DPM)
V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
Building Type
0.23 0.97 4.86 20.75 53.06 83.32 96.32 99.26
Reinforced Concrete (RC)

Stone (M1) 2.35 11.41 37.38 71.60 92.49 98.51 99.66 99.90

Adobe (M2) 3.99 17.82 48.74 80.50 95.52 99.10 99.78 99.93

Brick (M5) 1.40 7.06 27.22 61.28 87.92 97.50 99.47 99.86

Wood (M7) 0.92 4.62 19.96 51.94 82.62 96.13 99.22 99.80

Block (M8) 1.40 7.06 27.22 61.28 87.92 97.50 99.47 99.86

Average 1.72 8.16 27.56 57.89 83.25 95.34 98.99 99.77

Moderate + Extensive + Complete Damages

 Damage Grades Description
Grade 0 (D0):
No structural and Non-structural Damage
No damage

Grade 1 (D1): Hair-line cracks in very few walls. Fall of small pieces
Negligible to slight damage (no structural damage, slight of plaster only. Fall of loose stones from parts of
non-structural damage) buildings in very few cases.

Grade 2 (D2):
Moderate damage (slight structural damage, moderate Cracks in many walls. Fall of fairly large pieces of
non-structural damage) plaster. Partial collapse of chimneys.

Large and extensive cracks in most walls. Roof tiles

Grade 3 (D3):
detach. Chimneys fracture at the roof line; failure of
Substantial to heavy damage (moderate structural
individual non-structural elements (partitions, gable
damage, heavy non-structural damage)
walls)

Grade 4 (D4): Serious failure of walls; partial structural failure of

Very heavy damage (heavy structural damage, very heavy roofs and floors.
non-structural damage)

Grade 5 (D5):
Total or near total collapse
Destruction (very heavy structural damage)
Intensity Description
V Felt by nearly everyone; many awakened. Some dishes, windows broken.
Unstable objects overturned. Pendulum clocks may stop
VI Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances
of fallen plaster. Damage slight
VII Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to
moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly
built or badly designed structures.
VIII Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in
ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in
poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns,
monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned
IX Damage considerable in specially designed structures; well-designed
frame structures thrown out of plumb. Damage great in substantial
buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations (14) (PDF)
Observed damages in Pakistan due to 16 April 2013 Iran earthquake.
X Some well-built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame
structures destroyed with foundations. Rails bent
The Proportions of Distinct Kind of Buildings in
Seismic Zone Of Pakistan

More than 60% of Building stock

located in seismic zone 2A

Whereas 2.32% located zone 4

The reinforced concrete frame

structure mostly dominate in
Zone 2B.
 Risk Assessment in Seismic Zone 2A
• More than 50% of the total population
of Pakistan lives in zone 2A Seismic Zone 2A
• This zone is relatively less seismic
and has not probability of exceeding
intensities greater than VI.
• The zone has the largest share of
total building stock of Pakistan, which Reinforced Concrete
1.36% 4.91% Bricks
is around 60% 12.61% 6.58%
Blocks
• At intensity VI the average probability 0.59% Stone
Adobe
of damage is about 8.16% of total 1.14%
Wood
buildings of this zone Others

• The zone covers most parts of the

Punjab and almost all of Sindh 72.80%

excluding Karachi. The important

cities of the zones are Lahore,
Faisalabad, Hyderabad, Multan,
Kasur etc.
 Risk Assessment in Zone 2B

The largest zone in term of area, includes Seismic Zone 2B

Karachi, Islamabad, and Peshawar etc.

This zone shares 27% buildings and 30%

population of the Country.
Reinforced
16.92%
Concrete
15.58% 2.51% 1.29%
17% reinforced concrete buildings in the Bricks
Blocks
zone; and the least probability of damage for 6.81%
Stone
RC buildings in this zone is 4.86%, while Adobe
Wood
maximum probability of damage is 20.75% 7.88% Others

49.01%
 Risk Assessment in Zone 4

The zone experienced very high seismic Seismic Zone 4

activities especially the Kashmir Earthquake
2005 and 1935 Quetta Earthquake.

Zone has a probability of observing maximum

intensity, means 100% collapse of existing Reinforced
Concrete
buildings. 2.99% 2.14% 1.94% Bricks
12.77% Blocks
Stone
If the maximum possible intensity is assumed to Adobe

be X at EMS scale then only 4.66% of the 20.73% 53.93% Wood

Others
buildings on average can be called as resilient. 5.50%

The notable areas within this zone include

Muzfarabad, Quetta, Gawadar and Runn-of-
Kutchh.
 Validation of the DPM

Earthquake Observed Using DPM Accuracy Level

(+ )
Muzaffarabad October 8, 4,79,000 401,512 83%
2005
Kash, April 16, 2013 2944 2570 87%
Mirpur, September 24, 2019 NA 21,931 ??
Thank You