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Maps Results

10/17/2019 Model
Outline Why groundwater model (GWM) is needed? 1
Mathematical and numerical models 2
Modelling protocol 3
Model design 4
Calibration
and validation 5
Groundwater
flow model 6
MODFLOW
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Why groundwater model is needed?

To make predictions about a groundwater

01 system’s response to a stress

To understand the system

02

To design field studies

03
Use as a thinking tool
04
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1 To describe the system in order to

analyse various assumptions

Purposes To generate a hypothetical system that will be

of GWM 2 used to study principles of groundwater flow
associated with various general or specific
problems.

3 To predict or forecast expected artificial

or natural changes in the system.
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Mathematical and numerical models

the model takes the
form of a set of
mathematical The preferred
equations. method of solution of
 mathematical the mathematical
model of a given Due to the
model.
problem is the heterogeneity of the
analytical solution. considered domain,
the irregular shape of
its boundaries, ….the
transform the
solving of analytical
mathematical model into
is not possible.
a numerical one, solving
it by means of computer
programs.
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• Describe the entire flow field at the same time, providing What is numerical models?
solutions for as many data points as specified by user.
• The study area is subdivides into many small cells or
elements.
• A basic groundwater flow equation is solved for each cell
usually considering its water balance (water inputs and
outputs).
• The solution of a numeric model is the distribution of
hydraulic heads at points representing individual cells.
• The points can place in the center of the cell, at
intersections between adjacent cells, or elsewhere.
• The basic differential flow equation for each cell is
replaced by an algebraic equation.
• This system of algebraic equation is solved numerically,
through an iterative process, thus name “numerical
models”
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Steady State and Transient Modeling

• Steady state flow - the magnitude and direction of flow -
constant with time throughout the entire domain (hydraulic head
no change) (flow in the same as flow out).
• Transient flow - the magnitude and direction of the flow changes
with time (hydraulic head change) (flow in different from flow out)

 h  h  h h
( Kx )  ( Ky )  ( Kz )  Ss  R *
x x y y z z t
• When steady state flow occurs, time is no longer an
independent variable and thus the storage term in the
groundwater flow equation disappears;

 h  h  h
( Kx )  ( Ky )  ( Kz )  0
x x y y z z
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What is numerical models?

The two most
widely applied
numerical models

Finite differences Finite element

- Difficult to
- Easy to design explain and
and understand program
- Require less - Require much
mathematical time to set up
involvement input data
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• Establish the Purpose of the

GWM protocol Define Purpose Model
• Develop Conceptual Model of
the System
Field data Conceptual Model
• Select Governing Equations and
Computer Code
Select Software • Model Design
• Calibration
• Calibration Sensitivity Analysis
Field data Design Model
• Model Verification
• Prediction
Run & N
Calibration OK? • Predictive Sensitivity Analysis
Y • Presentation of Modeling
Design and Results
Present Results
• Post Audit
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Define Purpose

1. What is the application of the model?

2. What do you want to learn from the model?
3. What do you want the model to answer?
4. Do you really need mathematical model?
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Define Purpose 1. What is the application of the model?

Scientific Describe and investigate hydrologic processes

Assess the state of hydrologic system and more

quantitative information: magnitude, quality, and
distribution of available water
Engineering
Predict future effects of human activities on
Point of hydrologic system (urbanization, extent of
agricultural land use, over-pumping, climate change,
view sea level rise…)
Management Requirements Availability Limitation
Water supply Surface water Quality
Pollution control Groundwater Water level
Food regulation Velocities
Planning
Power plants…
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• Establish the Purpose of the

GWM protocol Define Purpose Model
• Develop Conceptual Model of
the System
Field data Conceptual Model
• Select Governing Equations and
Computer Code
Select Software • Model Design
• Calibration
• Calibration Sensitivity Analysis
Field data Design Model
• Model Verification
• Prediction
Run & N
Calibration OK? • Predictive Sensitivity Analysis
Y • Presentation of Modeling
Design and Results
Present Results
• Post Audit
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Conceptual Model

01 Initial and important part

Require understanding hydrogeology, hydrology, and dynamic of

groundwater flow, or water chemistry in and around of study
02 area.

conceptual model has been simplified as much as possible but

03 enough complexity so that it adequately reproduces system behavior.

