PENGURANGAN BULLWHIP EFFECT

DALAM RANTAI PASOK SINGLE

VENDOR DAN MULTI RETAILER
DI PT XYZ

AUTHOR AUTHOR
Feby Sanna Sibarani Dr. Meilita Tryana Sembiring, ST., MT.

Industrial Engineering Department – University of Sumatera Utara

 PT. Jentera Mas
Kantor Penjualan Binjai Indonesia
PT. SUGAR LABINTA

CV. Gunung Mas

Kantor Penjualan Kabanjahe
PT. GUNUNG SLAMET

PT. Sinar KP
Kantor Penjualan Deli Serdang

PT. ANCOL TERANG PT. Medan Sumber

Alam Semesta

PT. XYZ
Kantor Penjualan Medan
PT. Bandung Bina
PT. MULYA GLASS Distribusi
Kantor Penjualan Kisaran

CV. Mega Mas

PT. SINAR
JATIMULIA
Kantor Penjualan P. Brandan
RANTAI PASOK PT. XYZ CV. Sinar Indah

PDAM
Kantor Penjualan Tanjung Mulia CV. Projasa
 Based on
Fransoo and Wouters (2014)
P & G company when they experienced extensive demand
amplifications for their diaper product “Pampers”.

A straightforward measurement of the total bullwhip effect

requires data regarding all demand and orders at the
required level of detail

“AGGREGATION DATA”
Industrial Engineering Department – University of Sumatera Utara
 Based on
Forecasting from Supply Chain Level

Industrial Engineering Department – University of Sumatera Utara

 Metodologi Penelitian
(Tujuan : Melakukan peramalan permintaan pada periode mendatang)

Input Metodologi Output

Data Penjualan Produk pada Periode Melakukan perhitungan Error pada peramalan Peramalan pada Periode Mendatang yakni
Sebelumnya sebelumnya, Bullwhip Effect dan Penentuan peramalan dengan error terkecil.
Metode Peramalan terbaik dengan Menggunakan
4 Metode Peramalan. Peramalan yang terpilih
berdasarkan nilai perhitungan error yang
dilakukan (MAPE, MAD, dan MSD)

Industrial Engineering Department – University of Sumatera Utara

KANTOR PENJUALAN HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN
BULLWHIP EFFECT
KP
KP. KP. KP KP Deli KP P.
Periode KP Kisaran Tanjung
DISTER

Binjai Kabanjahe Medan Serdang Brandan

Mulia
2017 1,6198 1,4758 1,3044 1,1981 1,1975 1,3301 1,4109
2018 1,4162 1,1275 1,2128 1,1828 1,1710 1,1235 1,3108

PT. PT. PT. Medan

CV. CV. CV.
Jentera Bandung Sumber PT. Sinar CV
Periode Gunung Mega Sinar
Mas Bina Alam KP Projasa
Mas Mas Indah
Indonesia Distribusi Semesta
2017 1,4395 1,4564 1,2857 1,1865 1,3880 1,4803 1,2814 1,2348
2018 1,3456 1,0086 1,1499 1,1491 1,1396 1,4662 1,1574 1,0799

Industrial Engineering Department – University of Sumatera Utara

 REKAPITULASI PERAMALAN PADA
RANTAI PASOK
TREND LINEAR

PT. Jentera PT. Medan

Error CV. Gunung PT. Bandung Bina PT. Sinar CV. Mega CV. Sinar CV
No Mas Sumber Alam
Peramalan Mas Distribusi KP Mas Indah Projasa
Indonesia Semesta
1 MAPE 15 7 11 10 7 15 12 13
2 MAD 2.626 1.720 3.557 5.043 1.769 2.615 1.636 2.069
3 MSD 11.132.616 4.341.807 17.992.979 39.454.954 4.668.771 9.781.348 3.838.583 6.886.280

MOVING AVERAGE

PT. Jentera PT. Medan

Error CV. Gunung PT. Bandung CV. Mega CV. Sinar CV
No Mas Sumber Alam PT. Sinar KP
Peramalan Mas Bina Distribusi Mas Indah Projasa
Indonesia Semesta
1 MAPE 20 8 13 10 9 18 17 14
2 MAD 3.595 2.045 4.257 5.574 2.259 3.287 2.470 2.395
3 MSD 19.243.562 7.453.120 31.042.167 57.767.354 7.282.133 17.064.822 7.420.592 11.531.347
 REKAPITULASI PERAMALAN PADA
RANTAI PASOK
SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Error PT. Jentera CV. Gunung PT. Bandung PT. Medan Sumber CV. Mega CV. Sinar CV
No PT. Sinar KP
Peramalan Mas Indonesia Mas Bina Distribusi Alam Semesta Mas Indah Projasa

1 MAPE 19 8 12 10 10 16 15 15
2 MAD 3.274 1.976 3.736 5.607 2.251 2.907 2.104 2.484

3 MSD 16.668.779 6.210.191 26.839.050 60.736.586 6.935.710 13.543.378 5.985.751 10.659.716

WINTER’S METHOD

Error PT. Jentera CV. Gunung PT. Bandung PT. Medan Sumber CV. Mega CV. Sinar CV
No PT. Sinar KP
Peramalan Mas Indonesia Mas Bina Distribusi Alam Semesta Mas Indah Projasa

1 MAPE 0,19 0,6 2 1 0,6 0,3 3 2

2 MAD 36,18 149,7 680 664 153,2 53,17 476 361
3 MSD 2168,19 35.516,8 747.130 714.788 36.486,9 4.888,22 319.937 207.535
“WINTER’S METHOD”
PERAMALAN DATA SEBELUMNYA

Industrial Engineering Department – University of Sumatera Utara

 Metode
Peramalan
yang Tepat