Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 12 views

    Decision Making and Reasoning: Asma Kanwal Lecturer Department of Computer Science GC University Lahore

    Uploaded by

    Malik Faiz ali
    Judgment and decision making involves choosing between options or evaluating opportunities. Classical decision theory is based on rationality and mathematical models, but does not account for individual psychology. Subjective expected utility theory holds that individuals seek pleasure and avoid pain using subjective utility and probability assessments. Rather than comprehensive reasoning, people often satisfice by selecting the first satisfactory option, use elimination by aspects to compare options on single criteria, and apply heuristics and biases. Deductive reasoning involves necessary conclusions while inductive reasoning yields probable but uncertain conclusions based on observations.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content

    You might also like

    Decision Making and Reasoning: Asma Kanwal Lecturer Department of Computer Science GC University Lahore

    Uploaded by

    Malik Faiz ali
    12 views10 pages
    Judgment and decision making involves choosing between options or evaluating opportunities. Classical decision theory is based on rationality and mathematical models, but does not account for individual psychology. Subjective expected utility theory holds that individuals seek pleasure and avoid pain using subjective utility and probability assessments. Rather than comprehensive reasoning, people often satisfice by selecting the first satisfactory option, use elimination by aspects to compare options on single criteria, and apply heuristics and biases. Deductive reasoning involves necessary conclusions while inductive reasoning yields probable but uncertain conclusions based on observations.

    Original Description:

    Its about decision making of different process related to software engineering

    Original Title

    Decision making

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    Judgment and decision making involves choosing between options or evaluating opportunities. Classical decision theory is based on rationality and mathematical models, but does not account for individual psychology. Subjective expected utility theory holds that individuals seek pleasure and avoid pain using subjective utility and probability assessments. Rather than comprehensive reasoning, people often satisfice by selecting the first satisfactory option, use elimination by aspects to compare options on single criteria, and apply heuristics and biases. Deductive reasoning involves necessary conclusions while inductive reasoning yields probable but uncertain conclusions based on observations.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    12 views10 pages

    Decision Making and Reasoning: Asma Kanwal Lecturer Department of Computer Science GC University Lahore

    Uploaded by

    Malik Faiz ali
    Judgment and decision making involves choosing between options or evaluating opportunities. Classical decision theory is based on rationality and mathematical models, but does not account for individual psychology. Subjective expected utility theory holds that individuals seek pleasure and avoid pain using subjective utility and probability assessments. Rather than comprehensive reasoning, people often satisfice by selecting the first satisfactory option, use elimination by aspects to compare options on single criteria, and apply heuristics and biases. Deductive reasoning involves necessary conclusions while inductive reasoning yields probable but uncertain conclusions based on observations.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 10

    DECISION MAKING AND REASONING

    Asma Kanwal
    Lecturer
    Department Of Computer Science
    GC University Lahore
    JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING

     The goal of judgment and decision making is to select from among choices or to evaluate opportunities

    1. Classical Decision Theory


     Based on the assumption or rationality
     People make their choices so as to maximize something of value, whatever that something may be
     Mathematical models of human decision making
     Too restricted, does not take into account the psychological makeup of each individual decision maker
    CLASSICAL DECISION THEORY

    Subjective expected utility theory


     The goal of human action is to seek pleasure and avoid pain; in doing so each of us uses calculations of
     Subjective utility – based on the individual’s judged weightings of utility, rather than on objective criteria
     Subjective probability – based on the individual’s estimates of likelihood, rather than on objective statistical
    computations

    This theory is based on the belief that people seek to reach well-reasoned decisions based on
     Consideration of all possible known alternatives
     Use of a maximum amount of available information
     Careful assessing of costs and benefits and calculation of probability
     A maximum degree of sound reasoning
    CLASSICAL DECISION THEORY

    Satisficing
     Rather, we consider options one by one, and then we select an option as soon as we find one that is
    satisfactory or just good enough to meet our minimum level of acceptability
    Elimination by Aspects
     We focus on one aspect (attribute) of the various options, and we form a minimum criterion for that aspect
     We then eliminate all options that do not meet that criterion
    Heuristics and Biases
     When we use the heuristic of representativeness, in which we judge the probability of an uncertain event
    according to
     (1) how obviously it is similar to or representative of the population from which it is derived
     (2) the degree to which it reflects the salient features of the process by which it is generated
    REASONING

    People start with information and come to conclusions that go beyond that information

     Deductive reasoning
     When the information you have is correct, you can necessarily reach a conclusion.

     Inductive reasoning
     You can arrive at conclusions about what is probably true.
    DEDUCTIVE REASONING

     Conditional Reasoning
     Syllogism
    CONDITIONAL REASONING

     Obama is the president of the US.


     Only natural-born citizens of the US can serve as a president of the United States.
    Conclusion: Obama is a natural-born US citizen.

     Arnold is not a natural-born US citizen.


    Conclusion: Arnold cannot be a president of the US.
    SYLLOGISM REASONING

     Premises and categorical syllogisms

     Premise 1: All birds are animals.


     Premise 2: All animals eat food.
    Conclusion: All birds eat food.
    INDUCTIVE REASONING

     In inductive reasoning, which is based on our observations, reaching any logically certain conclusion is not possible
     The most we can strive to reach is only a strong, or highly probable, conclusion
     A key feature of inductive reasoning, which forms the basis of the empirical method, is that we cannot logically
    bound from saying
    INDUCTIVE REASONING EXAMPLES

     Will the stock market go up or down next year ?


     Which movie will win the Oscar?
     Does she say “yes” if I ask her to go out?
     How likely am I accepted to a medical school?
     How much money can I make if I choose carrier A?
     Is this plan likely to succeed?
     Is this guy a good fit for this job?

    You might also like