04 The final result is a computerized data base, and simplified maps

and cross-sections that will be used in the model design.
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Conceptual Model Include:

the relevant hydrologic phenomena

the system boundaries

the characteristics of the hydrologic system

the mathematical model which describes the relevant processes

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Conceptual Model 1- the relevant hydrologic phenomena

1. Requires professional skill.

2. Can skip a relevant hydrologic process which was not
described with the mathematical description.
3. Be therefore always critical on the results of the
modelling simulation phase.
4. Precipitation.
5. Deep well infiltration.
6. Contamination sources.
7. Groundwater extraction.
8. Fow direction of water.
9. Solute.
 to summarize the magnitudes of the flows and the
changes in storage
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Conceptual Model Include:

the relevant hydrologic phenomena

the system boundaries

the characteristics of the hydrologic system

the mathematical model which describes the relevant processes

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Conceptual Model 2- the system boundaries

1. Identify kinds of the boundaries

2. When possible, the natural hydrological boundaries
of the system should be used.
3. In groundwater problems, the impermeable base is
a logical no-flow boundary at the lower part of the
model.
4. Obviously, in many cases, a natural boundary is not
available: then an artificial boundary is simulated.
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Conceptual Model 2- the system boundaries

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Conceptual Model Include:

the relevant hydrologic phenomena

the system boundaries

the characteristics of the hydrologic system

the mathematical model which describes the relevant processes

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Conceptual Model 3- the characteristics of the hydrologic system

1. Subsoil parameters: geometry, position of layers, hydraulic

conductivity, transmissivity, porosity, specific storativity,
dispersion…
2. In- and outflows: precipitation, evaporation,
evapotranspiration, surface runoff (overland flow), natural
groundwater recharge, …
3. Initial conditions: piezometric head and solute concentration,
4. Geochemical data: cations (e.g. Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+) and anions
(e.g. SO 42- , HCO3- , Cl−), temperature, pH, trace metals,
isotopes and organic compounds.
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Conceptual Model Include:

the relevant hydrologic phenomena

the system boundaries

the characteristics of the hydrologic system

the mathematical model which describes the relevant processes

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4- the mathematical model which describes

Conceptual Model
the relevant processes

1. What code is best in solving your particular problem ?

2. What are the data requirements for both code and problem ?
3. What computer hardware and supporting staff are required ?
4. How much will the computer code cost ?
5. How accurate will the code be in representing the real world ?
Examples of conceptual model 24
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• Establish the Purpose of the

GWM protocol Define Purpose Model
• Develop Conceptual Model of
the System
Field data Conceptual Model
• Select Governing Equations and
Computer Code
Select Software • Model Design
• Calibration
• Calibration Sensitivity Analysis
Field data Design Model
• Model Verification
• Prediction
Run & N
Calibration OK? • Predictive Sensitivity Analysis
Y • Presentation of Modeling
Design and Results
Present Results
• Post Audit
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Select Software
Many other programs are based on MODFLOW:
1. Public domain/open source
1. MT3DMS (multi-species solute or heat transport, some reactions, dual
porosity) (Chunmiao Zheng, U Alabama)
2. MODPATH (particle tracking) (Dave Pollock, USGS)
3. SEAWAT (density-dependent transport using MODFLOW and MT3DMS) (Chris
Langevin, USGS)
4. Phreeqc connections (PHT3D) (geochemical calculation) (Henning Prommer)
2. Commercial
1. MODHMS-Surfact (Integrated surface water/groundwater)
2. GUI’s (Graphic User Interface): Visual MODFLOW, Groundwater Vistas, GMS
(Groundwater Modeling System), PMWin (Processing MODFLOW for window),
…
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• Establish the Purpose of the

