Part 2: Simulation Examples

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5. Simulation of a Bombing
Mission (1)
A bomber attempting to destroy an ammunition depot, as shown in
Figure. (This bomber has conventional rather than laser-guided
weapons). The bomber flies in the horizontal direction and
carries 10 bombs. The aiming point is (0,0).
If a bomb falls anywhere on the target, a hit is scored; otherwise,
the bomb is a miss.

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5. Simulation of a Bombing
Mission (2)
The point of impact is assumed to be normally distributed around the
aiming point with a standard deviation of 400 meters in the direction of
flight and 200 meters in the perpendicular direction
The problem is to simulate the operation and make statements about the
number of bombs on target.
Recall that the standardized normal variate, Z, having mean 0 and
standard deviation 1 is distributed as Z=(X-)/ , where X is a normal
random variable,  is the mean of distribution X and  is the standard
deviation of X
Then X=ZX and Y=ZY where (X,Y) are the simulated co-ordinates of the
bomb after it has fallen (What is the Mean???)
With X=400 and Y=200 we have X=400.Zi and Y=200.Zj
The i and j subscripts have been added to indicate that the values of Z
should be different. (Why???)
We will see later how to generate Normal Random Variables

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5. Simulation of a Bombing
Mission (3)
RNNx (RNNY) stands for "random normal number to
compute the X (Y) coordinate" and corresponds to Zi (Zj)

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5. Simulation of a Bombing
Mission (4)
An experiment was run with 400 trials (each trial 10 bombs)
The results range from two hits to ten hits. Average is 6.72 hits
44% [(175/400) x 100%] of the bombing runs there are six or fewer hits. In about 71
% of the cases, [(283/400) x 100%] there were six, seven, or eight hits

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Monte Carlo Method Vs. Stochastic Simulation

The term Monte Carlo is based on gambling like

principle and make use of random numbers for finding
the solutions in the problems.
Ex: Area of an irregular figure, numerical integration
etc.
The situations where random numbers are used for
solving problems, which are inherently stochastic in
nature are called as Stochastic simulation.
Ex: Gambling game, bombing problem, reliability
problem etc.

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