SUPPLY OF HUMAN

RESOURCES
(DIFFERENT TECHNIQUES)

Mamun Muztaba
MC, BIM
 HR Supply Forecasting
Categories

Two types of forecasting:

Judgmental / Qualitative
Statistical / Quantitative
Judgmental treat employees as individuals and forecast
their movements person by person. (e.g. HR Inventories,
Succession Planning)

Statistical technique treats employees as numbers and

forecast their movements based on probabilities. (e.g.
Vacancy Analysis, Markov/ Transition Analysis)
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SUCCESSION PLANNING

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 SUCCESSION PLANNING

Succession planning is the process of

Identifying & developing suitable team
members who are able to replace key
positions as and when required.

Individual Plan: A succession plan for a position viewed as unique

and/or specialized, for which there is only one incumbent.

Pooled Plan: A succession plan for multiple incumbents in similar

positions, for which incumbents and candidates are grouped
together. 4
 PURPOSE & BENEFITS
To have timely availability of experienced and diverse
employees prepared to fill leadership positions as they
become available. The program will:

 Help the organisation develop and nurture its human capital.

 It will assure a continuing sequence of qualified people to

move up and take over the current generation of managers &
leaders that retire or move on rather than recruiting from
outside.

 Thereby fill key positions with people able to carry on & excel.
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 PURPOSE & BENEFITS
(Cont.)

 Focus on leadership continuity and improved knowledge

shared.

 Increase professional commitment and retention of

management positions

 Shift from job progression to job expansion.

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Succession & Development Planning

Process

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 SUCCESSION & DEVELOPMENT
PLANNING PROCESS

Identification of key Positions

Evaluation of Potential
Replacement Inventory
Competency Mapping
Individual Development Plan

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 Key Position

A key position is one that exerts critical influence on the

organization's activities-strategically, operationally or both.

Key Position Criteria

• Critical Task
• Specialized Competency
• Organizational Structure
• Work Load

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 Identification of Key Positions

Organization chart w.e.f Deptt:

PHOTO

1
G17 NAME

PHOTO Name Name PHOTO

G16

Name
G14 PHOTO

2
PHOTO3 PHOTO Name Name PHOTO
G13/14 Name

G-11/12 PHOTO PHOTO PHOTO 4 PHOTO

Name Name Name Name

G-10/9

Name Name Name Name Name Name

PHOTO PHOTO PHOTO PHOTO PHOTO PHOTO

Key Positions
 Evaluation of Potential

Prepare High Potential Selection Grid

High
3 1 Potential

Promotion Promotion
due as per
Potential 4 2 Career Plan

Well
Placed

ME EE FEE

Last Evaluation Score 11

 Replacement Inventory

Prepare Replacement Inventory

Deptt :

Key Position- Key Position- Key Position- Key Position- Readiness

1 2 3 4 Scale
<Name> <Name> <Name> <Name>
Successor –1 Successor –1 Ready Now
<Name> <Name>
Successor –2 Successor –2 Successor –1 Ready within
<Name> <Name> <Name> one year
Successor –3 Successor –1 Ready within
<Name> <Name> 2-3 years

Priority Position 12
 Competency Mapping

No Competency Model Fit

Competency Mapping
1 Action Oriented 7.5% 3.0%
8 2 Influence Ability 5.0% 2.0%
7
6 3 Composure 2.0% 1.0%
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4 4 Conflict 5.5% 5.0%
3
2
Management
1 5 InterpersonalSavvy 3.0% 5.0%
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 6 Listening 6.5% 6.0%
7 Negotiating 1.0% 2.0%
8 Organizational 3.0% 4.0%
Training Need Agility
Mr.
X(Successor) 9 Perseverance 7.0% 5.0%
Priority Gaps 10 Presentation Skills 8.0% 0.0%
Position
Requirement … Others 3.0% 2.0%
TM s Strengths TOTAL 100.0% 61.0%

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 Individual Development Plan

Individual Development Plan (IDP)

Name Position Da te
Department Manager

Goals
to be achieved
Competencies
to be learned
or acquired
Actions
t o be taken
Resources
that are needed
(money, time, etc.)
Time Frame
Start Complete
Actions will be in the
Short -range
Critical within form of
present position
(1 year)
• Classroom Trg.
• Management
Development Prg.
Mid -range

• Job Rotation
Important for
growth within
present or
future position
(2 years)
• Shadow Projects.

Long -range
Helpful for
achieving career
goals
(3 years)

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 Update Replacement Inventory

Resignations Promotions,
Changed & Transfers
Interests,
Strengths or Reorganizations
Development
Needs
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 SUCCESSION PLAN SUMMARY
ORGANIZATION:_____________________
Position Succession Candidate
Vulnerability Names
Incumbent
Key Position Title
Name Open in Open in Open in Ready in Ready in Ready in
< 1 Yr 1–3 Yrs 3 + Yrs
< 1 Yr 1–3 Yrs 3 + Yrs
 IMPLEMENTATION OF SUCCESSION
PLAN:

Implementation of such plan requires current management

to provide dedicated instructions and guidance skills,
knowledge and abilities required for potential employees.

Participant employees are expected to have the potential

to increase their understanding & capacity to manage and
lead within the organisation.

Potential employees must commit to continuous learning

& demonstrate the ability to work with others, facilitate
effectively with limited authority, build consensus and gain
results. 17
 Markov Analysis

Markov Model
A model that produces a series of matrices that detail the various patterns of
movement to and from the various jobs in the organization.
Andrey Andreyevich Markov (June 14, 1856 – July 20, 1922) was a Russian
mathematician. Andrey Andreyevich Markov introduced the Markov chains in 1906
when he produced the first theoretical results for stochastic processes by using the
term “chain” for the first time.

Markov models, also referred to as Probabilistic (using probabilities of various

movement options) or Stochastic Models, determine the pattern of the employee
movement throughout an organization’s systems of jobs.
It also called transitional matrixes.
 Markov Analysis

The basis of Markov Analysis is the historical Pattern of

Job stability & movement among the workforce of an
organization.
 In between two consecutive period (T & T+1) an
employee can face one of the 5 following situations:
1. Stable (remain in the same position)
2. Promotion
3. Lateral Transfer
4. Demotion
5. Exit

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 Markov Analysis

Consider an example where the manpower system is made up

five levels;
(i) Executive (Ex)
(ii) Senior Executive (SE)
(iii) Assistant Manager (AM)
(iv) Manager (M)
(v) Senior Manager (SM)

The data for these employees are given below

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 Markov Analysis

Particulars Ex SE AM M SM
No. of Employee 2000 600 600 200 100
Employee Turnover Rates 7% 15% 15% 10% 18%
Employee Demotion Rates - - 01% 04% 02%
Promoted to next level 05% 01% 06% 10% -
From the above information given, we are constructing the
Markov or transitional matrix as follows:
From/ To Ex SE AM M SM Exit
Ex (2000) .88 = 1760 .05 = 100 - - - .07 (140)
SE (600) - .84 = 504 .01 = 06 - - .15 (90)
AM (600) - .01 = 06 .78 = 468 .06 = 36 - .15 (90)

M (200) - - .04 = 08 .76 = 152 .10 = 20 .10 (20)

SM (100) - - .02 = 02 .80 = 80 .18 (18)
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 End of Session

Thank You