GWM protocol Define Purpose Model
• Develop Conceptual Model of
the System
Field data Conceptual Model
• Select Governing Equations and
Computer Code
Select Software • Model Design
• Calibration
• Calibration Sensitivity Analysis
Field data Design Model
• Model Verification
• Prediction
Run & N
Calibration OK? • Predictive Sensitivity Analysis
Y • Presentation of Modeling
Design and Results
Present Results
• Post Audit
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Design Model

1. Design domain
2. Select length of time steps (when transient)
3. Set up boundary and initial condition
4. Select initial values for system parameters

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Design Model 1. Design domain

j, columns

1. An aquifer system is divided

i, rows
into rectangular block by a
grid.
2. The grid is organized by row
k, layers
(i), column (j), and layer (k)
and each block is called a
“grid cell”
---- Aquifer boundary
 Active cell
 Inactive cell
rj Dimension of cell along the Row direction
cl Dimension of cell along the Column direction
K Dimension of cell along the Vertical direction
Subscript (j, i, k) indicate the numbers of Column, Row, and Layer
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Design Model 1. Design domain

1. Uniform grid cells

2. Non-uniform grid cells
3. Effects of grid size?

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Design Model

1. Design domain
2. Select length of time steps (when transient)
3. Set up boundary and initial condition
4. Select initial values for system parameters

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 Steady State and Transient Modeling 32

• Steady state flow - the magnitude and direction of flow - constant with time throughout
the entire domain (hydraulic head no change) (flow in the same as flow out).

• Transient flow - the magnitude and direction of the flow changes with time (hydraulic
head change) (flow in different from flow out)

• When steady state flow occurs, time is no longer an independent variable and thus
the storage term in the groundwater flow equation disappears;

• Below are simplified equations that describe transient and groundwater flow:
Steady State flow Transient flow

𝝏(𝝆𝒘𝒒𝒘) 𝝏(𝝆𝒘𝒒𝒘) 𝝏(𝝆𝒘𝒒𝒘) 𝝏(𝝆𝒘𝒒𝒘) 𝝏(𝝆𝒘𝒒𝒘) 𝝏(𝝆𝒘𝒒𝒘) 𝝏(𝝆𝒘𝝋𝑺𝒘)

+ + =𝟎 + + =
𝝏𝒙 𝝏𝒚 𝝏𝒛 𝝏𝒙 𝝏𝒚 𝝏𝒛 𝝏𝒕

𝝆𝒘 = density of water 𝝆𝒘 = density of water

𝒒𝒘 = Darcy flux of water 𝒒𝒘 = Darcy flux of water
𝝋 = porosity
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𝑺𝒘 = saturation
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Design Model 2. Select length of time steps (when transient)

The length of the time step depends on the dynamic character of the hydrologic process.

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Design Model 2. Select length of time steps (when transient)

• Transient models simulate changes over time
• Necessary when boundary conditions vary with time (e.g., pumping rates, recharge, river stage,
etc.)
• Stress period:
• Period of time during which boundary conditions are constant
• Stress periods can have multiple time steps
• Boundary conditions can change at the beginning of a stress period
e.g., one month Time Steps Time Steps Time Steps

Time
Stress period Stress period Stress period

Pumping and boundary

e.g., one year conditions can change

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Design Model

1. Design domain
2. Select length of time steps (when transient)
3. Set up boundary and initial condition
4. Select initial values for system parameters

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Design Model 3. Set up boundary condition

