National Composite Certification

& Evaluation Facility

 SOLARIMPULSE | SOLVAY

World Energy – Usage Forecast

European Eco Friendly Transport!
 Low Mass Transport Systems

 It is common convention to describe Newton’s 2nd Law

Force = Mass x Acceleration

 Thus if we reduce the mass of a moving object, we reduce the energy

required to move it.

 The passenger to weight ratio of a vehicle or aircraft is a key measure

of its energy consumption efficiency.

Paradox – rising fuel costs and increasing

vehicle/airframe weights
 Kg
1550
Vehicle Weight by Generation
1450
VW
Vectra Golf Mk5
1350 2
Toyota
Corolla
1250
Vectra VW
1 Golf Mk4
Toyota
1150 Corolla
Astra
Toyota Cavalier Astra
VW Mk5
Mk4 Ford
1050 Corolla Mk3
Vauxhall Toyota Golf Mk3 Focus
Cavalier Mk1 Toyota Cavalier Ford Citroen
Mk2 Corolla
Toyota Corolla Escort MK5 Xsara
950
Corolla Citroen
VW Ford ZX
Citroen Ford Golf Mk2 Escort MK4 Astra
850 Citroen
GS Escort MK2 Mk3
Ford BX
VW Astra Escort MK3 Astra Source: Jaguar
Golf Mk1 Mk1 Mk2 YEARS
750

1998

2000

2002
1986

1988

1990

1992

1994
1970

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1996

2004
1972

1974
 Fuel Burn
50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 2020

20% more efficient engines

30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics
Streamlined ATM? Cathay Pacific – 12% wasted fuel

“Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020”

Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better?

Date Oil Price per Barrel

20-Jun-05 ~$60

21-Apr-06 ~$75

20-Nov-07 ~$100

27-Jul-08 ~$147

08-Dec-08 ~$42

Dec-09 ~$80+

World Production 85 million barrels per day (1 barrel = 168 litres)

“Recession” consumption 83½ million barrels per day (Winter 2008)
Price level required for investment in new capacity - $75 - $85 per barrel

At $100 Barrel - Aircraft Operations lost $14.2 billion in 2010

NB: Profit of $14 billion would represent an operating margin of 7%
 An Economic Crisis

“ COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature industry

at the end of its current product life cycle, our
Industry requires a more efficient aircraft – a
composite airframe, advanced engines and electric
systems!”
Product Performance The Technology S Curve

Third Technology

Second Technology

First Technology

Time or Engineering Effort

 The Technology S Curve
“Sustaining”
Technology Innovation

Big Companies Need A

Product Performance

Continuous Process

Third Technology

Second Technology

First Technology

Time or Engineering Effort

 Flying Wing
Commercial Aircraft De-regulation

CompositesEUREKA TIMES
Approx. 30% 787
improvement over A380
Activity Index 50 years A300

DC-10
747

Pan-Am

Tu-104 707, Swept Wing, Jets

Comet

Jetliner - 102 30% efficiency

Constellation improvement over 5-
10 years
TWA

Pressured Cabin – Boeing 307

Merlin Engine

War Technology Boeing 707 Golden

Anniversary
Aluminium Aeroplane

DC3
Timeline

1930’s 1940’s 1960’s 1970’s 2004

1927 – 1932 Biplanes to Monoplanes

Vickers Vernon (1927) Boeing 247 (1932)

 Metal Construction
 Monocoque (Stressed-Skin) Construction
 Cantilevered Wing
 Variable Pitch Propeller
 Reliable Engine
 Retractable Landing Gear
Armstrong Whitworth Argosy
 Business Opportunity
 Airbus A320 $61-$67m - Annual full bill $20m
 JET ‘A’ Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $5.23 in 2011
( 70% of operators cost )
 If we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisle
 1 kg reduction in wt saves $3,000 yr ( $90,000 over lifetime – source EADS )
 A320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~34 per month ( 25% cut next 2 yrs )
 Airbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 years
 General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in
2011 and there is no room absorb increased prices - lean programmes already
running.

Air France A320 fleet is 20+ years old and needs replacing!
 Evolution or Revolution
 New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747
Classic)
Options
A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft “sales” value $64m-$70m each (2010)
 Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12% fuel saving (2014)
 New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving?
- aircraft sales value $80 – $90m each ( 2020-22 !!! )
 400 aircraft per year @ $20m → $8bn extra sales
 “CHICKEN AND EGG” (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!)
 Retention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirements
 Customers want new aircraft now!
 Will Boeing lead Airbus?
 New mainstream single aisle manufacturer?

“ A Revolutionary Idea changes the existing paradigm”

 Automotive Industry Composites

Activity
Material developments
Index

Design & Engine developments

Automotive is lagging Aero by

one TRISS curve. Aluminium is
now in mass production,
Can we then assume Carbon
MASS Production is coming?

Timeline

1910’s 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1980’s 2006

 Future Transport

Volkswagen XL Super Efficiency Vehicle 2023

Challenges
 Challenges
Our world has enjoyed 60 continuous years of growth and prosperity.
We are now entering a period of disruption.

 What is the problem ?

- Energy ( population & affluence )

 What is the solution?

– Efficient ‘kinetic’ Systems

 What actions must we take?

- new materials ( C fibre ,resins etc )

 How do we get ‘there’ quickly?

 Energy Conversion

“Age of
Efficiency”
Oil &
(Carbon dioxide emissions)

Electricity
Energy Consumption

(nuclear)

Coal &
Steam

Wood &
Fire

1820 1920 2020

 World Carbon Fibre Consumption by Major
Market (thousand of metric ton)
Compound Annual Growth Rates 2004-2010
Industrial 10.8%
Aircraft / Aerospace 14.0%
Sporting Goods 3.1%

16%
22%

27% 43.0
21.9
52% KMT 54% KMT
16.7
49% KMT 30%
26%
24%

1999 2004 2010

 Carbon Fibre Manufacture
Crude Oil Fuel, chemicals, plastics

Ethylene
Naptha

Propylene Polypropylene

Ammonia Acryonitrile (4.5 Metric ABS, SANS, Nylon

Tonne)

Methyl Acrylate/ Pan precursor

Vinyl Acetate
(2.5 Metric Tonne)
Textile fibre
Gas/Electricity

Electricity Oxidised fibre Carbon/carbon brakes

textile applications

Waste gases 50%

Electricity Carbon fibre 40,000 tpa
Source: Chris Wilkinson
Source: Chris Wilkinson
Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes)
2006-2023 Confirmed Forecast
Scenario Scenario

2006 2010 2020 2020

Civil Aviation
Existing aircraft
(A320, B777 etc) 3,700 5,200 3,400 2,000
B747 Replacement 2,600
B777 Replacement 6,000

A380 200 2,000 2,000 2,200

A350 - - 2,700 8,500
B787 100 3,000 6,000 6,000
New B737 and A32X - - 15,000 15,000
Military
Fighters, transport, helicopters 900 1,250 1,800 3,600

Regional Aircraft and Business Jets 230 488 625 1,200

Total 5,130 11,938 31,525 47,100

Wind Energy 3,750 7,500 78,000 130,000

Sports 5,420 6,660 8,330 9,000

Industrial (including gas tanks) 9,860 14,560 25,830 34,000

Other uses (including anti-ballistic & medical) 1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000

Automotive 1,800 2,100 96,000 120,000

Grand total 26,960 43,758 240,685 342,100

Forecast 2023 1.5 - 1.8m tonnes/year

The Future is not Faraway

Thank You.