NAME: YOGESH TANAJI CHAURE.

CLASS: FINAL YEAR (B.TECH) CIVIL ENGINEERING.

PRN: 1551008.
TOPIC: RISK IDENTIFICATION AND COMMON RISK IN
CONSTRUCTION .
Guide
Dr. S. S. Pusadkar
Professor.
CONTENTS:
 Introduction.
 Risk in construction.
 General risk in India.
 Risk identification.
 Risk management approach.
 Risk analysis and evaluation process.
 Fuzzy logic use for risk identification.
 Case study.
 Conclusion.
INTRODUCTION:
Construction industry and risk in constructions.
What is risk ?
The uncertainty of the event.
Potential loss/gain.
Risk =f /(Uncertainty of event, Potential
loss/gain from event).
 Risk in Construction:
• Classification of risk.
1. Internal risks.
2. External risks.
• Characterization of risk and risk factors.
• Risk classification methods.

.
General risks in India:
Regulatory risks.
Design risks.
Natural risks.
Managerial risks.
Plant and equipment risks.
Political and social risks.
Economical and financial risks.
Cultural risks.
Risk Identification:
 Risk identification process.
 Risk identification tools and techniques.
1. documentation reviews.
2. expert judgment.
3. diagramming techniques.
4. assumption analysis.
5. information gathering.
 Difficulties in practice of tools and techniques in risk
identification
 Construction risk management system- CRMS Model.
 Risk identification process.
1. preliminary checklist.
2. Identify risk events/consequence scenarios.
3. Risk mapping.
4. Risk classification.
5. Risk category summery sheet.
3. Risk mapping
 4. Risk classification

Risk category Typical risks

Act of God Flood, earthquake, landslide, fire, wind, lightning.

Physical Damage to structure, damage to equipment, labour injuries.

Financial and Economical Inflation, availability of funds from client, exchange rate fluctuation, no convertibility.

Political and Environmental Changes in laws and regulation, war and civil disorder, pollution and safety rules, exploration,
embargoes.

Design Incomplete design scope, defective design, errors and omissions, different site condition.

Construction-related Weather delays, labour disputes and strikes, labour productivity, defective work, design
changes.
5.Risk category summery sheet:
Risk analysis and Evaluation process:
Data collection.
Modeling uncertainty.
Evaluation of potential impact of
risks
• Fuzzy sets where studied the mathematical representation of fuzzy terms, such as tall, hot,
and old. These types of term defined traditional truth representation in the two-valued
Aristotelian logic: true or false.
• The systems which were able to represent a range of truth values covering all real numbers
from 0 to 1.
• . A given real number in this range was able to represent the possibility that any given
statement was true or false. This work formed the basis of the inexact reasoning technique
named possibility theory.
 CASE STUDY
 Example based on fuzzy logic:
A simple example is used to illustrate the application of the fuzzy risk
assessment model. The risks associated with a labour-intensive
earthworks work package of a major project is considered. The concepts
and computations which are included in this example have been coded in
risk analysis and management software produced by the authors. The
calculations are described rather than detailed at each step for the sake of
brevity.
 Step 1:
The first step is to identify the risk sources using a risk structure map which shows that the stakeholders
have identified labour productivity and ground conditions as the main risks affecting the earthworks for this
project. The fuzzy associative memories (FAMs) that relate the risk factors likelihood and severity to the
magnitude of the risk are shown in Figure. This shows the rule set which defines the like hood and severity of a
given risk with its magnitude value. The letters L, M, and H in the table refer to the linguistic variables low,
medium, and high respectively.

Low = L = {1, 0.67, 0.33, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0}

Low-to-medium = LM = {0, 0, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0}
Medium = M = {0, 0, 0, 0, 0.5, 1, 0.5, 0, 0, 0,
0}
Medium-to-high = MH = {0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.5, 1,
0.5, 0, 0, 0}
High = H = {0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.33, 0.67, 1}
Step 2:
The second step involves the subjective assessment of the likelihood
of occurrence and severity of the individual risk factors as indicated in the
leaf nodes in Figure
Step 3:
The third step involves computing the severity
of each risk due to the effects of the risk factors
which have been assessed in step 2. Equations 1–5
are applied in computing the magnitude of each
risk and Eq. 7 is used to compute the total effect of
all risk factors influencing a risk. The results are
shown in Figure in italics.
Step 4:
The fourth step involves computing the changes induced in the performance measures of the work
package by the individual risks using Eqs 8–19. Then the total effect of the individual risks is computed
using Eqs 24–27.
EQUATIONS:
The likelihood of occurrence L, IF L AND V THEN E E’ °MET = T’ Q max = max (Q1,
the severity V, and the effect of a L’°MLE = EL E’ °MEC = C’ Q2,… Qn)
risk V ‘°MVE = EV E’ °MEQ = Q’ S max = max (S1,
factor E. E’ = EL’ ^ EV E’ ° MES = S’ S2,….Sn)
risk factor with likelihood L’ and E’ = E’1 < E’2 U E’ m T = T’1 UT’2 U T’n T = £ T max
severity V ’ , the effect on E or E max = max (E1, C = C’1 U C’2 U C’n C = £C max
induced fuzzy set can be found E2,…..En) Q = Q’1 U Q’2 U Q’n Q = £Q max
independently through E = £ E max S = S’1 U S’2 U S’n S = £ S max
composition. IF E THEN T T max = max (T1,
risk with effect E ’ the changes IF E THEN C T2,….Tn)
induced in T, C, Q, and S are T ’ , IF E THEN Q C max = max (C1,
C ’ , Q ’ , and S ’ , IF E THEN S C2,…Cn)
respectively
 CONCLUSION
 The study discusses a systematic review and detailed content analysis of
previous studies related to risk identification in the construction industry and
establishes r search areas in need of further examination.
 . Risk classification based on the nature and source of risks was the most
common method in the selected articles. common category names used for
classifying risks based on their nature were economic, political, construction,
financial, and management.
 The top five most frequently mentioned risks in the selected articles were
unpredicted change of inflation rate; design errors and poor engineering;
changes in government laws, regulations, and policies affecting the project;
adverse weather conditions (continuous rainfall, snow, temperature, wind); and
unpredicted adverse subsurface conditions
 risk classification methods for different contexts based on project type, project
location, project stakeholders, and project delivery type.
THANK YOU…