Dirichlet Boundary Neumann Boundary Cauchy Boundary
(Specified head (Specified flow/flux (Head dependent flow
boundary) boundary) boundary)
• Head is given • a specified flux or flow • hb=constant
• h=constant, condition • q=c(hb-hm)
• q is determined by • q=constant • c=f(K,L) is conductance
the model • h is determined by the • hm is determined by the
• Water level at a lake model model
or the sea. • Natural groundwater • Leakage to or from a river,
recharge, injection well,… lake or reservoir;
• No flow boundary (no head, evapotranspiration
no flux)
• Groundwater divide, a
streamline, fresh-saline
interface, impermeable fault
zone, mountain,… 10/17/2019
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Design Model 3. Set up initial condition

• Definition of initial conditions means specifying the head distribution

throughout the system at some particular time.
• These specified heads can be considered reference heads;
 calculated changes in head through time will be relative to these given
heads, and the time represented by these reference heads becomes the
reference time.
• As a convenience, this reference time is usually specified as zero; an initial
condition gives head as a function of position at t = 0; that is,
h = f(x,y,z; t = 0)
• This notation suggests that, conceptually, initial conditions may be regarded
as a boundary condition in time.
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Design Model

1. Design domain
2. Select length of time steps (when transient)
3. Set up boundary and initial condition
4. Select initial values for system parameters

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Design Model 4. Select initial values for system parameters

Observation
wells Hydraulic Dispersion Evapo-
Pumping conductivity transpiration
wells Storage Recharge

Longitudinal Recharge rate

Head Pumping/ Horizontal/ Porosity Evapotranspiration
dispersion
Concen- Injection well vertical K Specific yield rate
Molecular
tration Specific storage Affected depth
diffusion

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• Establish the Purpose of the

GWM protocol Define Purpose Model
• Develop Conceptual Model of
the System
Field data Conceptual Model
• Select Governing Equations and
Computer Code
Select Software • Model Design
• Calibration
• Calibration Sensitivity Analysis
Field data Design Model
• Model Verification
• Prediction
Run & N
Calibration OK? • Predictive Sensitivity Analysis
Y • Presentation of Modeling
Design and Results
Present Results
• Post Audit
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Run &
Model calibration process
Calibration OK?

Estimate model Run

parameters model

Adjust Assess
inputs results
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Run &
When is the model calibrated?
Calibration OK?
Trial and error
method

Recharge/
Hydraulic
discharge
conductivity
rate

Good
fitness

Observed heads/Concentrations Calculated heads/Concentrations

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Run &
How is a good fitness?
Calibration OK?

Root Mean Squared?

Correlation Coefficient?
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Run &
How is a good fitness?
Calibration OK?

𝑁= # Forecast/observation
𝑵 pairs
𝟏
𝑹𝑴𝑺𝑬 = ෍(𝒇𝒊 − 𝑶𝒊 )𝟐 𝑓=Forecast
𝑵 𝑂=Observation
𝒊=𝟏

• Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is the standard

deviation of the residuals (prediction errors).
• Residuals are a measure of how far from the
regression line data points are;
• RMSE is a measure of how spread out these
residuals are. In other words, it tells you how
concentrated the data is around the line of best fit.
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Run &
How is a good fitness?
Calibration OK?
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Run &
Sensitivity analysis
Calibration OK?
During calibration, if the result Hydraulic
becomes completely different conductivity
from the field data, the field
work need to be rechecked.
Head boundary
Change of
heads/
concentrations
carried out the sensitivity Recharge rate
analysis to check what
parameters have an effect on Dispersion
the groundwater model Storage

such variations in the future would influence significantly on head behavior

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• Establish the Purpose of the

GWM protocol Define Purpose Model
• Develop Conceptual Model of
the System
Field data Conceptual Model
• Select Governing Equations and
Computer Code
Select Software • Model Design
• Calibration
• Calibration Sensitivity Analysis
Field data Design Model
• Model Verification
• Prediction
Run & N
Calibration OK? • Predictive Sensitivity Analysis
Y • Presentation of Modeling
Design and Results
Present Results
• Post Audit